Wyoming Bighorn Stats - 2007

HornedToad

HornedToad

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Wyoming has posted its Preference Point Totals going into the 2007 draw for Moose, Sheep, Antelope, Deer and Elk.

The information for Sheep appears, at first glance, to be surprising. The number of Sportspersons (NR) with PP going into the 2007 draw is 10,248, only 508 fewer than the 10,756 going into the 2006 draw. What happened to the big drop-off in applicants expected with the increase by WY in the price of a Sheep PP to $100? And how is this consistent with the fact that only 5,517 NR applicants participated in the 2006 Sheep draw (including 3,461 who applied for PP only), implying that at least 5,239 of the PP holders going into the 2006 draw chose not to apply?

The answer lies in the fact that WY does not remove a Sportsperson from its roster of PP holders until that person misses TWO consecutive draws. This means that a person who chose not to apply in 2006 would not be removed from the PP roster until also failing to apply in 2007. As a result, the significant drop in PP holders resulting from the increased $100 PP fee, expected to exceed 5,000, will not be seen until information is released for the PP totals going into the 2008 draw.

Of special interest is that the number of MAX PP holders (w/ 12 PP) going into the 2007 draw now stands at 139. It will take another 4 years to burn through this number, assuming that MAX point applicants continue to apply only to the top units, thus limiting their annual take of the available NR permits to about 60% of the total (34 of 57 permits in 2006).
 
I've been waiting for it to come out too but as you said, the real story will be told next year.

"Whatever you are, be a good one."
- Abraham Lincoln
 
What's really surprising is that there were quite a few applicants in the Max and the next two highest pools that did not pay for a point. Better for me but hard to understand.
 
Yeh I found that a little confusing too.

That many points and didn't pay for the point if not drawn?

Maybe they thought they where a lock in a certain unit and then didn't get drawn???

I'm still in a wonder about no tag in 22 with these points!!!
I guess 'Elmer Fudd' put the voodoo hex on me so he can draw that tag!! haha

Robb
 
If you apply for a sheep permit, you gain a point when unsuccessful. The $100 is automatically deducted from your refund. You do not have the option of not gaining points.
 
HT good info as always, I am waiting to see 2007 results, I plan to hang in there. I think it will take 3 or 4 years to see the true effect. Several guys I know plan to get a point every other year, I suspect in a few years they will see that this is pointless. I suspect that at least 50% off apps will drop out by 2009, somewhat evenly distributed over all #'s of points.

I have a guy I know start this year 2006, no clue, he does not apply anywhere else for sheep, I told him he has no chance (he is 40 now) and he says you have to start somewhere. I asked why he did not apply to CO, $4 cost vs. $100 and better odds and points start helping right away! What a waste.
 
I see 137 of the 139 were in just three units and points only. It could take many years for the points only individuals to cycle through. Lots of guys can come up with the 100 bucks. Two thousand is another story. Yet I don't think many in the top two or three pools will give up at this stage (due to the $100 application cost). Maybe some because they have lost the desire or are getting to old, etc.

I'm one point out and am willing to hunt one of the other units. I think I better get back in shape.
 
I compared the 2006 numbers to the 2007 numbers and I think you can come up with a good assumption of how many people stayed in the draw by looking at the years between when the $7 fee only was initiated. As was stated the other years are all up in the air as you have to miss 2 consecutive years to be eliminated.

For example:
Going into the 2006 draw:
1,258 Nonresidents with 6 points
226 Nonresidents with 7 points

Going into the 2007 draw:
816 Nonresidents with 7 points
216 Nonresidents with 8 points

If we assume 100% of those with 7 points in 2006 stayed in and 0% of those with 6 points drew a tag, then 816 / 1,258 = 65% stayed in the draw. If you went to the extreme and said that 0% of nonresidents with 7 points in 2006 stayed in the draw, your calculations would be: (816 - 226) / 1,258 = 47%.

