NR point question

S

saddlesorerider

Active Member
Messages
140
Under the new rules, if a hunt has 35 tags how many can go to NR's. 3 or 4?
And if it's 3, is there 2 tags in the 20% pass and 1 in the random draw or the other way around?
 
I called and talked to the gal at AZGFD this past week about this very subject. There can be up to 3 NR tags drawn. Of those possible 3 tags, 1 tag can be drawn in the bonus pass and 2 tags will go to the random draw. In hunts where there is only 1 NR tag possible, that tag CAN be drawn in the bonus pass round.
 
LAST EDITED ON Jan-16-16 AT 03:17PM (MST)[p]The new rule is worded such that a hunt with a single nr tag, that tag can not be drawn in the Bonus Pass. Written specifically to prevent a recurrence of the past, where all applicants in the 1-2 Pass were statistically excluded from drawing that hunt.

"...In addition, the rule is amended to establish the Department shall not issue more than 50% of the hunt permit-tags available to nonresidents through the initial bonus point pass of the computer draw to increase opportunity nonresidents with less than maximum or lower bonus points."
 
LAST EDITED ON Jan-16-16 AT 04:04PM (MST)[p]I was just repeating what I was told by AZGFD. I specifically asked about hunts with 1 tag available to NRs and was told it could be drawn in the bonus pass. After reading the new rule, it appears you are correct WapitiBob!

It sure would be nice to receive the CORRECT information from the department.
 
The nr stuff is new so it takes time to get it passed around. I also sent an email in case I have missed something.
 
First off, thanks for the info.
My children and I have just enough points to pull middle class hunts in the 20% pass under the old system but now that's all changed. Will people now put in for 9,10,1 or early rifle on one of their first two choices instead of two middle tier hunts,6,7,8 and thus make it easier to draw those hunts? Or do our odds go down because these tags will go to people with less points than we have.
It's going to be an interesting year.
 
A, I hope so

B, Because AZ is a bonus Point state, you have a weighted dis advantage/no change in the 1-2 pass depending on your points. With fewer NR tags going in the Bonus Pass, those nr 5% applicants will now drop to the 1-2 pass and will have an advantage over most of us. On hunts where up to 5% or less were drawn by NR in the Bonus Pass, you won't see any difference.
Early rifle has so few nr tags it's not going to make much difference. Early archery, for most hunts, will have more tags in the 1-2 pass and more top point guys.

Throwing a monkey wrench in all of it, is just how many will do as you thought and burn their 1st choice on a top end hunt.
 
If I were a NR that would be my strategy due to the rule change. First choice would be primo or dream unit and 2nd would be a hunt that had a reasonable chance at drawing.

It will be interesting to see the stats after this years draw.

Good luck to all those hunters that apply and get drawn.
 
+1 This is probably the reason AZ G&F changed the rule. Under the old system, if I understand correctly, all NR tags could go in the Bonus Pass, which basically kept people with low points locked out of the primo hunts forever.

I've spoke to a couple of people at G&F and they really emphasize that I now have a chance at a primo tag. Drumming up business I guess. And yes, I did buy a Powerball ticket!

>If I were a NR that
>would be my strategy due
>to the rule change.
>First choice would be primo
>or dream unit and 2nd
>would be a hunt that
>had a reasonable chance at
>drawing.
>
>It will be interesting to see
>the stats after this years
>draw.
>
>Good luck to all those hunters
>that apply and get drawn.
>
 
So how does Arizona work with first and second choices. I Have 7 points, if I put in for a premium tag as the first choice and don't draw and have a lesser tag as second choice and draw that one, do I lose my points? I have never put in for more than one unit. For example, in Oregon if you draw your second choice you keep your preference points for the next year.
 
Here is an example for the guys applying for Strip tags this year, assuming there are still gonna be 70 tags issued.

Under the 20% pass rule, there will be 14 tags issued. Under the "old" rule, NR's with MAX points COULD get up to 7 tags.

This year, with the "New" 5%-5% rule in place,NR's with MAX points will get up to 3 tags (yes, they round down). That means that Arizona residents with max points will get 11 of those first 14 tags in the 20% bonus point pass draw!

But that also means that there are still ostensibly 4 tags still available to NR's, which is true, but consider that they will be put in the general draw with ALL the Arizona residents too.

Remember, there are no "NR set aside" tags, so no guarantee if there will be 1 to 4 NR tags issued in the second draw.

That means the odds to draw are probably very, very slim, but you have a chance!

No computer modeling was done to see how this will work.

Will NR's get 1-4 tags on the Strip under the new 5%-5% rule??? No one knows for sure at this point. Gonna be an interesting draw year for sure..

Don Martin
 
I hate to say it but I think it is time to begin the conversation of guaranteed % of tags go to NR's. I am a resident of AZ but I can see that NR's are rarely going to get 10% of tags due to the new rule change. Once the remaining NR tags are put in the general application draw cycle they will be greatly outnumbered by AZ residents. AZ residents are most likely to draw many of those permits.

Don't get me wrong, I support G&F's new rule because the way it was going new NR hunters just getting in the application game had zero chance of ever drawing a premium hunt. At least now, they will have a chance. Unfortunately, it is a very small chance and that is why I think it is time to begin the discussion to a have a guaranteed % set aside for NR's. Maybe not even 10% but 8% instead? I don't know the answer but this should be the next step taken.

