BuzzH, you are absolutely correct, simply going limited entry statewide will NOT automatically increase deer populations. On the other hand...........
Research on multiple species going back many years makes it crystal clear that one of the most important factors in building/maintaining a big game population is getting the breeding females pregnant during the first estrus cycle. Multiple research projects on several species, but not mule deer to my knowledge, have found that the females control both the timing and individual male they breed with. For the most part, females will not breed with young males, 1.5 to 2.5 years of age, during the first estrus cycle. Is this also true for Mule Deer? I believe it is.
Multiple research projects have also found that predation on fawns/calves that are born late, or born small, is much higher than on early birth large newborns. Other research projects have found that in some cases, late fawns/calves are not capable of being bred at 1.5 years of age.
So what does all of that mean? One of the key things we should be measuring is this: Do we have enough mature bucks, typically considered to be 4.5 years of age and older, to impregnate the vast majority of breeding does during the first estrus cycle? If not, given all of the other factors impacting mule deer, populations will decrease.
In my opinion, it takes a mature buck ratio/doe ratio somewhere around 15/100 to accomplish the job. It really does not matter how you get there: Limited entry, shorter seasons, less motorized access which increases escapement, total closures, etc.
The Colorado experience is illustrative of the problem. Colorado not only cut the number of buck tags by more than half in 1999, they also cut the number of days bucks were hunted. The result, between 1999 and 2006, the deer population increased from 475,000 to 610,000. Statewide buck ratio in either 2006 or 2007, can't remember which, was 39 bucks/100 does. How did Colorado react to this success story? Added tags, added seasons, added weapons, added unit wide landowner tags, and started to shoot the hell out of the upper end bucks across the state.
Then comes the terrible winter of 2007, large losses of deer in much of western colorado, and Colorado does cut tags. What don't they do? They don't eliminate the 4th season rut hunts, or cut back on the number of seasons, or cut back on landowner tags. The result, by 2012 counts, the deer population is lower than it was in 1999.
In Oregon, there is a long history of closing or reducing harvest, and seeing substantial increases in populations. Perhaps the most interesting I have found occurred in 1929 in the Murderers Creek unit. Due to low deer numbers, the Murderers Creek drainage was closed to all hunting. (there was no elk or antelope hunting in Oregon in 1929). Five years later, in 1934, the population had exploded, and they had to issue doe tags to get the population under control. There are multiple other examples of similar results, and I would guess the same thing is true in other states.
As far as I can find, Wyoming does not publish population estimates, buck/doe ratios or fawn/doe ratios anywhere on their website. If that is incorrect, I would appreciate someone providing a link.
My observation as a non-resident who has hunted Wyoming 4 of the last 6 years, and plan on hunting antelope this year and elk in 2013, is that extended seasons and staggered start dates for residents is a bigger problem than actual hunter numbers. No data to back that up, but that is my feeling. There is a fair amount of historical data that tends to show that reduced season length is more effective than LE in decreasing buck harvest, which is what you have to do if mature buck numbers are low. It has the added benefit of not reducing income to the Department.
I have put together some data sheets comparing the buck population for each mule deer unit in Oregon over time, both in real numbers and as a percentage of the Management objective over the past 10 years. If anyone would like to look at that data, shoot me a PM or email with your email address and I will be happy to send it to you, along with my comments.
This has been a great discussion, and it is obvious that many of you are greatly concerned about the future of mule deer and mule deer hunting in Wyoming. By the way, I am sitting on maximum points for deer, and don't have a clue where to use them. Any ideas would be appreciated.
Mike Morris
Scoutdog
503-317-7576
[email protected]