2016+ Tag Distribution

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ElmerFudd

Very Active Member
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2,423
I know I have asked before. Is the change to 50% of the nonresident cap in the first max points round in 2016 a for sure done deal or just likely to be implemented?

I'm sitting on max deer points and that change would make it more like a 50:50 shot that I will draw 13B before I get too old vs. very likely if I don't die or get debilitated prematurely. I'm debating my second choice this year if it is the last year to treat the top pool to the full nonresident cap.
 
short answer, it's on hold.

The new Governor put a moratorium on new rules and therefor the dept is unable to go forward with their Article One rulemaking process, unless they get a waiver, which they are seeking.
 
Thanks! Do you think we will know a draw cycle ahead if/when they decide to implement a draw change like this in the future? I know... It's all a guess but it there some timeframe ahead they need to change rules?
 
I wonder how many guys were shook out of the top pools 2015 with the threat??
I hate the doom and gloom BS! Sucks! But what can you do?
 
It was a done deal before the new Governor locked up the process. I would have burned my points if I still had them.
 
Maybe its time to put a bug in someones ear?
Almost burnt ours, but were going to hold out a little while longer. 10 Points now.
 
Think I'll stay the course and hope enough of the people with me coak first if they change :) Anyway... My odds will be as good as any nonresident's... No matter what.
 
I tried to burn my points. I guess a few people had the same Idea for the same hunt. With 12 points now I hope they put the change off.
 
One thing I haven't seen brought up on this proposed change. It will hurt less than max point resident odds. Nonresidents are sure to get the full cap in either pool due to numbers. So less than max point residents will be competing for 75% of the hunt quota, not 80% as now.
 
i don't see it that way. nonresidents are going to lose tags. tags that would have gone to nonresidents will now give residents a chance at taking them.
 
Dont forget before you croak, the best bucks in ariz. last year didnt come of the strip,and there is alot more that people dont show off or show picks.
 
>One thing I haven't seen brought
>up on this proposed change.
>It will hurt less than
>max point resident odds. Nonresidents
>are sure to get the
>full cap in either pool
>due to numbers. So less
>than max point residents will
>be competing for 75% of
>the hunt quota, not 80%
>as now.

This is incorrect as I understand it. The 50% of non res tags that used to go in the bonus draw of high demand hunts are now going to the general draw where anyone has a chance at them. They are not dedicating those tags (like they should) to non res.
 
Technically, they are not designating them. But realistically, nonresidents are going to get the full 5% allocated to the top pool and 5% of the bonus point round tags of all high demand hunts.
Max points tags will go from 10% of the total resident 10% nonresident to 15% resident 5% nonresident. Points required to draw as a resident may be lower. The second bonus round will be 75% of the total resident 5% nonresident.

When half the applications are nonresident and the cap is small, nonresidents are certain to draw the full quota in both pools.
 
Non res can only get UP TO 10% of the tags- They are not guaranteed ANY tags. Now with 50% max on the non res bonus draw tag allotment it means the remaining 50% of the tags are just random draw for res or non res in the General draw. There will surly be a lot more res in that pool. I can almost promise you that a good percentage of those tags that went to max point non res will go to res in the general draw.
 
There is no way on earth the NR will hit the 5% cap in the 1-2 Pass. Residents will gain an additional 5% from the Bonus Pass and some/all of the remaining 5% that will be moved to the 1-2 Pass. A big win for residents so NR have a slight chance at a tag or two in the random draw.
 
LAST EDITED ON May-07-15 AT 06:56AM (MST)[p]>I wonder how many guys were
>shook out of the top
>pools 2015 with the threat??
>
>I hate the doom and gloom
>BS! Sucks! But what can
>you do?

Shiploads were shaken out of the unit 9 pools, sprinting to unit 1. No question about that. Cost me my tag this year. If this gets postponed a year I'll be shifting units to try and burn mine in a lesser unit for my 2nd choice.

