This post isn't to rub salt into some of your wounds that didn't get a charge on the card. The anticipation is killing me! I found out that I have been charged the 587.50 (Something like that)on my card. I am pretty excited about it....I can't even breathe hardly. Unit 10 archery was my first choice, Unit 8 archery elk was my second choice, unit 9 archery elk was my 3rd, 27 archery fourth, and 7w as a fifth choice. Which unit did I draw???????? What are the chances of drawing your second choice versus your first choice? Breathe...Breathe......
Some AZ advice?
- Thread starter BBB
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It's either your first or second choice, unit 10 archery or unit 8 archery. None of the bull tags make it to third choice, and I believe the majority of cow tags won't either. Don't worry about 3-5 choices unless it's an easy cow unit or limited opportunity which you don't have. Good Luck on your hunt!
The chances of drawing your first vs. second choice depend on whether your first choice was full when your number was pulled. If it was then you drew your second choice. Your first two units went in order with draw odds with 10 around 5-7% and 8 around 8-10%, so it could be either unit.
Lets say unit 10 does have 5% draw odds and unit 8 has 8%. Your chances of drawing unit 10 are 5% and the chances of drawing your 2nd choice is 3%. Overall your odds of drawing a tag are 8%. That is why it makes zero sense to but a 2nd choice with worse odds of drawing than the first choice. ALWAYS put the hardest to draw unit first.
I agree with everyone else. When applying for bull tags 3rd, 4th, and 5th choices are totally a waste of time applying for because all of those tags are gone in the first two rounds.
I still get a kick when I hear someone say I put in for archery bull hunts my 1st and 2nd choice and rifle bull hunts there after. I used to try and explain how the draw works but I don't anymore. I just smile and say good luck.
I wonder how how many years it has been since a bull tag was issued in the 3rd, 4th, or 5th choices? I would guess at least 15-18 years. Maybe more? I am not talking about LE hunts but the standard bull hunts, archery, muzzy, or rifle.
In 1993 I drew a 5th choice archery cow hunt and in 2002 I drew a 4th choice archery cow hunt. Both of these were in traditional units on traditional hunts. Not November either.
By the way, your odds can change dramtatically depending on how many bonus points you have and if you are in the 20% pool.
) Good Luck
I agree with everyone else. When applying for bull tags 3rd, 4th, and 5th choices are totally a waste of time applying for because all of those tags are gone in the first two rounds.
I still get a kick when I hear someone say I put in for archery bull hunts my 1st and 2nd choice and rifle bull hunts there after. I used to try and explain how the draw works but I don't anymore. I just smile and say good luck.
I wonder how how many years it has been since a bull tag was issued in the 3rd, 4th, or 5th choices? I would guess at least 15-18 years. Maybe more? I am not talking about LE hunts but the standard bull hunts, archery, muzzy, or rifle.
In 1993 I drew a 5th choice archery cow hunt and in 2002 I drew a 4th choice archery cow hunt. Both of these were in traditional units on traditional hunts. Not November either.
By the way, your odds can change dramtatically depending on how many bonus points you have and if you are in the 20% pool.
) Good Luck
A
azmuleys
Guest
I finally drew a tag also, Unit 9 early rifle was my first and archery 10 my second. I totally agree with you that you will never draw a third choice, but I put Unit 8 archery as a third choice just for giggles this year and now I'm really hoping what you said stands true. I'm sure hoping I got that 9 tag, but I guess I won't complain if I got a 10 archery tag. It's crazy, it takes so long to draw now, I feel like I've won the lottery!
I am aware that third, fourth, and fifth choice hunts are really only good for possible undersubscribed antlerless hunts, etc.. but I've always entered good hunts in there just in case some year for some outrageous reason a good tag goes unnoticed....I think more than anything I am still trying to cope with reality that I drew a good tag! My mind has been "unsuccessful" too many times, so this success isn't quite registering yet. I hope I got unit 10!! Thanks for your replies.
Michael Burrell
Michael Burrell
AZtrophyhunter
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Unit 10 would be sweet, probably the better of the two. Congrats!
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Hunterdan
Guest
Unit 10 or unit 8, they are both very good hunts. Congrats.
