Understanding Draw Odds?

[BaldBeaver]

LAST EDITED ON Nov-27-13 AT 12:44PM (MST)[p]As a new Resident I am extremely excited to hunt in New Mexico. I have been doing a ton of research and know where I want to put in to hunt elk for the very first time. The issue I am having is in the draw odds. I have pulled the complete draw odds report and calculated the odds. My question for anyone willing to answer is this....for a particular hunt under 1st choice applicants for archery the draw odds are a certain percentage, then 2nd choice applicants a lower percentage and third choice applicant even lower, but if your app is assigned a position in the draw then your individual chance is solely based on where you are in line, correct? I am trying to make sure I understand this clearly as foremost I just want to hunt, but would much rather hunt the later archery hunt than the early archery hunt. Could anyone clarify this for me? If I stated my confusion clearly enough?

~Jason Peterson


"No man should go through life without once experiencing healthy, even bored solitude in the wilderness, finding himself depending solely on himself and thereby learning his true and hidden strength."~Jack Kerouac

 

[nm_alazan]

BB,

You are correct about when your application comes up in the queue. The only odd that you can calculate that makes any sense is the first choice drawn divided by first choice applicants.

For second and third choice, there is not enough info to calculate odds because you don't know how many second and third choice applicants were drawn by their higher choice (nor which hunt they applied for), thus skewing the data severely.

Good luck and welcome to NM!

 

[BaldBeaver]

Thank you, that's what I figured. I appreciate your quick response.

~Jason Peterson


"No man should go through life without once experiencing healthy, even bored solitude in the wilderness, finding himself depending solely on himself and thereby learning his true and hidden strength."~Jack Kerouac

 

[1FastGambler]

I look at it a little differently.

It sounds like you do understand how the draw works, you're one up on most residents.

If you're good with Excel you can download the draw results and reformat it however you see fit and input formulas to calculate the odds.

While the 1st choice is by far the most important, 2nd choice does play a significant role in some hunts, and even 3rd choice does have an effect on the odds on many hunts.

The odds for any good hunt suck. The really good hunts suck worse.

You're talking elk and archery in your post and you're now a resident, so you're first decision should be to choose between either having a really good chance of drawing a tag in a decent unit OR waiting years and years to draw one of the coveted tags.

Personally I want to hunt one of the best units every year, but sadly that just isn't going to happen unless I fork over the cash to buy landowner authorizations.

Oh yea... Welcome to New Mexico!

 

[TRC]

I look at it a little differently too. I add all the resident applicants for all choices of the unit I'm looking at and then divide by the amount of tags they drew for residents. I do this because people draw their 3rd choice over someone who put it as their 1st choice. The total number of resident applicants all play a factor in the odds. In the end, the percent draw odds are all very close if you use any of the above ways mentioned. Like they said good units are tough and great units are near impossible. Put your dream hunt first, good hunt second and a hunt you think you could draw last. The only thing that truly matters is when your application is drawn. PRAY IT IS EARLY!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Apply to multiple states improve your odds of hunting too!

TRC