Region G 0 - 1 pts

Muleys24Seven · Mar 2, 2011

Does anybody know what the specific drawing odds are for a group applicaiton with >0 - <1pt for a region G special non-res tag? The F&G draw odds report lumps this group together and gives it a ~75% chance. However a group with .8pts will draw before a group with .2pts. So I guess my question is...what fraction of point do you think will draw the tag?

What about previous years. For those of you that have gone into the draw with between 0-1pts and were unsuccessful how many pts did you have?

Thanks in advance!

kilowatt · Mar 2, 2011

I got a Region G tag 4 years running as a NR but that was in the early 90's.....not the same anymore.

Brian
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TOPGUN · Mar 2, 2011

What you are asking is really impossible to tell from one year to the next. This year it may not even drop down below 1PP before the tags run out. Then again, there may hardly be any groups in the draw with a fraction below 1. Obviously, the closer your fraction of a point is to the full 1 point the better you will be, but that's about it!

littlebighorn · Mar 2, 2011

According to Eastman's Journal Region G had 64% of 2 point people drawing, which probably means 3+ this year, unless you do the Special (extra Money) which had 31% draw odds with 0 points. $$$

TOPGUN · Mar 2, 2011

littlebighorn---I don't know where they got their numbers, because right in the G&F odds on the website it shows you had to have at least a fraction of a point to have any chance at a tag in that draw. All he is asking is if they can draw a tag in the Special PP Drawing with a fraction of a point, and the only answer based on last year is MAYBE!!! Nobody with O PPs drew a tag in that draw last year, so I don't know where that 31% came from.

littlebighorn · Mar 2, 2011

Topgun,
I don't know how they got their percentage and you are exactly right in that you will need to have at least a fraction of a point to have a chance at drawing.
I was just trying to make the point that you have NO chance with less than 3 points unless you go with the Special drawing. That was the only point I was trying to make.

Maybe their "31%" factored in that some guys in groups had 0 points. Who knows how Guy and the boys got those numbers.
You are also very right in that, nobody knows because we are only speculating on what will happen this year, based on what happened last year.

Muleys24Seven · Mar 2, 2011

Thanks guys!

I did just find in 2007 they recorded the drawing odds for people that had a fraction of a pt. Looked like you needed >.25pts at that time to draw. We'll see if that holds true this year.

Good luck to everyone