This Winter !!

chipc · Nov 7, 2012

I'm no expert but based upon what I saw in several areas of wyoming last week if there is any kind of nasty winter it will be devastating to the deer and antelope. While there was decent feed up high, on the winter range there is none. I mean none. The sage has no green shoots at all and the scatered sparse tufts of grass are no longer than my lawn. cross your fingers for an el nino or something that will help the few remaining critters.

BuzzH · Nov 7, 2012

Near 70 degree weather in November is a good thing.

With NO snow accumulation at all to this point, there is no reason for deer and antelope to even be on winter range yet.

I think theres some serious over-reacting going on.

WapitiBob · Nov 7, 2012

I need snow in 58. Got a Cow tag to fill.

DougW · Nov 7, 2012

guys- ive been doing this weather thing in the west for the last 30+ years. I always tell people that anyone who thinks there is any significant accuracy to a winter forecast for more than 10 days in the western US, is either selling something or a bit distorted on reality.

This storm this weekend looks to me like a decent snow producer for primarily the western mountains of WY (I'm talking thru Sunday or so). Otherwise, the dry conditions are going to persist through the weekend, but the winds will increase and you can forget the mild temps after about Friday, statewide.

After that, what i'm seeing on the current model forecasts is another week or so of continued mild (though not nearly as warm as this week) with some brief periods of moisture in the favored higher-elevation locations, especially the western portion.

There is a distinct lack of cold air outbreaks moving south out of Canada during the week or so after this weekend. This is a big deal in mid-november as some past novembers produce wideapread subzero conditions in WY by mid-month. Not this year, through the next 10 days or so anyways.

After that, stay tuned, as there is a lot of uncertainty. I don't know whether this is useful to anyone, but I hope so.

brdhuntr · Nov 7, 2012

I agree with Chip, with a 108 year drought from this year, we need alot of moisture for sure. And it's a good thing there aren't anymore animals on the winter range because they'd be eating DIRT! And i'm talking the Douglas Casper area..

BuzzH · Nov 7, 2012

> I agree with Chip, with
>a 108 year drought from
>this year, we need alot
>of moisture for sure. And
>it's a good thing there
>aren't anymore animals on the
>winter range because they'd be
>eating DIRT! And i'm talking
>the Douglas Casper area..

Really?

Whats all that stuff cluttering up the picture of my leftover pronghorn just North of Casper? Dirt?

nontypical · Nov 7, 2012

On many winter ranges deer will begin to accumulate regardless of snow amounts.Lots of does head for winter range with the first decent snowfall of the season.As you all know,bucks will go where the does are.
I've heard G&F personnel echo the same comments that Chip is.
I do agree that our present weather is good;however,we need moisture in copious amounts before June,while temps remain mild.Anything else will not bode well for deer and antelope.

DougW · Nov 7, 2012

this is the NOAA estimated 60-day liquid precip totals through yesterday

Obviously these are estimates based mostly on radar (sparse data and blocking can be a major issue in WY) but also based to some degree on gauge data and satellite. Keep in mind snow measurements are much less accurate in general than rain measurements.

Bottom line: aside from the extreme southeast and the northwest mountains, the drought is continuing, particularly in the lower elevations of the central portion of the state.

DougW · Nov 7, 2012

Buzz-very nice. I've never been convinced that horn growth on goats is proportional to same-year moisture. It's a bit more complicated than that.

At the same time clearly winter survival is dependent on the sage/grass growth in the previous season. No doubt about that.

BuzzH · Nov 7, 2012

With the great moisture we had the year before last, there is still a lot of plant growth that wasnt utilized last year, in particular browse species.

Combine that with already lower ungululate populations, you just dont need much to carry over what we have.

Would be another story if the populations were on a high cycle, but they arent. Would be a different story if we hadnt had awesome plant growth 2 of the last 3 years.

I dont see the dire situation that others do...

chipc · Nov 7, 2012

Hope you're right Buzz. I don't think I'm over reacting. As I said, I'm no expert but the winter range in the areas where I was are in the worst shape I've seen in 30 years of hunting wyoming. Take a drive south of Casper and Look at the Ferris / Seminoe winter range between Ferris and Table mountain - south of the ferris rd. I think you'll understand what I'm talking about. Thats just one example. You may be right about some carry over vegetation (sage)in areas that aren't cattle grazed but not in the areas that are. Most winter range that I know of is cattle country too.

BuzzH · Nov 7, 2012

I hunted all that country this year and have for the last 12.

I think its in better shape than it was in the early 2000's after extended years of drought, again specific to browse species that are the most critical on winter range. The first years I hunted there a majority of the sage, aspen, chokecherry, serviceberry, and even snowberry were wayy heavier utilized and clubbed to the point of being almost useless to big-game. Its much better now.

The grass doesnt look great, but the browse is actually pretty good, IMO. Its far from perfect, but its certainly better than when I first hunted it. Plus, like I said, theres a lot fewer animals now than there were then.

I think with basically no winter up until now, unless we have prolonged cold or heavy snow, the animals will be just fine.

They do have legs...and a brain.

brdhuntr · Nov 7, 2012

Almost sounds like a government employee answer.LOL

BuzzH · Nov 7, 2012

Sounds more like an answer from someone who spent a little time hunting in Wyoming in 2012 to me.

Just sayin'.

LOL

mmwb · Nov 7, 2012

"anyone who thinks there is any significant accuracy to a winter forecast for more than 10 days in the western US, is either selling something or a bit distorted on reality."

+1

Both the quality and the quantity of forage weigh into the formula. I expect some areas the animals will winter will be okay if the weather isn't too destructive. In other areas, it will need to be a mild winter or more kill will be evident. Sage is not generally the number one choice for mule deer and the other browse (some of which Buzz indicated) will be key for nutritional value. The difference might come into play with the plants that generally frost kill in the fall. Deer find value in ensilage (the plants that the frost kill basically make edible to them by changing or releasing the toxins found in them earlier in the year). Areas where those plants did not thrive because of the drought, may be more problematic. I really don't know the role ensilage plays in winter feed. It is significant in the late fall as the deer ready for the rut and following winter, though in the higher areas the drought was not such an issue.

Sage can be a major life saver if the protein content of the sage is sufficient. In some areas it looks healthy. In other areas it is pitiful. That is a problem beyond the drought.

The two high country deer we killed in western Wyoming were loaded with fat, inside and out. The antelope we killed in south west Wyoming were completely lean.

I hope we get lots of heavy snow up high, moderate amounts down low, warm temps and low winds (I realize we would cease to be Wyoming if that happened) this winter.

DougW · Nov 8, 2012

Good info. mmwb, and buzz makes a good point that in most areas deer/ant populations are down, so that could ease the pressure some on the available forage.

Also even if the low-elevation winter is not severe, one of those Mar/Apr/May wet blizzards with 3 feet and 50mph winds can put down animals that would otherwise be fine into the summer.