We residents & AZ G&F need to be more fair to NR's who dish out a ton of money to apply in AZ.


Good luck to ALL those that apply
 
LAST EDITED ON Jan-23-16 AT 11:21AM (MST)[p]

Data for Early Archery 2015

1-2 Pass draw
Hunt number; available - issued

1; 0-0
3a; 0-0
3b; 6-6
4a; 10-10
4b; 1-1
5a; 0-0
5bn; 10-10
5bs; 0-0
6a; 39-39
6b; 7-7
7e; 0-0
7w; 0-0
8; 0-0
9; 0-0
10; 0-0
11m; 4-3
11m; 7-7
16a; 1-1
19a; 0-0
21; 0-0
22; 0-0
23n; 0-0
23s; 0-0
27; 0-0

The number of hunts with a leading zero was the impetus for the change.
 
NRs have every incentive to put a primo unit on the first choice of their application from now on. They actually have a chance now. Every year. But overall, they as a category will pay a price for it as the 5% random is not guaranteed and many times they will not draw all of them.
 
>Just curious how you got that
>info? Is there more draw
>info available to the public
>other than the bonus point
>information?


You can get that report from game and fish.
 
>Just curious how you got that
>info? Is there more draw
>info available to the public
>other than the bonus point
>information?


U can request it from game and fish
 
I think its highly unlikey non residents wont get 10% of the tags. Yes, it will be a random draw, but on average the NR's as going to have more points, and statistically a better percentage chance to draw than residents. Nobody knows for sure, and it will certainly vary a little from year to year.... but statistically speaking, NR's are very likely to get the 5% in the random draw.
 
The new bonus point system will be bad for Non res IMO.
Nos res will now not likely get 10% of the permits, Period.
when Non res now compete with residents for the other 5% of permits.

I think ALL states should set aside 10% of permits for non res. NOT up to 10%.

My boy that has 7 elk points now has a far less than 1% chance at an early rifle elk hunt, but his chances at a decent archery hunt that took 8-9 points will likely now take 14-16 points. How is this better?
 
>>Just curious how you got that
>>info? Is there more draw
>>info available to the public
>>other than the bonus point
>>information?
>
>
>U can request it from game
>and fish

Public info request and some $$
 
NR haven't been getting the full 10% before this new rule change except for the most sought after hunts but a lot of the lesser hunts, late hunts for example we don't get the full 10 percent due to lower applicants And higher resident applicants
 
The department says that there must be a minimum of 20 tags available for elk, antelope, deer, turkey, and bear in order for there to be a tag available in the bonus point pass draw.

And like others have said, tag numbers for the bonus point pass draw round DOWN not up!

And I'll go out on a limb and say that NR's WON'T get 10% of the tags when its all said and done...

There was no computer modeling done by the department before they implemented this, so guess no one really knows?

Don Martin
 
Honestly if you are hoping your kid gets an early rifle tag with 7 points you are in a dream world anyway. I agree, as a resident, I believe non-residents should get at least 10% of the tags, not up to 10% OF THE TAGS, UNLESS THEY ARE FROM NEW MEXICO, then give them up to 5% of the tags and 4% to outfitters and 1% to general new Mexicans. That would be fair. At least Arizona is consistent and I bet the final results will be close to 10%.
 
LAST EDITED ON Jan-25-16 AT 05:50PM (MST)[p]I think in the higher demand hunts, the NR's will still pull their 10% of the tag quota. Based on the information in this chart and if my math is correct, there are 211,310 resident applicants and 33,283 NR applicants. The number of NR applicants is 13.6%.
There are a total of 445,353 resident bonus points and 141,298 NR bonus points. NR's represent 24.1% of the bonus points.
Therefore statistically, the NR's should max out at their 10%.
Keep in mind that over time this percentage for NR's will continue to climb as more residents with max points will draw out each year (15% instead of only 10%) while fewer NR's will draw out in the max point pool (down to 5% instead of 10%) this will continue to increase the number of NR's with lots of points and keep the number of Residents with high points lower - the point disparity at the upper level will really start to grow over the next few years.

2485capture.jpg
 
I'm sitting on double digit deer, elk and antelope points. Once I draw, I'm out of the AZ system forever. After 14 years, I'm over it.
 
SD Bugler,
Thanks for the bonus point table. That is exactly my point.

Prior to the change you had NO chance as a Non Res for some top hunts. NOW you have less than 1% chance of drawing a top hunt if you are below max points, and less of a chance if you do have max points.

Random tags are now grouped with residents up to the 5% remaining permits.
Competing for that 5% of permits.
Residents with 6 elk points 4,500
NON RES with 6 elk points 1,674

Res with 5 elk points 7,393
NON RES with 5 elk points 2,172.

The figures show that because of this recent change, NON RES will not get near the 10% of permits in the vast majority of hunts.
When NON RES need to buy $160 dollar license and are going to get fewer permits some will figure it out and quit and give up.
 
Current data, shown for the early archery hunts above, shows we will hit the cap. If I get time I'll look at late rifle.
 
Lets assume there 100 tags for a given hunt. 20 get taken in the first pass.

There are 80 tags left in the random draw. NR only need to get 5 of those tags to hit the 10% cap.

That's 6% of the allotted tags.