***********************************
Member RMEF, Pope & Young Club, NRA, UWC & DP Hate Club
 
>There is no way on earth
>the NR will hit the
>5% cap in the 1-2
>Pass. Residents will gain an
>additional 5% from the Bonus
>Pass and some/all of the
>remaining 5% that will be
>moved to the 1-2 Pass.
>A big win for residents
>so NR have a slight
>chance at a tag or
>two in the random draw.
>

Bingo
 
Ok. For the first max points pass.... If the 10% nonresident cap is filling now because of heavy weighting of nonresident applications, a 5% cap sure as hell will. Now if the next pass has a 5% nonresident cap... If you sort of assume points are close... If more than 6% of the applications are nonresident, the 5% should fill. The more nonresident past 6% you go... The more sure the nonresident cap will fill.
 
>Ok. For the first max points
>pass.... If the 10% nonresident
>cap is filling now because
>of heavy weighting of nonresident
>applications, a 5% cap sure
>as hell will. Now if
>the next pass has a
>5% nonresident cap... If you
>sort of assume points are
>close... If more than 6%
>of the applications are nonresident,
>the 5% should fill. The
>more nonresident past 6% you
>go... The more sure the
>nonresident cap will fill.

incorrect. The non res can get up to 10% of the tags- not guaranteed. Assuming non res get 5% of the tags in bonus draw the remaining 5% of the tags are not for non res they are just tags for anyone. The non res and res are in the same pool fighting for the same tags in the general draw. The difference is that the non res cannot surpass 10% of the tag total. Odds are very good that a lot if not most of those tags would go to residents if this system is imposed.
 
Nonresidents will get 10% of the high demand tags either way. The percentage of nonresidents applying for all high demand hunts is way above the nonresident cap either way. Years of the cap has given nonresidents more points on average on top of that. Pure statistics assures that.

Ok... Maybe not 10% of the total if you include all hunts. But for sure the cap will be filled on the higher demand ones....
 
>Nonresidents will get 10% of the
>high demand tags either way.
>The percentage of nonresidents applying
>for all high demand hunts
>is way above the nonresident
>cap either way. Years of
>the cap has given nonresidents
>more points on average on
>top of that. Pure statistics
>assures that.
>
>Ok... Maybe not 10% of the
>total if you include all
>hunts. But for sure the
>cap will be filled on
>the higher demand ones....

Sorry but you're wrong. The high demand hunts have MUCH more res than non res applying. When they draw the General pool draw (80% of the tags) the non res are vying for the same tags. The non res do not have any tags being dedicated to them. Lets use an example- Unit 9 elk. Lets say there are 50 tags available. 10 go to bonus and I'm sure that 2 or 3 (5%, which is 50% of the 10% cap, which is proposed for the bonus draw) will go non res because we have less opportunity for tags therefore we build more bonus points. There are now 40 tags for the general draw. There will 4-6 THOUSAND apps in that General pool- The vast majority of which will be residents. Yes, some non res will be drawn- even some with less than max points (which is good), but there will be residents getting tags that went to non res in the bonus round in the current system if they institute this new system. It's simple statistics. I would be all for the change if they just DEDICATE the 10% of the tags to the non res (golden goose). I like the idea of less than max point non res having a chance at premium tags- it will keep us applying.
 
What AZ should do is take a bunch of those NR tags and make them available in some sort of scam... lets call it an "Expo".

That way you guys will get your shot at them. LOL ;-)
 
No Bruin, you are wrong. They don't break down residents and nonresidents per hunt number in the odds on the website. But look at the deer species totals of points, nonresidents make up 13% of the total applications. Throw out the max points tags... Then you need 6% of the applicants to be nonresident. That is about the ratio in the one point pool (Maybe the hunter ed point only?) Many of those might not be applying and it is the largest pool, with over half the bonus point holders. Keep in mind, they would have 2 points with hunter education and loyalty, so most are not applying. The next pool up has almost 10% nonresidents. 7 points is where the nonresidents start with over half the applicants and the nonresidents make up over 90% of the top pool.

Nonresidents are certain to fill the first pass 5%.

But we are looking at 6% nonresident weighting to likely fill the 5:75 second pass. 10% nonresident weighting would make it almost certain. There is that!
 
The "up to 10%" is only written that way to cover the g&f's ass. You can thank USO for that. That means if only 6% of the applicants are NR, and there are a lot of residents that apply for that hunt, then only 6% are given to NR's for that hunt. They won't withhold the 4% extra NR tags as leftovers when there are residents that want the tags. 10% of the tags for each hunt are reserved for NR's. Almost all of those are given out in the bonus pass for each hunt right now.