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huntin100
Guest
Thanks for the info on elk draws. Just wondering if you locals would have an idea on antelope. My 13 yr old boy or myself drew either unit 7 1st choice, unit 8 muzzle 2nd choice, or 13A 3rd choice. Would it most likly be unit 7 or 8 then? Thanks for the info. Greg
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huntin100
Guest
Thanks, I was getting mixed up with Nevada where all choices are taked into consideration, befor the next application is drawn. Five choices are realistic.
AZtrophyhunter
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Most likely it's your first choice. I've personally never heard of anybody getting drawn for lopes on a second choice. I suppose it happens every blue moon, but I've never heard of it. I've been applying for these critters for 13yrs, never been drawn. Make the most of it!
aztrophyhunter, I hope you are correct about antelope and it is always first choice hunts that are drawn. My sister drew an antelope tag and her 2nd choice dates would conflict with a archery elk hunt that one of my kids or I drew. I guess if you have to have a problem this is a good one to have?
Did not even notice the dates were different than the other hunts until she called up and said she had a hit for $77.50.
By the way her charges were from the 15th and ours were from the 14th. I have not heard of anyone being charged since the 18th. I'm guessing everything is completed and they are just double and triple checking for accuracy. If there is something wrong with this draw I'm sure the vendor out of Tennessee will be KO'd. Especially after all the assurances they gave the public and dept due to last years debacle.
Did not even notice the dates were different than the other hunts until she called up and said she had a hit for $77.50.
By the way her charges were from the 15th and ours were from the 14th. I have not heard of anyone being charged since the 18th. I'm guessing everything is completed and they are just double and triple checking for accuracy. If there is something wrong with this draw I'm sure the vendor out of Tennessee will be KO'd. Especially after all the assurances they gave the public and dept due to last years debacle.
AZStickman
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Huntazido posted
"Both of these were in traditional units on traditional hunts"
I've been here 16 years and this is the first time I've heard the phrases traditional Units and traditional hunts used. What are they?...... Terry
"Both of these were in traditional units on traditional hunts"
I've been here 16 years and this is the first time I've heard the phrases traditional Units and traditional hunts used. What are they?...... Terry
What I was referring to were standard hunts in standard hunt units. I drew hunts with a 4th and 5th choice that were not units like 21, 19A, 28, or even 17, 18, and 20A. The units I drew were unit 27 cow and 6aW cow. I know there are a handful of people who draw archery cow tags with their 3rd, 4th, or 5th choices each year but those people are less and less each year. So.... for the normal hunt units during Sept. I would say there will be zero tags issued after G&F looks at the first 2 choices of each hunter. This year especially since G&F robbed the archers of cow tags this year.
Sorry for the confusion and I hope I explained it more clearly. I was just trying to cut off the guy who would say "But I drew a unit 28 cow hunt with my fifth choice". Traditional hunts and traditional units would be units like 1,4,5,6,7,27 during Sept hunts.
Sorry for the confusion and I hope I explained it more clearly. I was just trying to cut off the guy who would say "But I drew a unit 28 cow hunt with my fifth choice". Traditional hunts and traditional units would be units like 1,4,5,6,7,27 during Sept hunts.
AZStickman
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Gotcha.... Thanks..... Terry
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averagejoehunter
Guest
aztrophy,
i am proof that you can draw your second choice on antelope. i did it last year with 11 bps.i also drew a unit 9 archery bull permit with only 3 bps.i truly love this banter we all subject ourselves to this time of year!!i know 2 other hunters who did the same on speedgoats last year.then again my hunting partner had to wait 20 long years for his first az speedgoat tag.the bottom line is if you put a higher draw odd hunt as your second choice and you get bumped out of your first choice with room on your second you will get it...of course it takes a lot of luck too!!but one of my favorite sayings goes "id rather be lucky than good!"
good luck to everyone who drew in our great state!!!
averagejoe
i am proof that you can draw your second choice on antelope. i did it last year with 11 bps.i also drew a unit 9 archery bull permit with only 3 bps.i truly love this banter we all subject ourselves to this time of year!!i know 2 other hunters who did the same on speedgoats last year.then again my hunting partner had to wait 20 long years for his first az speedgoat tag.the bottom line is if you put a higher draw odd hunt as your second choice and you get bumped out of your first choice with room on your second you will get it...of course it takes a lot of luck too!!but one of my favorite sayings goes "id rather be lucky than good!"
good luck to everyone who drew in our great state!!!
averagejoe