Using your scenarios below...

With 6 points.... Residents with 4500 and NR with 1674. NR's have 27% of the points within that point group, yet only need 6% of the tags.

That's of course only within that point group... so its a small sample size... but the theory holds true in general.

NR's have on average more bonus points and have a higher % of hunters than the remaining % of tags left in the NR draw for a particular hunt (in the above scenario its 6%).

I get the frustration, but I still don't see it as an issue. NR's almost are guaranteed 10% of tags in almost every hunt, statistically speaking.


>SD Bugler,
>Thanks for the bonus point table.
> That is exactly my
>point.
>
>Prior to the change you had
>NO chance as a Non
>Res for some top hunts.
> NOW you have less
>than 1% chance of drawing
>a top hunt if you
>are below max points, and
>less of a chance if
>you do have max points.
>
>
>Random tags are now grouped with
>residents up to the 5%
>remaining permits.
>Competing for that 5% of permits.
>
>Residents with 6 elk points 4,500
>
>NON RES with 6 elk points
> 1,674
>
>Res with 5 elk points 7,393
>
>NON RES with 5 elk points
>2,172.
>
>The figures show that because of
>this recent change, NON RES
>will not get near the
>10% of permits in the
>vast majority of hunts.
>When NON RES need to buy
>$160 dollar license and are
>going to get fewer permits
>some will figure it out
>and quit and give up.
>
 
LAST EDITED ON Jan-27-16 AT 04:59PM (MST)[p]I went ahead and ran more numbers based all hunters that apply in AZ.

When we are thinking about the random draw, NR's are going for 6% of the tags to get to the 10% cap. (5/80) Assuming that 5% of the tags will be allocated in the first pass.

There are 33,283 NR to 211,310 Residents.

So, NR's make up 13.6% of the application pool. Remember, NR's are only trying to get 6% of the tags in the random draw.

On average, NR's have 4.25 Bonus Points.
On average, Residents have 2.11 Bonus Points.

So, NR's are twice as likely (on average) to draw a tag in the random draw than a resident.

Given that NR's can really only get 6% of the tags, make up 13% of the application pool, and are twice as likely to draw based on bonus points.... I have a hard time believing NR's wont hit the 10% cap.

You can add in other assumptions like...

How many NR's are applying for cow tags vs. Residents. Im assuming very few NR hunters apply for cow tags, and I know many resident hunters that do. So, when we are talking about bull hunts, it will skew the #'s more in favor (with regards to hitting the 10% cap) of the NR hunter.
 
CMBull and I are in the same line of thinking.

If the number of Res and NR applicants are equally spread among all of the possible hunts, and all of the bonus points are added into the pool, then 24 out of every 100 possible chances to be drawn are for a NR (24% chance). Yet only 6% of the remaining tags can go to a NR.

The actual odds are probably even higher for bull tags when you consider that the majority of NR's with any amount of points are applying for higher demand hunts (bull tags) while residents may be more willing to apply for a antlerless tag.

I don't see that there will any significant change in the 10% going to NR's. Exceptions may occur in units with VERY few tags.

I guess we will have to wait and see the true results in a few months
 
The reality is that none of us really know how it's going to work out yet. What I do know is that I've been buying a license and points for 10 years and knew how much longer I had to wait to get the elk tag I wanted. Now I know that I will NEVER be guaranteed that tag because the rules were changed in the middle of the game and point creep is gonna go nuts. I've decided to burn my points this year and give up on Arizona going forward. It appears that as a Non-Resident they want my money but really don't want to give me a decent opportunity to draw a tag. I was willing to pay $160 plus bonus points for everything each year because I knew that eventually I would draw a premium tag. Now there are no assurances of anything other than another couple hundred heading out of my bank account for absolutely nothing.

Burning my points in AZ and going hunting. Then I'll save some money and stick to other states that actually want me to come hunting there.

Turns out in AZ, patience isn't a virtue.....patience is for suckers.
 
I agree with you RdRdrFan, and if I was a Non-Resident I would draw soon and get out. I think a fair deal would of been one tag left for the random draw, but splitting it at 50% is really going to delay the process of drawing a great tag..
 
>I agree with you RdRdrFan, and
>if I was a Non-Resident
>I would draw soon and
>get out. I think a
>fair deal would of been
>one tag left for the
>random draw, but splitting it
>at 50% is really going
>to delay the process of
>drawing a great tag..

This in a nutshell, was my recommendation to G&F during their comment period.

I think the 50/50 split is a slap in the face of those who have been paying their way and putting in our dues.
1 guaranteed tag in the random seemed legit. This is coming from someone who is back to 2 points for elk.
 
I didn't think 1 tag was worth the license cost. I preferred to leave the "up to 10% bonus" and add an "up to 5%" in the 1-2 with an "up to 15% max" cap. However, changing the full cap may still require the Legislature.
 
Sucks for you guys that have been putting in for a while. BUT I'm sure AZGFD is more than happy to have taken your $160 for the last 10 years to give you one deer tag. And the amount of new people that are gonna start putting in now will be way more than the guys giving up on AZ. I don't agree with what they did to you guys but I can see why they did it.
 
Non residents get the shaft again. At least its not as bad as NM. We got a little lube with our shaft.
There will be a huge influx of non resident applications. Most of the random tags will be picked up by residents because there are 10x more resident applications.
This is a lot like when Utah let Non residents put in for every species. This took really bad odds & made them much worse.
 