The retention rate should be between 47% and 65% and most likely closer to 60% for those that started when it was cheap, $7 for a point!

I thought it would be lower than that for $100 per point and not much chance to draw in the near future. With that much retention, the chance to draw with low points is not helped much by the change in fee.

For moose, I calculated for the same point totals for non-residents and the retention rate would be between 60 - 71%!

Hope this helps and if you think I made an error, let me know.

Nino
 
Nino,

That is an interesting analysis. And a 65% estimated retention rate for those having 7 PP going into the 2006 draw is probably about right.

If you consider that 5,517 NR applicants participated in the 2006 draw out of 10,756 NR with PP's going into the draw, that implies an overall retention rate of 51%. But since there were almost certainly some new participants among the 5,517 NR in the 2006 draw, the actual retention of those having PP going into the draw was probably less than 50%.

Of course, some of those who chose not to apply in 2006 may re-enter the draw in 2007, without losing their PP's, since they would not have missed two consecutive draw seasons. But my guess is that most of those who chose to withdraw from the process in 2006 will not return.

As you point out, if the attrition rate (the opposite of the retention rate) is only 35% to 50%, it means that far too few applicants have chosen to withdraw from the process than would be necessary to give those with fewer than 7 PP's much hope of being drawn within a realistic "hunting lifespan". I expect, however, that the attrition rate should increase in the next several years as the reality of the situation begins to sink in.

HornedToad
 
I guessed half would drop and still think this, I think a lot will do every other year for a whole and still more hold on for while and eventually drop out.

I have 7 points, started when points went to $7, that was the year I finished college, man I wish I got done 1 year sooner (should have had a few less beers).

Curious, how long do you guys think it will take before I hit max pnts? Again I have 7 going into 2007. My prediction, based on info here is 15 years, there will be a lot of guys in there with me but at least I am then getting a crack at the 75% of tags going to max pnt holders and the 25% for random draw. Right now I am 35 so I can easily go 25 more years if needed.

Do you think in 15 years I will be in at least some max pnt pools in WY sheep?

Also what really scares me is I suspect WY will cut NR tags in half sometime, that will really hurt.

Thanks

DonV

PS this is always one of my favorite threads not only because I enjoy the math, along with the eliment of unpredictableness thrown in and because I REALLY want to hunt sheep.
 
DonV,
It looks like you have about a thousand people ahead of your points, which means if everyone stays in, 15 years may be optimistic. But undoubtedly $100 per year is going to get old for many of them. I drew a tag in 2004 and got a nice bighorn. The next year I was contacted by a guy who drew his second Wyoming Bighorn, in seven years, out of the 25% pool.
Even though the odds are very low..1% or so, I would recommend that, if you are not doing it already, put in every year, instead of just buying points. Somebody has to draw and I believe persistance pays off in the long run. Most guys can't justify coming up with the tag price every year, but if you are in it for the long haul, it's worth it. I now have a little stash that is banked every year for that reason.
It sounds like you want a sheep bad. Are you putting in other states as well?
Good Luck
 
DonV,

I don't know how I lucked out but I am in the 8 point pool. Some how I got in before they went to $7 point only. Keep in mind that about 45 people or 75% of the tag holders each year come out of the top point pools. Then the random draw, 15 tags or 25 % are drawn. As the top pools draw down the random tags are going to be eaten up by the low point holders (because there are more of them). So it will probably take at least 15 years to get to the 7 point pool. Right now I am expecting to draw a tag in 21-23 years. Pretty sad to think it will cost $2,000 for points plus $2,000 for a tag and then if it is a wilderness hunt another $5-7 K.
 
One other thing to keep in mind....if you are in the 7 through 9 points group, the only areas that offer tags in the random draw are 1,2,3,4,&5. I can't understand why anyone with lower than the top 2 point tiers apply in the other areas. Best of luck to everyone in the 2007 draw!
 
