Tag quota/allocation question

SDBugler · Mar 1, 2013

I don't want this thread to get into a debate about the whole SB196 issue relating to tag allocation policy, but I do have a question on how it is being implemented.

I am doing research for this year?s applications and as I was going through the youth bull elk hunts. I noticed something that has me puzzled. 6 of the 9 available youth bull elk hunts offer 25 total tags. Looking at the drawing statistics for these hunts I noticed that all 6 hunts issued only 1 tag to NR and 3 tags to outfitter pool.

According to state statue ?If the determination of the percentages in Subsection B of this section yields a fraction of five-tenths or greater, the number of licenses to be issued shall be rounded up to the next whole number?. Therefore, what is the determining factor when the percentages for multiple groups have a percentage equal to or greater than .5?

For example:
25 tags x 84% for residents = 21 tags
25 tags x 6% for non-residents = 1.5 which by statute should be rounded up to 2 tags
25 tags x 10% for outfitters = 2.5 should by statute should be rounded up to 3 tags

Now I know they can't issue 26 tags, but why did they round down every time for NR tags and round up every time for outfitter tags? Are they technically implementing this illegally by rounding down for the NR tags?

Shouldn?t the fair solution for this issue come down to the sequence of the draw? For example in the case listed above, shouldn't the NR?s be guaranteed at least 1 tag and the outfitters guaranteed at least 2 tags, then during the sequence of the draw the first of either of these two pools to exceed their base number would get the ?extra? tag and that pool would round up and the other pool would then round down?

Another one of the hunts offered 75 tags and for that hunt they issued only 4 tags to NR?s (rounded down from 4.5) and issued 8 tags to outfitters (rounded up from 7.5).

Did the NR youth hunters pool get potentially 7 less tags at the expense of the outfitters pool? This may not seem like much but when you consider that they issued only 11 total NR youth bull tags it is a big factor.

Of the total 250 available tags offered for youth hunters to harvest a bull 210 (84%) went to residents, 11 (4.4%) went to NR, and 29 (11.6%) went to outfitter pool.

Am I missing something??? Can someone clear this up for me?
Thanks.

Please note: I'm not whining or complaining, I just want to understand how the system works.

NMaddict · Mar 2, 2013

I am also interested in an explanation for this. In many cases there is one NR youth tag instead of 2. Consequently cutting the kids odds in half and giving the extra tag to the outfitters. I know someone out there has an answer.

1FastGambler · Mar 2, 2013

Very interesting to say the least.

Why don't you call the G&F and ask them?

delmag1942 · Mar 3, 2013

SD.......My guess would be the "0.5" rule is trumpted by the 16% NR total, of course rounding up in relation to the outfitter tags. The result of this ends up being the total of 7 tags.

David

SDBugler · Mar 7, 2013

Well this has gotten more interesting. I have been exchanging emails with NMGF and also doing some additional research on last year's draws. Here are a few items I will share:

When I first contacted NMGF about this, their reply was:

"Our code is written to follow the way statute defines fulfillment. First, we look at the 10% pool, if there is a .50 it gets rounded up first, then we fulfill the 6% . As you can see, 10% and 6% are subsets of (1), so once we are at 16% total, we move to (2) and the 84%."

I responded with a comment that the statute does NOT indicate that the draw be conducted in a "sequential" order (that outfitter pool gets drawn first and that the NR pool gets drawn second). In fact, the statute indicates "AND" for subsets 1.a and 1.b and 2. This means ALL criteria need to be addressed and that it doesn't indicate ?THEN?. NMGF had supposedly drawn the outfitter tags first and gave them the benefit of rounding up first. Then they went to the NR draw and rounded up ONLY if it didn't exceed the 16%. I would like to remind everyone that NOTHING IN THE STATUTE SAYS OUTFITTERS GET THE FIRST CHANCE AT THE ?EXTRA? ROUNDED UP TAG.