LAST EDITED ON Jan-31-16 AT 08:29PM (MST)[p]I frequent 5 forums and have yet to see one person say they're going to start applying because of the change.

Nothing but the usual 30 something starting up with points across multiple states so he can draw a Sheep tag in 10 years.
 
I'm guessing what will happen is we will see an increase of Non-Res applications this year. This is because a few will jump in knowing they have a very slim chance to draw a
great tag and high point holders aren't going out until they at least draw something. After this years draw a decrease in Non-Res apps, mainly because the Higher point holders will start applying for average units, drawing and getting out for good. Then as the years go by the ones that are deciding to jump in right NOW will realize they only have a .000001% better chance at drawing that dream tag and will realize they're going to need max points again in order to draw that tag. So basically all the Non-Res that jump in now will be donating their $160 license and $13 bonus point to Arizona and will need Max pts in 20+ years in order to draw a great tag anyway...
 
rdrtrfan..... +100

I'm in the same boat. Been buying a AZ license and points for 12 years, went to AZ and did the non res hunter ed. and now they dump all over us. Think I will lower my standards draw out with a lot lesser unit than I was hoping for.....cut my ties with AZG&F then AZ can kiss my #&@ !! I'm done with them after getting screwed like we got.
 
>LAST EDITED ON Jan-31-16
>AT 08:29?PM (MST)
>
>I frequent 5 forums and have
>yet to see one person
>say they're going to start
>applying because of the change.
>
>
>Nothing but the usual 30 something
>starting up with points across
>multiple states so he can
>draw a Sheep tag in
>10 years.

I agree. I don't see a lot of new NR applying due to the app fee of $160 every yr. I feel it takes a fairly serious elk hunter to pay that every yr. so I don't a bunch of NR just throwing their names in the hat due to the slight chance of drawing. To be honest, the only NR that probably are aware of this change and actually understand it are your current applicants already applying. I'm sure new ppl will apply but I don't see it bringing in percentage wise anymore. Yea I wish they woulda added the "up to 15%" total as well! That would be great!
 
My hunting partner and I are starting to build points this year, but it isn't because of the new rules. We are just figuring out that we need to be building points in other states. We also don't necessarily want to draw one of the high demand hunts. We are hoping to pick up some tags for lesser hunts in the 1-2 pass. $160 bucks plus point cost for elk and deer isn't too bad, but it is quite a bit higher than the $80 i spend for elk and antelope in WY.
 
>My hunting partner and I are
>starting to build points this
>year, but it isn't because
>of the new rules. We
>are just figuring out that
>we need to be building
>points in other states. We
>also don't necessarily want to
>draw one of the high
>demand hunts. We are hoping
>to pick up some tags
>for lesser hunts in the
>1-2 pass. $160 bucks plus
>point cost for elk and
>deer isn't too bad, but
>it is quite a bit
>higher than the $80 i
>spend for elk and antelope
>in WY.

Not a bad plan if you just want to go hunt. But if you want to hunt some of the monsters tha AZ is known for and you are Non-Resident, you are wasting money by building points. You'll never get there and you have much better odds at drawing a quality sheep tag in many/most states than you will have of drawing a top tier tag in AZ.

My only caveat to that is AZFG is obviously bipolar enough that they could change the rules again in a few years and if they do......the folks who have continued to build points could be in a very good position. Then again, they could just screw you over worse. After all, you are a Non-Resident hunter and by definition (to them) all you are is a chunk of human flesh that is attached to a wallet they would like to drain.
 
^^^^^

I disagree with the above post. There are plenty of good bulls in the lesser units that you could draw every 4-6 years.
 
>^^^^^
>
>I disagree with the above post.
>There are plenty of good
>bulls in the lesser units
>that you could draw every
>4-6 years.


There's no elk in the mid tier units! Only in units 9 and 1! That's where everyone should apply!
 
LAST EDITED ON Feb-04-16 AT 06:07AM (MST)[p]>^^^^^
>
>I disagree with the above post.
>There are plenty of good
>bulls in the lesser units
>that you could draw every
>4-6 years.


Emphasis on the word "could".

If you want to count on a mid tier unit that once took a holding average of 4-8 points, you probably will now get to double that wait.

I disagree that guaranteeing 1 tag (at least) to the 1-2 pass would 'not be worth it' (because of the license cost) on the basis that UT and NV applicants vie for this kind of allotment all the time. Hunters all over the country apply out west in units that give out single digit NR tags. AZ simply made the carrot bigger to the new applicants while potentially doubling the wait for those who have put in their time and were planning to draw based on a more gradual point creep curve (for those mid tier units).

IMO, all AZ needed to do was guarantee a chance in the 1-2 pass so that the system could be still considered a bonus point system instead of the defacto preference point version it was becoming (in a growing number of hunt codes).
 
>If you want to count on
>a mid tier unit that
>once took a holding average
>of 4-8 points, you probably
>will now get to double
>that wait.

I dont think thats true. NR are still likely to be getting 10% of the tags... see some of the math above in this post... so all the units arent magically going to double in time length. There might be "normal" point creep, but not due to the law change.
 