I have stressed out when sending my Sheep application in for Wy the last couple of years. I am worried that I might make a mistake and it will be invalid therefore I do not receive a point and drop farther down the list.

I called Wy Game and Fish today. Because of the new policy of non-residents applying for points only in July-Sept we now have an insurance policy. If for example I make a mistake on my application that cannot be corrected prior to the deadline (this year around Feb 28th) date. My application will be voided, I will not be considered for the draw and not receive a preference point. I CAN NOW APPLY FOR A PREFERENCE POINT DURING THE PREFERENCE POINT APPLICATION PERIOD IN JULY.

Good advice if you want to draw a sheep tag: Apply early and do not make mistakes on the application. If you do make a mistake you now have a back up plan to still get the point. Who knows how long they will continue to do this but at least for 2007 we can rest a little easier when we let envelope drop into the mailbox.
 
Coz, pretty sad indeed. I have 7 points. In 20 years. It will realistically cost 8-10k for a tag and bonus point will be at least 300 dollars. Guide 10-20k. Twenty years is a long time. Can some one tell me what it cost for a non res sheep tag and guided hunt 20 years ago? We know how much points have gone up in just one year.
 
From the book "A Reference Manual For Hunting North American Sheep", by Lance Stapleton: resident; $50, non-resident; $405. He mentions that the non-resident fees will dramtically increase in 1992. In 1991 there were 1875 non-res. applicants for 89 tags (4.7% draw), residents had 4177 applicants for 267 tags. The 1991 harvest was 211 sheep.

Duncan Gilchrist's book "Quest For Giant Bighorns" lists the non-resident fees as $1,000 for the permit with a application fee of $5. He also states there was no preference point system in place (a point was given to the unsuccessful applicants in 1994). I should mention that there was no notification in the 1995 Non-resident WY G&F applications about a preference point system. This was passed by the Wyo legisalture prior to the then resident application deadline in May.

As for a guide, I would say a hunt in 1991 was probably in the $3,500 range. Currently the better guides get between $6,500 and $8,500 for their hunts.

Hope this info helps. To put these costs into perspective, look at the Alberta bighorn hunts. Go to Cabelas Outdoor Adventures and check their bighorn hunts. One outfitter charges $30,000 and is booked until 2009. The other outfitter is charging $32,000 for his 2008 hunts. As long as there is such a high demand for Rocky's, the prices are only going to continue to rapidly escalate. Best of luck to all in the 2007 draws.
 
Thanks for the info dwalton, so realistically IF you do draw a tag in 20 years you are going to be into it 30-40k. 8-12k? for a tag, 15-20k? for a guide, at least 5k? for points. And no hunt for sure. It's sad that it is turning into a rich mans sport. I put in for sheep hunts in 5 states. No chance in a gand slam, but sure would like one tag in my life.
 
Maybe I overlooked something in the 2007 NR permit application booklet from Wyo F & G, but there appears to be no application for sheep/moose pref. points ONLY. I guess they are going to have another mailing for the summer application period.? Correct me if I'm wrong...which is highly likely.
 
I think I read somewhere that it is available on their website. I do not think the submission period is until July though.
 
Man, you got that one thing peg'd, "Submission Period"
This is hard on a man, financially, psychologicaly, and
physically. If you could draw, it'd be hard on you in all
three catagories, but in a real goooood kinda way. I plan to
keep on plugging away. Good luck to everyone. Hope you have
the best of luck.
Larry
 
Plan on spending more for Wyoming licenses in 2008 as there's a proposal to increase the costs of licenses by 20%. Sheep tags will be $2,250.
 
Cozmo8 good idea, make that great idea! Backup plan, screw up app get point later, I will remember that!

I do apply for sheep in CO, MT, AZ and utah - and have a trip booked for 2011 in AK for dalls (I got his last opening that year - he is good!).