And great job to the AZ G&F for trying to fix the bonus pass blunder that it has become! It was never intended to be a preference point system like it is now.
 
Why not DEDICATE the 10% to non res then? There will be many times that the non res will not fill out the 10% in high demand hunts. It's statistics, your use of the overall hunter pool doesn't really apply for the high demand hunt scenario. You would need to see who is applying for that hunt specifically to figure actual stats. I am in favor of splitting the non res bonus pool quota, I just think they should allocate that second 5% to a random NON RES draw.
 
LAST EDITED ON May-08-15 AT 08:50PM (MST)[p]

The new breakdown will be "up to 5%" in the Bonus Pass and "up to 5%" in the 1-2 Pass. I'm not positive on the possibility of carry over from the Bonus Pass down to the 1-2 Pass.

NR will continue to hit the cap in the Bonus Pass. They will not hit the cap in the 1-2 Pass because they are lumped in with the residents. The high point NR applicants in the 1-2 Pass will have a weighted advantage but so will the high point resident apps. Sheer numbers in the 1-2 Pass will make it virtually impossible for the NR to hit that 5% cap in the 1-2 Pass.

All this is moot unless the dept gets a waiver...

On a side note, 1 NR unit 1 early archery tag dropped to the 1-2 Pass as did 2, 3a tags.
 
>The "up to 10%" is only
>written that way to cover
>the g&f's ass. You can
>thank USO for that. That
>means if only 6% of
>the applicants are NR, and
>there are a lot of
>residents that apply for that
>hunt, then only 6% are
>given to NR's for that
>hunt. They won't withhold the
>4% extra NR tags as
>leftovers when there are residents
>that want the tags. 10%
>of the tags for each
>hunt are reserved for NR's.
>Almost all of those are
>given out in the bonus
>pass for each hunt right
>now.
>
>And great job to the AZ
>G&F for trying to fix
>the bonus pass blunder that
>it has become! It was
>never intended to be a
>preference point system like it
>is now.

10% of the tags are NOT reserved for non res! If you don't understand the system try reading about it before you make a statement. The proposed changes are not good for serious non res hunters. I agree with changing the % of tags allocated to non res in the bonus draw, but they should dedicate the remaining tags (up to the 10% cap) for non res in the general draw. This would give incentive for new non res hunters to start applying. I really don't have a dog in this fight anymore, I have hunted 13B and I'm going to hunt Unit 10 early elk this year. I've paid my dues as a non res believe me. It seems so simple but everyone wants to argue about it SMH.
 
I don't get the non set aside tags either. It's not like 10% is like that big of a bone, especially when considering the difference between 8% or 9% or whatever it might end up and 10%.

It seems like you can count on the years to draw your elk tag pretty close so long as not going for early rifle or muzzleloader now. Antelope and sheep are not going to change much as the top pools are heavily weighted resident and most of the 10% cap escapes the first round anyway. The only beef is deer where less than absolute max points nonresidents have no hope at a tag ever and maybe early rifle/muzzleloader elk. Is it worth messing with things again just for that? It will make archery and late bull elk a lot tougher to figure on the draw year and will extend the assured draw date.

I do think designated tags for nonresidents would be awesome either way. It would make figuring draw odds and guessing at the right units to apply for easier.
 
My preference would be a 15% cap, no more than 10% in the Bonus Round. That protects the current crop of high point guys and give up to 5% for the random, knowing that 5% will not likely be hit. The end result would be, what, maybe 12?
 
All this is making my head spin.
As a non-resident with 18 points for deer what do you think my chances are of drawing 13b ? rifle 1st choice, archery 2nd.
 
13b rifle 7.3%
13b archery 100%
13a rifle 90+%
13a archery 100%

These numbers should be real close. Dont knowbif you would consider using a guide, but if so I would recommend you contact Matt Schimberg with A3 trophy hunts and talk to him about the archery hunt and 13a rifle, because you have a great shot at that tag.
 