Wow.I sure started an interesting thread and in reality no one will be sure until the draw info comes out next year.
What I have seen on this and other sites that I visit is that people are dropping down to lesser units to cash in their points this season. It used to be that you could pull an archery tag in the mid tier units like 4, 5A,5BS, 5BN, 6 A,7,8
with 5-6 points. Last year it took 8 for 5A, 9 for 5BS,7 for 6A-B and even more in 7 and 8. Now I see people posting that they are going to put in with 10 points or more for these units. So NR's like me who thought they might have a chance to pull an archery tag with 6-9 points will just have to wait for a couple more years.
Utah gives 1/2 the NR tags out in the random draw and NV squares points but there is no guarantee on drawing. In both states you could pull with zero points.
 
LAST EDITED ON Feb-04-16 AT 01:34PM (MST)[p]>I dont think thats true. NR
>are still likely to be
>getting 10% of the tags...
>see some of the math
>above in this post... so
>all the units arent magically
>going to double in time
>length. There might be "normal"
>point creep, but not due
>to the law change.

I disagree. 10% will likely/mostly max out still- this is not the issue.

What WILL be different is half the tags (potentially) will be given out to people with a an average of far less points than what it took to draw in the bonus round.

Look at UT as an example. Just because someone has max (even near) points does not equate to them drawing a tag in the random part of the draw. In fact, it is statistically more probable that a low-point holder will draw that tag since the aggregate 'group', having let's say 0-3 points, are much more heavily represented. This far outweighs the statistical reality of someone with max points. This eventuality will lead to more people having more points, competing for the same mid-tier units- walla! point creep.

What has happened in the last 4-7 years (2015 excluded) is that there were a huge group of hunters regularly cashing in their 5-8 points on 'reachable' units. Assuming this mindset holds, then those 5-8 point pools will not clear out as fast which makes point creep happen.

It's not debatable IMO. The simple unknown is how close to "double the points" it takes to draw those same units in the next 5 years.
 
Point creep has been happening in AZ for NR's for the past 15+ years and would have continued even without this change in the draw process.
I doubt that many guys with 10+ points are going to apply for units that previously took 0 - 5 points. And guys with 20+ points aren't going to drop down to units that were previously taking only 5 - 10 points. Point creep will jump up a few years but it wont double.
 
LAST EDITED ON Feb-04-16 AT 02:15PM (MST)[p]Actually, you're wrong based on the last 5 year draw stats for many "mid tier" early archery units. You can sign up for hunters trailhead to see for yourself or analyze the dept odds yourself.

Besides that, your logic doesn't hold- with the 50% cap on bonus round allocation, what do you think happens to those people that would have drawn under the 'old' system?

Study UT elk unit draw odds where there are enough tags to drop down into the random round and see who draws them...
 
Bill - See Bob's post up above (14). A lot of the mid tier type units already had tags dropping down to the "random draw". If we both agree that NR's are likely to still get 10% of the tags, what is the difference? There were already tags being drawn by NR's with minimal bonus points and some of the units have stayed relatively "flat" from a point creep perspective for a few years now.

Could there be some, absolutely. I just dont think its doubling. I could be wrong though, as I havent studied all the "mid-tier" units in depth, just the ones I typically apply for :)
 
LAST EDITED ON Feb-04-16 AT 02:28PM (MST)[p]The difference is this: all the guys that wanted some of those hunts "knew" that it took 8 points (as an ex) to draw. They applied and won the tag with an almost certainty. Some of these units have had this same point count for 5 years.

Now, half the guys that have the same 8 points won't draw this year (see my post about random draw probability). Now these people have 9 points. Many of these guys will understand that their 9 points doesn't really give them better odds in a higher demand unit, so they apply for the same unit again. Now the average points to draw in the bonus round of the draw goes up by one, etc etc.
 
"Study UT elk unit draw odds where there are enough tags to drop down into the random round and see who draws them..."

Not sure I understand what you mean. In UT there are tags in the random draw "before" there are ever any tags in the bonus point drawing? There needs to be enough tags (at least 2) to "bump a tag up" into the bonus draw.


My point is that you wont see people with lots of points applying for units that previously only took a few points to draw. "In my opinion" you wont see a guy with 20 points drop down to a unit that only took 8 - 10 points last year.
 
LAST EDITED ON Feb-04-16 AT 02:49PM (MST)[p]Correct- if there are 2 tags allotted, then there will be a tag given in the 1st/bonus round.

My point in referencing UT, is to show what the likelihood of a high point holder drawing the random tag. Since there are many more people included in the 'pot' for the random, those high point holders simply accrue a point and compete next year, causing point creep.
 
Maybe this will make more sense:

In a lot of units, there has been a consistent range of points required to draw, ie minimal point creep. Take 6A early archery as an example. for 5 years those with 7-11 points could count on drawing a permit. This was not an increasing demand, there simply have been point holders within that range for 5 years that put in and draw, every year (with only a couple of exceptions where it took 8 points). Now, if those same point holders apply again in 2016, only half of those 7-11pt guys will draw in the bonus round. They will be kicked into the 1-2 pass with the approximately 4500 other people. A few of them will draw in this pass, but probably not most of them. Because of the sheer number of low point holders, many of this group will win the tags. Next year the same group of guys come back 1 point richer and you have point creep. Again, there has NOT been point creep in 5 years in 6a early archery. It WILL happen now...
 