I guessed that I would be in the max pnt pool in 15 years (with my 7 points now) assuming that half the guys dropp out, then took out the guys who will draw tags (based on how many tags are issued each year) I also figured 3% drop out each year (based on horned toads info) - I think this will increase since many guys are older and in 10 years they might give up - so I think 3% per year is reasonable. Based on all that I figure I will be in the top point pool in 15 years, along with everyone else - but at least at that point I am competing for all the tags. I will go unguided, and I will hunt at least 3 weeks. The only monkery wrench is if NR tags are cut dramatically.

I tell my wife every year, when I draw a sheep tag I am hunting the entire season, and I will come off that mountain with a ram or die up there cluthing my rifle in one hand and my tag in the other. She is starting to get mad because she realizes I am serious.

Odd because, being from Ohio and just recently starting to travel, I have no even seen a sheep yet. But I have dreamed about them since I starting hunting and read articles about trips to the high country. Awesome.

Why the heck are NR tags skyrocketing? Can anyone honestly say it is not nailing the NR? Seems like they got us by the short curlies and figure what the heck.
 
Also what year was the first year you could get a point - and how many NR apps were there that year? This would give a very good idea how many guys drop out long term, and that number will increase as guys get older and give up, or pass away (morbid to think that I need to count on guys getting old and passing on in hopes of getting a tag one day)!
 
DonV,

Don't expect Wyoming to cut the NR quota. They have always given 25% of the sheep tags to the NR's. It would not be good for their revenue if they took away $2K licenses and replaced them with $150 ones.

Also, I was mistaken in my info about the preference points. They were first given to unsuccessful applicants in the 2005 draw (still no mention of the points system in the 1995 NR application booklet). I don't think you can reliably calculate an attrition rate because the point system is always being updated and changed. First it was 100% of the licenses to the max point holders. Then, we got the 75/25 split. The $7 point only fee was created after 6 years. Finally, we had the 1,500% increase in the point fee, bumping it up to $100. To say that the current point system will still be in play in 5, let alone 15 years is unrealistic.
 
Here is a summary of MAX PP holders (NR) going into the WY Sheep draw for each year since inception of PP in 1995:

1995 1,421
1996 1,086
1997 848
1998 741
1999 632
2000 537
2001 455
2002 397
2003 330
2004 282
2005 236
2006 191
2007 139

As can been seen, the attrition rate was greater during the first several years of the PP draw, due in large part to the burden of having to "front" the substantial license fee in advance of the draw. Once the up-front fee was reduced to the $7 PP in 2000, the attrition rate began to slow down. Of course, there have been other factors impacting the willingness of NR applicants to remain in the PP pool.

Any estimate of the number of years required for the current MAX Point group to "zero-out" is clearly just that - an estimate - based on a number of assumptions. But the fact that the current MAX Point group is marching each year inexorably to a smaller number, is indisputable.
 
Thank you. Just to clarify, the attrition rate (NR) in 2006 appeared to increase, up to 52 (191-139) from numbers that had been in the mid-40's the previous three years. This is because 18 of the 191 MAX PP holders carried over from 2005 chose not to participate in the 2006 draw (of the 52 attrition, 34 drew permits in 2006).

These 18 non-participants are still carried in the "total" number of PP participants, because they have not yet missed two consecutive draw periods, but for now, having failed to advance, they have been bumped down to the "One-off MAX" group.

It will be interesting to see whether any more MAX PP holders will decide to abandon the WY Sheep draw in 2007. I would expect this number to be few, and to be based upon the "usual suspects", such as death, age, "killed another bighorn elsewhere", and so on, rather than a carry-over reaction to the $100 PP fee.
 
Unbelieveable that 18 max point holders did not apply!

"Whatever you are, be a good one."
- Abraham Lincoln
 
I may be wrong, but it could be that the 18 max PPs you are talking about are the 18 hunters who drew an area 5 tag this year, but returned their permits because of the fires that occurred in that area. Those hunters automatically get a permit for 2007, so it will be interesting to see how many area 5 permits beyond the 18 Wyoming will issue for area 5 this year?
I know that alot of those 18 are probably not NR, but maybe they threw them into the count by mistake? Anyway, it is interesting to try and figure out what's happening here.
Good posts guys! HT where did you get that info?
 
