Ok, I think I know how you could figure true drawing odds for Nevada. However, I don't think there is any way to obtain the information to figure it.
Lets say you wanted to figure odds for area 6 late.
You would have to take every application that lists area 6 late as a choice, any choice 1-5 and put them in a pool of hunt numbers. Then you would have to take all the bonus points that accompany those applications, square them, and put all those numbers into the pool. That would give you your total number pool. Of course each applicant is only going to end up with 1 number in the actual draw, lowest number of all his randomly selected numbers. But the odds have to take into account ALL numbers in the pool. Lets say for argument that total number pool is 10000. Divide that number by the number of tags issued and you have your odds.
Now, individual odds would depend on your own numbers. Lets say you have 5 bonus points. That means you would have a 26 in 10000 chance of having the lowest number. You then would have to factor out all the numbers of people who drew in a different area before the draw came to you as an applicant. Also, you don't have to have the lowest draw number obviously. If theres 100 tags you only have to have one of the lowest 100, not counting those who are out before you, drawing in another area.
Wow, Am I missing anything here?
Lets say you wanted to figure odds for area 6 late.
You would have to take every application that lists area 6 late as a choice, any choice 1-5 and put them in a pool of hunt numbers. Then you would have to take all the bonus points that accompany those applications, square them, and put all those numbers into the pool. That would give you your total number pool. Of course each applicant is only going to end up with 1 number in the actual draw, lowest number of all his randomly selected numbers. But the odds have to take into account ALL numbers in the pool. Lets say for argument that total number pool is 10000. Divide that number by the number of tags issued and you have your odds.
Now, individual odds would depend on your own numbers. Lets say you have 5 bonus points. That means you would have a 26 in 10000 chance of having the lowest number. You then would have to factor out all the numbers of people who drew in a different area before the draw came to you as an applicant. Also, you don't have to have the lowest draw number obviously. If theres 100 tags you only have to have one of the lowest 100, not counting those who are out before you, drawing in another area.
Wow, Am I missing anything here?