>Maybe this will make more sense:
>
>
>In a lot of units, there
>has been a consistent range
>of points required to draw,
>ie minimal point creep.
>Take 6A early archery as
>an example. for 5
>years those with 7-11 points
>could count on drawing a
>permit. This was not
>an increasing demand, there simply
>have been point holders within
>that range for 5 years
>that put in and draw,
>every year (with only a
>couple of exceptions where it
>took 8 points). Now,
>if those same point holders
>apply again in 2016, only
>half of those 7-11pt guys
>will draw in the bonus
>round. They will be
>kicked into the 1-2 pass
>with the approximately 4500 other
>people. A few of
>them will draw in this
>pass, but probably not most
>of them. Because of the
>sheer number of low point
>holders, many of this group
>will win the tags. Next
>year the same group of
>guys come back 1 point
>richer and you have point
>creep. Again, there has
>NOT been point creep in
>5 years in 6a early
>archery. It WILL happen
>now...

Yep

For instance, I've got 9 points and will regain my loyalty point next year (don't ask) which would put me at 11. If i wanted to draw Unit 8 then in the past I could count on drawing next year in the max point. Guaranteed. Now, not all of the folks in the current max point pool with 11 points will draw. So next year the max point pool creeps to 12. Two years later it will hit 13 and the next year 14. Point creep will most definitely go out of control if people keep putting in the same units. Add on top of that.....if the same folks put in that did last year (no more, no less) then my odds of drawing in the bonus pass with 9 points are.......

0.149%

That's not 15%. That is 0.149%.

It's a shell game and contrary to the myth put out there by many, this doesn't just screw the max point holders. It really screws ALL non-residents.
 
>My hunting partner and I are
>starting to build points this
>year...

I'm in the same group as OKBOW87. I just gave my first $175 to AZG&F. I decided a couple months ago - prior to the regulations change - to start applying and accumulating points. Based on various conversations, and studying the Bonus Pass and 1/2 Pass reports, I knew I would never draw a primo/near max BP tag, and would be happy with a tag I could likely draw in 5 years.

Within this post, there have been references to primo hunts, and mid-tier hunts. For those that have hunted AZ:

1) What class of bull would be expected from a primo hunt?
2) What about a mid-tier hunt?
3) What about a low-tier hunt?

BTW, my first choice is still a primo!
 
This rule change is a tough one. I feel for the NR guys with max or just less than max points as they will have a much longer wait in the 20% pool.
The guys in the NR reg pool now will have a one in a thousand chance at a tag.

I was in no mans land with 14 NR Elk points. I was never going to catch up to draw an early rifle tag in my preferred units. I don't even have enough points for a upper mid tier early rifle tag.

Now I have such a small chance at these tags in the reg draw. I went from no chance to a snowball chance in hell.

I'm $2400.00 into this tag and may never draw a tag I want.

Once I do draw I'll be out of this game.
 
I always wonder why us NR hunters don't fight Az for guaranteed % of all tags like they do/did in NM. NR get 6% guaranteed, well go ahead and say 16% even know 10% go to outfitters/ pretty much all nonresidents! They should make it 5% go to NR with most points other 5% random guaranteed to go to NR!!!!
 
"In a lot of units, there has been a consistent range of points required to draw, ie minimal point creep. Take 6A early archery as an example. for 5 years those with 7-11 points could count on drawing a permit. This was not an increasing demand, there simply have been point holders within that range for 5 years that put in and draw, every year (with only a couple of exceptions where it took 8 points). Now, if those same point holders apply again in 2016, only half of those 7-11pt guys will draw in the bonus round. They will be kicked into the 1-2 pass with the approximately 4500 other people. A few of them will draw in this pass, but probably not most of them. Because of the sheer number of low point holders, many of this group will win the tags. Next year the same group of guys come back 1 point richer and you have point creep. Again, there has NOT been point creep in 5 years in 6a early archery. It WILL happen now... "

Bill
I would consider 6A to be a "low tier" unit. The reason I consider it a "low tier" unit is because it can be drawn in the random draw (not enough demand from high point holders to draw the 10% in the max point drawing). There are several units at this level. Or what I consider "entry level" for bonus points. These units typical sit around 6 - 8 points to draw and stay at that level. I consider the mid tier units to be in the 10 - 15 point range and have had point creep of approx 2 points every 3 years. the upper tier units are the 17+ and typically go up about 1 point per year.

Lets look at 6A, since that is the unit you referenced:
2011 - 31 drew in the max point draw with 7 points and 28 drew in the random draw.
2012 - 62 drew in the max point draw with 7 points and 3 drew in the random draw.
2013 - 46 drew in the max point draw with 6 points and 31 drew in the random draw.
2014 - 36 drew in the max point draw with 6 points and 41 drew in the random draw.
2015 - 38 drew in the max point draw with 7 points and 39 drew in the random.

So when looking at the last 5 years it has taken 6 - 7 points to draw in the max point drawing. With the exception of 2012, approximately half of the 10% allocation for NR's was even drawn in the max point draw (5%). Therefore, the current changes shouldn't really affect this unit since only 5% of the NR allocation are currently being drawn in the max point drawing anyway.