This affects more than just the youth tags. It affects ANY hunt that issues 25 tags, 75 tags, 125 tags, 175 tags, 225 tags, 275 tags, etc. I found 31 elk hunts from last year where this occurred (that both the NR tag calculation and the outfitter tag calculation came up as .50). In EVERY instance they rounded up for the outfitter and rounded down for the NR. As a result the NR's lost potentially 31 tags to outfitters or residents. This includes some very coveted tags!! Below is a list of hunts that potentially lost a NR tag:

ELK-1-103 2
ELK-1-237 16A - MI
ELK-1-238 16A - 1
ELK-1-239 16A - 2
ELK-1-250 16C - YOUTH
ELK-1-258 16D - MI
ELK-1-266 16E - YOUTH
ELK-1-287 21B - 1
ELK-1-296 23 - YOUTH
ELK-1-298 23 - 1
ELK-1-305 34 - YOUTH
ELK-1-335 49 - 2
ELK-1-340 53 - 1
ELK-1-341 53 - 2
ELK-2-152 5B ? 1 ARCHERY
ELK-2-153 5B ? 2 ARCHERY
ELK-2-216 13 ? 1 ARCHERY
ELK-2-218 13 ? 3 ARCHERY
ELK-2-248 16C ? 2 ARCHERY
ELK-2-249 16C ? 3 ARCHERY
ELK-2-271 17 ? 1 ARCHERY
ELK2-272 17 ? 2 ARCHERY
ELK2-294 23 ? 2 ARCHERY
ELK2-351 37 ARCHERY
ELK-3-102 1 MUZZLELOADER
ELK-3-219 13 YOUTH MUZZLELOADER
ELK-3-220 13 MUZZLELOADER
ELK-3-228 15 YOUTH MUZZLELOADER
ELK-3-274 17 YOUTH MUZZLELOADER
ELK-3-277 17 ? 3 MUZZLELOADER
ELK-3-297 23 MUZZLELOADER

After doing some additional research I noticed that the NMGF response about how they conducted the calculations/draw process didn't fully answer the dilemma. The following units never made the 16% cap after the second round, however, they never rounded up for the NR tag allocation. I believe these hunts were definitely allocated against state statute for NR tag allocation:

ELK-1-335 Unit 49 ? 2 75 total tags 68 resident 4 NR 3 outfitter
ELK-1-340 Unit 53 ? 1 75 total tags 66 resident 4 NR 5 outfitter
ELK-1-341 Unit 53 ? 2 125 total tags 114 resident 7 NR 4 outfitter
ELK-2-152 Unit 5B ? 1 ARCHERY 75 total tags 71 resident 4 NR 0 outfitter
ELK-2-153 Unit 5B ? 2 ARCHERY 75 total tags 71 resident 4 NR 0 outfitter
ELK-3-102 Unit 1 MUZZLELOADER 125 total tags 107 resident 7 NR 11 outfitter

This is 6 less tags (equivalent to 20%!!)
If you were one of the applicants that included one of these tags in your first, second or third choice last year and didn't draw a tag then you were robbed of a chance for another tag in each of these hunts.

I have done a cursory review and found that this same process was used in the deer and antelope draws. I haven't gone through and found out the potential loss of tags to NR?s though.

My latest response from NMGF was ?Thank you for your comments and observations. I will forward them for consideration.?

It really looks to me like the NR?s are getting robbed of tags.