Horned Toad,

I did not think many people followed this as closely as me but it appears that you do. All of your numbers are the same as mine.

Here are some more numbers for everyone else:

This is the list of point holders by preference point category that did not apply or buy a point in 2006.

12 (max) 18 like HT stated
11 27
10 11
09 8
08 9
07 442

Now what is interesting is the point that HT brought up. The 18 people in the max pool (12) dropped down to the 11 point pool. So in reality there were actually 45 people in the 11 point pool who did not apply or buy points in 2006 . I hope this make sense but it is a little confusing.

Over the next couple of years this should really filter out and we should have a bettetr idea of what is going on. Right now I am surprised by the number of high point pool applicants dropping out. It is anywhere from 5-15%.
 
littlebighorn:

I simply have maintained a paper file of the WY G&F "Demand Index" reports that have been issued each year since 1995. I don't know of any location in which these older reports may be archived on the 'Net or elsewhere.

I am among the 295 NR holders with 11 PP going into the 2007 draw, one-off the MAX, which currently stands at 12 PP. I was going Stone's sheep hunting in 1995 (killed a 170 class ram with Dave Wiens), and could not afford the time or money for two sheep hunts in one year, and so did not apply in Wyoming that year. Then, when the draw results came out, I was surprised along with many others to learn that Wyoming had implemented a preference point system. It was that unannounced "surprise" that basically put Garth Carter and his "Huntin' Fool" newsletter in business, as many became sold on the value of having a paid agent monitoring changes each year to the various state's draw regulations. In 1995, the information available on the internet was much more limited than that available today, and there were no websites around like "Monster Muleys" to share information. The material now available from state wildlife agencies over the internet has greatly reduced the "value-added" from Carter's newsletter, but I still subscribe anyway, just to be sure that I don't miss something important. It's become a habit... I suppose.

Cozmo08 - good analysis. It will be interesting to see what the future holds.

Happy Hunting everyone.
 
Well, a better reason than why I am in the 11 point no man's land. My wife wrote some checks she forgot to log or tell me about one year, and the sheep check bounced! Oh well, what's an extra ten years anyway? Now if they would just get rid of the stupid guides required in the wilderness areas law..........
 
HornedToad,

I'm in the same boat as you. Went hunting B.C. mountain goats in 1995 (the only year I missed since 1993).

Here's a question for those of us with 11 points. Do you start looking at some of the lesser areas (smaller rams), or do you stay the course and wait the 4 years when we're the top of the heap in the best units (3,4,5)? Not sure what I'll do. Starting to seriously look at all the options (7, 10, 19). 6 and 9 aren't even on the radar as you'd be lucky to find a small legal ram in an entire season.
 
Good question. Once we are in the top of the heap, it may still take some years to draw. If you are unlucky, you may get last out. If you want to go unguided, there are only a few units to pick from due to the stupid guides in the wilderness law, and those may have longer waits. With the five year wait and points system, not much point for a middle aged guy to think about getting out quick to get in again. Looks like I will only get one sheep hunt out of WY before I am too old, but at least I can count on one. It probabally makes sense to get the unit I want, even if it takes another ten or more years.
 
dwalton/Elmer...

I have been applying to one of the secondary sheep units in WY for several years now. For a person in the "One-off MAX" group (11 PP) going into the 2007 draw, it may still take another eight to nine years to draw, with average luck.

I currently am in my mid-50's, and definitely not in the same climbing shape that I was in ten years and more ago. My thought is that I will have a better chance at a quality ram hunting in a secondary sheep unit at my current level of physical conditioning, than I would have by hunting in a premium unit ten years from now when I am in my mid-60's.