The draw odds are really worse that that for nonresidents. Here is the link. 13A rifle was 1021 last year and 13B rifle was 1022. The hunt numbers can change year by year.

http://azgfdportal.az.gov/PortalIma... Point Report - Bonus Pass by Hunt Number.pdf

Anyway It appears that 103 max point (17 points last year} applied for 13B as a first choice and 18 of them applied for 13A as a second. Note that 13A had no first choice max points applications, all 18 were second choice. The 20% max points made 12 tags in this round for 13A and 14 for 13B. Nonresident 10% cap was 6 tags for 13A and 7 for 13B. 6 max point holders drew 13B and 8 drew 13A. The 6 is 13A were probably nonresident as the next 6 were filled at 15, two points off max. At least one resident drew a max points 13B tag with 17 points, five with 16 points and the final first round tag went to a 15 point applicant.

Anyway, the point is that there are some residents who may take 13B max points tags, so those odds are worse. I don't know where the 100% on 13B comes from, it was mote like 33% last year. If applicants don't jump ship, that will make 50% close for 13B rifle this year. The monkey wrench? The draw change may shake out some of those nonresidents doing 13B or bust.... Like me....
 
For the most part I have applied 13b rifle and no 2nd choice.
Once I applied 13b archery as a 2nd choice, and a couple of times 13a rifle as 2nd.
I'm 52 and I'm ready to cash in. There are a lot of other hunts that I don't apply for in other states because the dates conflict with 13b. I'm tired of being disappointed.
 
LAST EDITED ON May-10-15 AT 01:07PM (MST)[p]>My preference would be a 15%
>cap, no more than 10%
>in the Bonus Round. That
>protects the current crop of
>high point guys and give
>up to 5% for the
>random, knowing that 5% will
>not likely be hit. The
>end result would be, what,
>maybe 12?

This would be great. Gives the non res a chance without a bunch of points in all units but the residents will probably still draw the tags.
 
>All this is making my head
>spin.
>As a non-resident with 18 points
>for deer what do you
>think my chances are of
>drawing 13b ? rifle 1st
>choice, archery 2nd.

glass-eye
It appears you will be in the draw with about 90 N.R. apps for 13b rifle for 7 tags.My math isn't great but I think that's around 7% chance.
If you are a serious archery hunter that may be a good second choice.
I have your phone number and have some info. that I think may help in your decision.
P.M. me if you want to chat.
 
Elmer do you happen to know what the Hunt number for 12AW Late was last year/on your link ?
Thanks
 
I Had been a Res for 34 years . Been gone for 4 . moving back within 1-2 years. Can't wait .Az really screws non res. I finally drew unit 10 early bull also with 20 points. Deer and lope I have 8 and 11 respectfully. Not even trying to draw anything with that untill I get back. 23 Sheep also. I got suckered into the pointv game in Wyo. too but at least you can draw a tag without max. I'm 2 behind there.......BULL!.
 
>Elmer do you happen to know
>what the Hunt number for
>12AW Late was last year/on
>your link ?
>Thanks


1016
 
I wonder how they will handle rounding with the proposal to cap the first round at 5%? Say for 13B with 70 tags, 5%=3.5 tags. That would have to be 3 as 4 would exceed 5%? Would the extra half tag go to the 80% second round making 4 tags? Or something else?
 
So just to be clear in that chart there's no way to tell for sure if it's non-res or residents drawing the tag ?
 
I was told by the stats. experts at the Kingman office that there are 21 residents with 18 deer points. Can anyone verify that? Thanks.
 
Anyway... At 7 tags per year, 148 is a 21 year stack of applicants. At 3 tags per year, it is a 50 year stack. True, dropout rates will be higher and it looks like 50ish are doing points only. But you can see why life expectancy is a big factor!
 
How can you tell people are only applying for points? Am I not seeing that on the draw report?
 
You can add up all the first choice applications at max points for every hunt in a species, subtract the number drawing tags and compare that to the number of applicants coming out of the draw with one more point. The difference is those applying points only.
 
Interesting discussion, all. Regardless of 10% or 5%, those of us who dream of hunting the Strip once will keep applying. My application is already in for 13B and 13A and I've got A3 all lined up for when I draw. They were good to me with elk scouting last year and I took one of their guides turkey hunting last month here in CA, so there's no doubt who I'll be hunting with when I get my "successful" notice in late July! :)
 

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