NMPaul · Mar 7, 2013

>Well this has gotten more interesting.
> I have been exchanging
>emails with NMGF and also
>doing some additional research on
>last year's draws. Here
>are a few items I
>will share:
>
>When I first contacted NMGF about
>this, their reply was:
>
>"Our code is written to follow
>the way statute defines fulfillment.
> First, we look at
>the 10% pool, if there
>is a .50 it
>gets rounded up first, then
>we fulfill the 6% .
> As you can see,
>10% and 6% are subsets
>of (1), so once we
>are at 16% total, we
>move to (2) and the
>84%."
>
>I responded with a comment that
>the statute does NOT indicate
>that the draw be conducted
>in a "sequential" order (that
>outfitter pool gets drawn first
>and that the NR pool
>gets drawn second). In
>fact, the statute indicates "AND"
>for subsets 1.a and 1.b
>and 2. This means
>ALL criteria need to be
>addressed and that it doesn't
>indicate ?THEN?. NMGF had
>supposedly drawn the outfitter tags
>first and gave them the
>benefit of rounding up first.
> Then they went to
>the NR draw and rounded
>up ONLY if it didn't
>exceed the 16%. I
>would like to remind everyone
>that NOTHING IN THE STATUTE
>SAYS OUTFITTERS GET THE FIRST
>CHANCE AT THE ?EXTRA? ROUNDED
>UP TAG.
>
>This affects more than just the
>youth tags. It affects
>ANY hunt that issues 25
>tags, 75 tags, 125 tags,
>175 tags, 225 tags, 275
>tags, etc. I found
>31 elk hunts from last
>year where this occurred (that
>both the NR tag calculation
>and the outfitter tag calculation
>came up as .50).
>In EVERY instance they rounded
>up for the outfitter and
>rounded down for the NR.
> As a result the
>NR's lost potentially 31 tags
>to outfitters or residents.
>This includes some very coveted
>tags!! Below is a
>list of hunts that potentially
>lost a NR tag:
>
>ELK-1-103 2
>ELK-1-237 16A - MI
>ELK-1-238 16A - 1
>ELK-1-239 16A - 2
>ELK-1-250 16C - YOUTH
>ELK-1-258 16D - MI
>ELK-1-266 16E - YOUTH
>ELK-1-287 21B - 1
>ELK-1-296 23 - YOUTH
>ELK-1-298 23 - 1
>ELK-1-305 34 - YOUTH
>ELK-1-335 49 - 2
>ELK-1-340 53 - 1
>ELK-1-341 53 - 2
>ELK-2-152 5B ? 1 ARCHERY
>ELK-2-153 5B ? 2 ARCHERY
>ELK-2-216 13 ? 1 ARCHERY
>ELK-2-218 13 ? 3 ARCHERY
>ELK-2-248 16C ? 2 ARCHERY
>ELK-2-249 16C ? 3 ARCHERY
>ELK-2-271 17 ? 1 ARCHERY
>ELK2-272 17 ? 2 ARCHERY
>ELK2-294 23 ? 2 ARCHERY
>ELK2-351 37 ARCHERY
>ELK-3-102 1 MUZZLELOADER
>ELK-3-219 13 YOUTH MUZZLELOADER
>ELK-3-220 13 MUZZLELOADER
>ELK-3-228 15 YOUTH MUZZLELOADER
>ELK-3-274 17 YOUTH MUZZLELOADER
>ELK-3-277 17 ? 3 MUZZLELOADER
>ELK-3-297 23 MUZZLELOADER
>
>
>After doing some additional research I
>noticed that the NMGF response
>about how they conducted the
>calculations/draw process didn't fully answer
>the dilemma. The following
>units never made the 16%
>cap after the second round,
>however, they never rounded up
>for the NR tag allocation.
> I believe these hunts
>were definitely allocated against state
>statute for NR tag allocation:
>
>
>ELK-1-335 Unit 49
>? 2 75 total tags
>
> 68 resident
>
> 4
>NR
> 3 outfitter
>ELK-1-340 Unit 53
>? 1 75 total tags
>
> 66 resident
>
> 4 NR
>
>5 outfitter
>ELK-1-341 Unit 53
>? 2 125 total tags
>
> 114 resident
>
> 7 NR
>
>4 outfitter
>ELK-2-152 Unit 5B
>? 1 ARCHERY 75 total
>tags
> 71 resident
>
> 4 NR
>
> 0 outfitter
>ELK-2-153 Unit 5B
>? 2 ARCHERY 75 total
>tags
> 71 resident
>
> 4 NR
>
> 0 outfitter
>ELK-3-102 Unit 1
>MUZZLELOADER 125 total tags
>
> 107 resident
>
> 7 NR
> 11
>outfitter
>
>This is 6 less tags (equivalent
>to 20%!!)
>If you were one of the
>applicants that included one of
>these tags in your first,
>second or third choice last
>year and didn't draw a
>tag then you were robbed
>of a chance for another
>tag in each of these
>hunts.
>
>I have done a cursory review
>and found that this same
>process was used in the
>deer and antelope draws.
>I haven't gone through and
>found out the potential loss
>of tags to NR?s though.
>
>
>My latest response from NMGF was
>?Thank you for your comments
>and observations. I will
>forward them for consideration.?
>
>It really looks to me like
>the NR?s are getting robbed
>of tags.