I know that there are some guys who have successfully taken sheep while in their 60's, not to mention 70's and even 80's. But I do feel that my own "biological clock" is ticking, and that I have only a few more years to safely chase rams in the high country.
 
I'm turning 41 in 2 weeks. Still on the fence on what to do. I know this will be my only Rocky sheep hunt, barring some extreme stoke of luck here in Nevada. Can't see forking over the money to hunt Canada, unless I'm in my mid-60's and need the Rocky to complete my slam. Best of luck to you HT...I hope you get a tag in '07.
 
A bird in the hand.....
I really did not look for this in the stats. How did the fee jumping to $100 affect the guys who were doing the $7 point? I was thinking that the $100 point would cause a lot more of the guys to jump in and try to draw before getting hit with that for too many years. Yes, a few would bail, but I was thinking odds of drawing would go down with the higher nonrefundable fee.
 
HornToad,
I am like you in that I am one point off top for a Utah desert tag. I went on a Caribou hunt the first year of the points system and thought at the time it wouldn't be that big of a deal. I wised up after that and I got a Wyoming Bighorn in 2004 out of the top points pool, but I did it with a guide.
I have to say that it was one of the easiest hunts physically, I have ever been on. (It was also the funnest!) The only phyiscal part came when I hiked up a ridge to shoot my ram. The rest of the climbing was done by our horses. That's not to say that every Wy. Bighorn hunt is like that, but mine was. I was 54 at the time and in reasonable shape, but my guide was more worried about my shooting ability than anything. I guess my point is the ability to climb may not be as critical as you might think. Good luck!
 
DW
I went with Fritz Meyer, Windriver Mountain Outfitters out of Dubois, Wy. He guides more sheep hunters in Wyoming than anyone. He has helped harvest over 300 Rams and I was pleased with the service I got on my hunt. At the time, 2004, he charged $4500 for a 10 day hunt, which was about $1500 cheaper than most. PM me if you want any more information.
If you are a member of Huntin Fool, the whole story was published there. Jan. or Feb. 2005 if I remember right.
 
>littlebighorn:
>
>I simply have maintained a paper
>file of the WY G&F
>"Demand Index" reports that have
>been issued each year since
>1995. I don't know of
>any location in which these
>older reports may be archived
>on the 'Net or elsewhere.
>
>
>I am among the 295 NR
>holders with 11 PP going
>into the 2007 draw, one-off
>the MAX, which currently stands
>at 12 PP. I was
>going Stone's sheep hunting in
>1995 (killed a 170 class
>ram with Dave Wiens), and
>could not afford the time
>or money for two sheep
>hunts in one year, and
>so did not apply in
>Wyoming that year. Then, when
>the draw results came out,
>I was surprised along with
>many others to learn that
>Wyoming had implemented a preference
>point system. It was that
>unannounced "surprise" that basically put
>Garth Carter and his "Huntin'
>Fool" newsletter in business, as
>many became sold on the
>value of having a paid
>agent monitoring changes each year
>to the various state's draw
>regulations. In 1995, the information
>available on the internet was
>much more limited than that
>available today, and there were
>no websites around like "Monster
>Muleys" to share information. The
>material now available from state
>wildlife agencies over the internet
>has greatly reduced the "value-added"
>from Carter's newsletter, but I
>still subscribe anyway, just to
>be sure that I don't
>miss something important. It's become
>a habit... I suppose.
>
>Cozmo08 - good analysis. It will
>be interesting to see what
>the future holds.
>
>Happy Hunting everyone.

Hey HornedToad,
I tried to PM you but in is inactive. I was wondering if I could get a copy of the Demand Index reports from 95-03 if I give you my fax number?

Thanks

"Whatever you are, be a good one."
- Abraham Lincoln
 
MNHunter -

I've "enabled" by inbox. Try to send me your fax number... or better yet, your email address. I don't have a fax machine, but I believe that I should be able to scan these reports and send them to you as files as an email attachment.

Good luck,

HornedToad
 

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