In my opinion, the reason for this is twofold. #1 - some guys are only wanting to draw the mid tier or upper tier units. And #2 - when guys reach 10 - 12 points, they don't want to "waste" them on a unit that could be drawn with only 6 - 7 points. Similarily, when a guy reaches 17 points he wont want to "waste" them on a unit that could be drawn with 10 or 11 points.

So, in the new system some guys with 6 - 7 points may apply for a mid or upper tier unit as their first choice, but if they still put 6A as their second choice, then they will draw the 6A tag anyway before even going into random draw.

Yes I agree that some of the mid and upper tier tags will go to applicants with few points but those guys are so far behind that they will never catch up with the guys with more points. I think likewise, a person with 20 points might put in for a unit that takes 20+ points to draw as a first choice and maybe a unit that takes 17 points to draw as a second choice. he will then draw the 17 point unit and drop out of the upper point pool. He wont apply for the unit that only takes 6 - 7 points or even a mid tier unit though. I think some of this was happening already though.

So yes point creep will "continue" in the mid and upper tier units, but I don't think it will impact the lower tier units all that much.
 
>Maybe this will make more sense:
>
>
>In a lot of units, there
>has been a consistent range
>of points required to draw,
>ie minimal point creep.
>Take 6A early archery as
>an example. for 5
>years those with 7-11 points
>could count on drawing a
>permit. This was not
>an increasing demand, there simply
>have been point holders within
>that range for 5 years
>that put in and draw,
>every year (with only a
>couple of exceptions where it
>took 8 points). Now,
>if those same point holders
>apply again in 2016, only
>half of those 7-11pt guys
>will draw in the bonus
>round. They will be
>kicked into the 1-2 pass
>with the approximately 4500 other
>people. A few of
>them will draw in this
>pass, but probably not most
>of them. Because of the
>sheer number of low point
>holders, many of this group
>will win the tags. Next
>year the same group of
>guys come back 1 point
>richer and you have point
>creep. Again, there has
>NOT been point creep in
>5 years in 6a early
>archery. It WILL happen
>now...

Since you used 6a as an example.... Last year, half the NR's that drew tags in 6a drew in the random draw. Same will happen this year. The only thing that will affect 6a this year is if more people put in for that hunt or lowering of tags (which did happen).
 
LAST EDITED ON Feb-05-16 AT 00:47AM (MST)[p]NR's will never be satisfied here. You piss and moan cuz you can't draw without max points. You piss and moan cuz now the upper point people are "screwed." Cuz AZGF is out to get you. It really wasn't all that long ago that the 20% pass did not exist. When they started it the NR's pissed and moaned because if you didn't have x number of points you wouldn't draw. Now you act like you are owed something from G&F because you "played the game."
 
LAST EDITED ON Feb-05-16 AT 05:04AM (MST)[p]>LAST EDITED ON Feb-05-16
>AT 00:47?AM (MST)
>
>NR's will never be satisfied here.
>You piss and moan cuz
>you can't draw without max
>points. You piss and moan
>cuz now the upper point
>people are "screwed." Cuz AZGF
>is out to get you.
>It really wasn't all that
>long ago that the 20%
>pass did not exist. When
>they started it the NR's
>pissed and moaned because if
>you didn't have x number
>of points you wouldn't draw.
>Now you act like you
>are owed something from G&F
>because you "played the game."
>

Easy to throw rocks from the cheap seats isn't it?

Tell me how you would feel if you had a couple of thousand dollars and a decade of time spent all so you could have one specific hunt only to have the organization that has been taking your money all that time change the rules and make it statistically impossible for you to ever draw that tag. You might also check the attitude towards NR's and realize how much money they pour into AZFG and your local economies on an annual basis. NR's aren't the bad guys. But if AZFG treats me like nothing more than the obstacle between them and my wallet then they will go the way of Oregon and won't see my tag money again.
 
LAST EDITED ON Feb-05-16 AT 06:36AM (MST)[p]SDBugler-

For clarification, I'm only looking at archery hunts.

There are bow hunts that can be drawn regularly with 1-4 points.

There are hunts that also be had for the last 5 years with 16-17 points.

My example of 6a shows hunters that had 7-11 points mostly took those bonus tags, hence "mid tier" relating to point standing.

The premium early bow tags have shown an almost linear point creep (1 point more than the previous year)- like 1, 3A, 9.
Why is this- because the guys are vested in winning what they perceive as the best. The point creep happens because there are not enough permits allotted to clear out this group of guys.

Hunts like 27, 10, 8, have taken comparably the same number of points to draw 5 years ago as they did in 2015. The same pattern holds true for what I call mid tier units (like 5a, 5bn, 6a, etc.

I actually think point holder dispersal will be a bigger problem in the future (raising the avg number of points to take a bonus tag) because of dissatisfaction with the new system. More people will realize, as you said, that they will never catch up for one of the higher 'tier' units. This will dump more high point holders into other hunt codes.

The same thing happened in WY with moose. Once the reality of the game there became more common knowledge, a lot of those higher point holders redistributed to lower tier hunts.

The simple aspect of this is that by not giving out as many permits to the highest point holders and now half in the 1-2 pass (See post 14 on how many did not make it to the 1-2 pass before), there is no other eventuality than point creep in my mind.