Brian, can't you pesky NRs be happy with one tag per unit?

SDBugler · Mar 7, 2013

Hey Paul
Yes just another NR trying to squeeze every opportunity out of the system!!!
Like I said in my O.P., I'm not complaining or whining just looking at the facts and was originally trying to get my arms around how the draw process actually occurs.

I know one tag here and one tag there doesn't seem like much, but when I was going thru the NR youth tags it was starting to add up to a significant percentage. Only 11 NR youth tags were issued last year. Depending on how they factored in rounding up or rounding down for these hunts it could have ranged between 11 ? 18 tags for a difference of 63% of potential tags available!!!

As anyone reading this post can tell, I'm pretty anal when it comes to analyzing draw statistics as part of my research. On a side note - there were 490 total tag choices for NR youth. Making a very general assumption that every NR youth put in for all three choices (to maximize their chance of drawing), means there were approximately 164 total applicants. Assuming 11 tags would result in a 6.7% change of drawing. Assuming 18 tags would raise the chance of drawing up to 11%!! These isolated few ?extra? tags make a huge difference.

PS ? I love hunting in NM and I think the NMGF has done an excellent job of managing their herds and their hunts. I have also met a lot of great people in NM. I also realize that my two older sons and I have had more than our fair share of luck drawing tags and have had some incredible hunts so we have no room for complaining!!!! However, I do have one more son (12 years old) that hasn't drawn a tag yet, and I would like him to have the opportunity to experience the great hunting that NM has to offer.

NMPaul · Mar 7, 2013

Brian, you are right, NM has done a fantastic job with youth hunts. None of the other western states are even close to taking care of it's young hunters.
Something we all got to keep in mind when moaning about NMG&F.

Hope your 12 year old son can get out here for some hunts.

This application season is maybe the most important part of the hunting year. If you apply right, you put the odds in your favor.

darrack10 · Mar 8, 2013

LAST EDITED ON Mar-08-13 AT 04:56PM (MST)[p]i really appreciate your observation and work on this matter i was once in the same shoes you are in and i had the same questions. If this is true it needs to get fixed. i have always believed that they should change the draw anyway. outfitters should be allocated thier own tags and not be in the draw at all. 90%r 10%nr or 88r 12 nr. Jmo but i do believe that your hard work on this matter should have a resolution i hope you get it.

delmag1942 · Mar 8, 2013

Brian, I too have noticed that some do not yield the 16%. On the majority of those that I had looked at, there were no (or not enough) outfitter applicants to get to the 10%. The "leftovers" in that situation appear to go to the R rather than the DIY NR. I just figure NM as a lottery ticket, because trying to make sense of the draw is like chasing your tail!

David

SDBugler · Mar 9, 2013

David
The NR and OF percentages are "maximums" while the Res pool is a "minimum". Therefore any leftover tags from either pool go to the Residents.

nwHunter · Mar 9, 2013

I have asked the same question for the valles caldera hunts. With 15 tags the 10% nonres guided is 1.5 tags but they coudnt confirm last year if that would be 1 tags or 2 for sure. I asked the same question this year and havent heard back yet. On a hunt like the caldera its a bummer to be forced to spend a bunch of unnecessary money to get in the outfitter pool to increase your odds a bunch on a hunt that most people dont need or want a guide for. I understand the view of the outfitters but some hunts it shouldnt apply just my opinion of course. nwhunter