"In a lot of units, there has been a consistent range of points required to draw, ie minimal point creep. Take 6A early archery as an example. for 5 years those with 7-11 points could count on drawing a permit. This was not an increasing demand, there simply have been point holders within that range for 5 years that put in and draw, every year (with only a couple of exceptions where it took 8 points). Now, if those same point holders apply again in 2016, only half of those 7-11pt guys will draw in the bonus round. They will be kicked into the 1-2 pass with the approximately 4500 other people. A few of them will draw in this pass, but probably not most of them. Because of the sheer number of low point holders, many of this group will win the tags. Next year the same group of guys come back 1 point richer and you have point creep. Again, there has NOT been point creep in 5 years in 6a early archery. It WILL happen now... "
Bill
I would consider 6A to be a "low tier" unit. The reason I consider it a "low tier" unit is because it can be drawn in the random draw (not enough demand from high point holders to draw the 10% in the max point drawing). There are several units at this level. Or what I consider "entry level" for bonus points. These units typical sit around 6 - 8 points to draw and stay at that level. I consider the mid tier units to be in the 10 - 15 point range and have had point creep of approx 2 points every 3 years. the upper tier units are the 17+ and typically go up about 1 point per year.
Lets look at 6A, since that is the unit you referenced:
2011 - 31 drew in the max point draw with 7 points and 28 drew in the random draw.
2012 - 62 drew in the max point draw with 7 points and 3 drew in the random draw.
2013 - 46 drew in the max point draw with 6 points and 31 drew in the random draw.
2014 - 36 drew in the max point draw with 6 points and 41 drew in the random draw.
2015 - 38 drew in the max point draw with 7 points and 39 drew in the random.
So when looking at the last 5 years it has taken 6 - 7 points to draw in the max point drawing. With the exception of 2012, approximately half of the 10% allocation for NR's was even drawn in the max point draw (5%). Therefore, the current changes shouldn't really affect this unit since only 5% of the NR allocation are currently being drawn in the max point drawing anyway.
In my opinion, the reason for this is twofold. #1 - some guys are only wanting to draw the mid tier or upper tier units. And #2 - when guys reach 10 - 12 points, they don't want to "waste" them on a unit that could be drawn with only 6 - 7 points. Similarily, when a guy reaches 17 points he wont want to "waste" them on a unit that could be drawn with 10 or 11 points.
So, in the new system some guys with 6 - 7 points may apply for a mid or upper tier unit as their first choice, but if they still put 6A as their second choice, then they will draw the 6A tag anyway before even going into random draw.
Yes I agree that some of the mid and upper tier tags will go to applicants with few points but those guys are so far behind that they will never catch up with the guys with more points. I think likewise, a person with 20 points might put in for a unit that takes 20+ points to draw as a first choice and maybe a unit that takes 17 points to draw as a second choice. he will then draw the 17 point unit and drop out of the upper point pool. He wont apply for the unit that only takes 6 - 7 points or even a mid tier unit though. I think some of this was happening already though.
So yes point creep will "continue" in the mid and upper tier units, but I don't think it will impact the lower tier units all that much.