With all that said, thx for the debate and your points. Time will tell, that's for sure...besides more change lol
 
I caught something on the Jay Scott podcast that was interesting, and it wasn't something I had thought about. It won't apply to me for a while, but something those of you guys with mid tier points need to pay attention to.

Say a guy has 8 points. He decides that he is going to put in for unit 10 early archery for his first choice, knowing he doesn't have the points but hoping to pick in up in the 1-2 pass. He then puts in unit 6a early archery for his second choice that only took 7 points to draw 100% last year. Because they do the bonus pass first, that guy will draw a 6a archery tag in the bonus pass and never had a chance to draw the unit 10 archery in the 1-2 pass.

So guys with a fairly significant amount of points need to be cautious of what they put for their second choice. If you want a chance at drawing that first hunt in the 1-2 pass, your second choice needs to be something you can only draw in the 1-2 pass as well. For guys like me just starting with points, we can pretty much put any bull hunt as a second choice because it will still be drawing from the 1-2.
 
I agree with Oxbow that this is what would have happened last year but this year it can be totally different.
Lets take 5BS archery as an example because of easy round numbers.
200 tags, 40 tags in the bonus pass, and only up to 20 could be NR.
Last year it took 9 points and all NR, 9, were drawn in this pass.
This year only up to 5%, 10 NR could be drawn in the first pass.
Putting in with 9 points for say 9 archery first and 5BS second
doesn't mean you are guaranteed to pull 5BS.This year you could pull
either one in the 1-2 pass. To make choosing more difficult I see
people with higher points 10-13 putting in for this and other middle
units. As Oxbow said, put in for only the hunts you will be happy
with and good luck to all.
 
TTT - I will let WapitiBob post the breakdown of this since he did the research... but suffice to say NR's basically got their 10% of tags.
 
LAST EDITED ON Apr-20-16 AT 10:51AM (MST)[p]Bulldog
Yup! Just as you and I and a few others were trying to explain would happen.
Although my sons and I weren't part of the lucky 10% again this year. I would sure like to get the chance to hunt AZ sometime before I'm too old!!!

Come on New Mexico - show us some love!!!!
 
LAST EDITED ON Apr-20-16 AT 11:12AM (MST)[p]2016 Early Archery

UNIT; BONUS PASS AVAIL/DRAWN; 1-2 PASS; AVAIL/DRAWN

1; 15/15; 15/15

3A; 6/6; 6/6

3B; 3/2; 5/5

4A; 8/8; 8/8

4B; 6/6; 6/6

5A; 9/9; 10/10

5BN; 7/7; 7/7

5BS; 10/10; 10/10

6A; 35/34; 36/36

6B; 7/7; 8/8

7E; 7/7; 8/8

7W; 8/8; 9/9

8; 8/8; 9/9

9; 5/5; 5/5

10; 6/6; 6/6

11M; 4/3; 5/5

11M; 4/4; 4/4

16A; 0/0; 1/1

19A; 0/0; 1/0

21; 0/0; 1/0

22; 1/1; 1/0

23N; 0/0; 1/1

23S; 0/0; 1/1

27; 11/11; 11/11
 
Thanks Bob. So to recap... NR's lost 3 early archery tags to residents.

1 tag in 19A
1 tag in 21
1 tag in 22

So, in essence, no premium tags.
 
LAST EDITED ON Apr-20-16 AT 11:26AM (MST)[p]Looking at early archery, we essentially drew our 10% under the old system (post 14) and drew it again under the new system. Irrespective of the points required to draw and high point guys, I would say the new breakdown did exactly what it was supposed to do.

Early and late rifle at first glance appear to be about 50% of our full quota.
 
>I'm sitting on double digit deer,
>elk and antelope points. Once
>I draw, I'm out of
>the AZ system forever. After
>14 years, I'm over it.
>

Funny, I'm an AZ resident and I feel the same way about CO, UT, NV, and NM

I know, I know, NM doesn't have a BP system but I've been applying for a Gila Bull tag for 17 years and I'm no closer to drawing today than I was 17 years ago.

This is western hunting.
 
>Here is an example for the
>guys applying for Strip tags
>this year, assuming there are
>still gonna be 70 tags
>issued.
>
>Under the 20% pass rule, there
>will be 14 tags issued.
>Under the "old" rule, NR's
>with MAX points COULD get
>up to 7 tags.
>
>This year, with the "New" 5%-5%
>rule in place,NR's with MAX
>points will get up to
>3 tags (yes, they round
>down). That means that Arizona
>residents with max points will
>get 11 of those first
>14 tags in the 20%
>bonus point pass draw!
>
>But that also means that there
>are still ostensibly 4 tags
>still available to NR's, which
>is true, but consider that
>they will be put in
>the general draw with ALL
>the Arizona residents too.
>
>Remember, there are no "NR set
>aside" tags, so no guarantee
>if there will be 1
>to 4 NR tags issued
>in the second draw.
>
>That means the odds to draw
>are probably very, very slim,
>but you have a chance!
>
>
>No computer modeling was done to
>see how this will work.
>
>
>Will NR's get 1-4 tags on
>the Strip under the new
>5%-5% rule??? No one knows
>for sure at this point.
>Gonna be an interesting draw
>year for sure..
>
>Don Martin

Good post Don
will you or anybody else please break it down using this years quota of 75. Will the extra 5 tags increase the resident tags in the bonus pass? Thanks
 

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