Score Contest Thru #27

[npaden]

Okay, I have the contest updated through #27. Really the results didn't change things much since nearly everyone ended up missing it so badly that it ended up being a throw away score for them (except the poor guys that didn't have a score to give up).

As always, please let me know if you see an error and please double check the individual contest score results where you can see the individual guesses on each animal instead of just the summary format that I have for the overall contest.

Just 2 more contests to go!

Here's it is. Getting harder and harder to make it readable. Click on the links for the full size images.

http://padens.com/v-web/gallery/albums/mmcontest/MM_Score_Contest_2011_27_Page_2.sized.jpg[img]

[URL]http://padens.com/v-web/gallery/mmcontest/MM_Score_Contest_2011_27_Page_1?full=1[/URL]

[URL]http://padens.com/v-web/gallery/mmcontest/MM_Score_Contest_2011_27_Page_2?full=1[/URL]

Top 3 spots all stayed the same and Trix4me jumped into the 4 spot.

DaneA is still hanging in 7th for at least this week even though he hasn't even entered the last 3 contests in a row. Next week he will drop out if he doesn't enter because he will have under the minimum contests entered though.

lostinOregon and jabber are new to the top 10 this week even though lostinOregon didn't enter the contest for week 27 they still moved up a few spots because they had a lower score that they were dropping that moved into the scores that count column.

Looking toward where this is going, downhill still looks like he has the advantage with a 13.25 score left to drop if he blows another contest. I actually am not sitting too horribly bad with a 14.75 score left to drop if I need it.

theox is going to either need some easy contests or some really good guesses to move up, he has some pretty big numbers already getting dropped now.

It is going to be tough for a dark horse to come up from the ranks and grab this, I'm thinking downhill is at least a 50% favorite to win it all.

The tougher contests actually seem to help the guys in the lead because they just drop the new contest score and count one of their older scores that they were getting to drop. The average difference including penalty on that last one was over 61" off and even the winner was over 12.625" off which was worse than the score that downhill had been dropping that he ended up having to count.

Clear as mud?

Oh well, let me know if anyone sees an error that I need to correct.

Thanks, Nathan

P.S. - Oh yeah, slcmuley isn't in last place anymore!

 

[BrowningRage]

So I really don't know why I haven't thought of this before, until npaden mentioned DaneA having the last 3 guesses blank... I realized that for DaneA, those last 3 blanks don't count against him, because he still has 3 scores thrown out...

So, Can I just withdraw my guesses for weeks 19, 25, and 27...?? Leave those blank for me, and then throw out my next 3 highest scores...??

Am I missing something..?? Maybe I'm not thinking straight... Been starin at reports too long today... lol

Thanks for doing this for us Nathan...

"Therefore, wo be unto him that is at ease in Zion!" 2 Ne. 28: 24

 

[BrowningRage]

Just to clarify, blank weeks should fill in the "throw out scores" slots... That way, guys can't simlpy skip the hardest weeks and not have it count against them...

Am I right..?? Am I suddenly losing it..?? LOL


"Therefore, wo be unto him that is at ease in Zion!" 2 Ne. 28: 24

 

[npaden]

You're losing it! ;-)

A blank week counts the same as a bad guess. If you enter all 15 contests you get to throw out a total of 3 guesses. If you only enter 12 contests you don't get to throw out any guesses.

When it is all said and done, 12 scores will count toward the final standings.

 

[npaden]

Just to clarify, the spreadsheet computes the 3 worst guesses in the "Large 1, Large 2, Large 3" columns, but it only throws them out if you have entered into enough contests.

DaneA is a good example. He has only entered 10 contests so the "Drop" column shows he has 0 scores to drop. All 10 of his guesses count toward his net total. You can see that he has 61.125" for his total and the same number for his net.

Trix4me is another example. He has only entered 12 contests so the drop column shows he only gets to drop 2 scores. The spreadsheet computes his 3 largest differences, but only lets him drop 2 of them. His total difference is 146.625 less his 2 largest differences of 60.5 and 31.875 gets his net score to 54.25. It shows his 3rd largest difference is 10.5, but because he missed out on entering a contest that number actually is included in his net score.

Make sense?

 

[npaden]

The way Curtis is running the final 2 contests really is going to make things interesting and really could shake things up to where a dark horse still has a chance.

With the huge penalty numbers if the top 2 or 3 guys blew both of the contests they could easily drop down quite a bit. downhill still has the advantage because I think he could blow one of them and he would still be in the top 4 just adding in his worst score. One of the guys in the top 4 would need to get within the penalty range on both of the remaining contest to jump over him.

With that said all of the guys up there at the top have shown that they can get pretty close on individual animals and legitimately should be able to get within 5" in at least one or maybe both of the remaining contests.

The pressure is for sure on those top guys!

At least they are fairly typical bucks and not some 300" monster nontypical! ;-)

 

[BrowningRage]

Thanks man- I didn't look at the Totals and the Nets at the end... now it makes perfect sense... I had definitely been writing reports too long yesterday. Wish today was different, but it's not. Thanks


"Therefore, wo be unto him that is at ease in Zion!" 2 Ne. 28: 24

 

[npaden]

Well, just over 24 hours until the contest ends and I'm still trying to figure out who's going to win. downhill still has the advantage after going through the numbers.

I think marley and twoshooter are the only ones in the top 10 that haven't submitted their scores yet for contests #28 and #29.

theox needs to makeup 4.5" to win, never_satisfied needs 7.375" and Trix4me needs 10.00".

On contest 28, downhill's guess is within .25" of theox and on contest 29 downhills guess is within 1.375" of theox. Even if theox is on the correct side on both guesses he is only going to makeup 1.625". Mathmatically theox can't win unless downhill misses by more than 5" on one of his guesses and theox doesn't.

Never_satisfied is a little farther from downhill with 2.75" on contest 28 and 1.5" on contest 29 but again that is only 4.25" total so the only way he is going to win is if downhill misses one of his guesses by over 5" and he doesn't.

Trix4me does have room for a win with his guess being 8.125" higher than downhill's on #28 and 6.375" lower than downhill's on #29 for a total of 14.5" difference. Trix4me is the big wildcard, if these bucks are tricky he could well end up being the winner of the contest. Not sure if he knows something about these bucks that the rest of us aren't seeing or if he is just going out on a limb to give him at least a chance of winning the contest.

The penalty really is still a big wildcard though. 5" isn't a whole lot of leaway and if any of the top guys misses by that 5" it will blow them up.

I'll be happy to just stay in the top 10! ;-)

 

[npaden]

LAST EDITED ON Jul-19-11 AT 02:49PM (MST)[p]Okay, marley just entered his scores and is giving himself a shot at it anyway.

There are several different scenarios, but it looks like in most of them downhill is going to hold on if buck #28 scores between 156.75" and 166.75" AND buck #29 scores between 158.5" and 168.5".

marley and Trix4me both have a shot if either buck scores outside those ranges.

If both bucks end up going 167" or more then marley has the inside track.

If buck #28 goes 167" or more AND buck #29 goes 158.375" or less then Trix4me has the inside track.

theox and Never_satisfied both still have a chance at winning, but they are both very narrow windows.

 

[never_satisfied]

After seeing downhills scores I thought about doing the same thing trix4me is doing and go -4" on #28 and +4 on #29 from downhills scores to give me a shot
But I came up with about the same scores as downhill and I just don't see him getting them that far off
But I do see a pretty good chance on moving up to #2.But as the saying goes second place is the first looser

 

[Trix4me]

You guys give me way too much credit. I'm not that smart.