Best Chances to Draw

Broadside_Shot · Mar 14, 2016

I am really wanting to draw my Archery Elk Tag next year. I love the forests of Arizona and finally am in a position to take the time and financially afford a great hunt. I don't know if I will ever get to hunt Arizona again.

I have 13 Non-Resident points. If I get the Hunter Education Point this year I will be going in the draw next year with 14 points.

With the new odds for Non-Residents, I was hoping someone could tell me the likely hood of drawing some units and where I likely stand in the grand scheme of things.

I have hunted 6B with my Dad and Uncle twice over the last 15 years.
I was wanting to apply for a Unit 1 Archery Tag but am not sure if i will be able to draw it.

Any advice would be appreciated.

junior · Mar 14, 2016

LAST EDITED ON Mar-14-16 AT 05:27PM (MST)[p]27, 3a-3c,4b, 7w, 8..you are behind for 1

We have to wait and see how this plays out to get a grip on 2017. I'd maybe hold out a few years with that many points.

bonecollector777 · Mar 14, 2016

You are right there close to a unit 1 tag. Last year 21 of 25 people drew with 14. Obviously with the changes it will be a little worse this year but you still have a decent chance. You will draw 27 or 3c if you apply for those which are good hunts. 3c is coming up in quality over the last couple years. 27 I would say is going down in quality and pressure. If you're set on hunting next year apply for 3c and go kill a 360"+ bull. Do not waste 14 points on anything except 1, 3c, 27, 23, or 9. It's better to wait another year or two and have the hunt of a lifetime rather than wasting them on a Mediocre hunt. I personally wouldn't waste 14 on unit 27. I'd put down 1 first choice and 3c seconds. More than likely you're gonna automatically get a 3c tag unless tons of people drop down from unit 9 and 23 just to get a tag.

SpotnstalkAZ · Mar 15, 2016

BC777 is spot on- great advise! I had the unit 1 archery bull hunt last year and it was the best elk hunt I've ever been on. 3c is a dandy too- cant go wrong with either. Just my 2 cents!

DonMartin · Mar 15, 2016

Don't really think you are in the running for Unit 9, and last year with the date changes of the archery hunt, was a real tough hunt!

Unit 3A-3C, is a winner!

Going to be interesting to see how the new 5%-5% rule plays out for Non-residents.

I'm sure there will be a FEW NR's who draw with less than max, but will they get 5% in the second draw? Who knows, G&F didn't do a computer model on this, so they have no idea..

I think it is the old carrot in front of the mule deal...(5%)

I guess we'll see in a few weeks...

Don Martin
Arizona Wildlife Outfitters

couesmagnet · Mar 16, 2016

I saw a video filmed in 27 last year by a very reputable hunter i know, and he had at least 5 bulls over 380 during the rut. Don't count out 27, it's just not as easy as 1. 3C bulls get hammered with pressure and lots of non tag holders scouting for a few tag holders. Lots of pressure in 3c but some big bulls!!

bonecollector777 · Mar 16, 2016

Not saying that's not true. But very few Bulls over 380 were killed in 27 last year. Very few Bulls over 360 actually. Mix that with the country you hunt in and it's not one I'd personally spend that many points on. But if someone knows the unit real well they could do good. I'd say pressure in 27 is equal to if not more than 3c. Similar tag numbers but seems like everyone and their dog is out in 27. A lot of hunters are pushed into the same areas in 27.

osu92 · Mar 21, 2016

I'll echo bonecollector's sentiments about 27. My buddy and I burned 12 points last year on archery tags there and it simply wasn't the quality Arizona elk hunting experience I had hoped for after waiting that long. Lots of bull tags plus lots more cow tags and everyone brings along a couple of buddies to hunt with them. And even though the unit is big, everyone hunts in the same general area in the upper section of the unit, making things pretty crowded at times. We did see some real whoppers but after opening morning they mostly went quiet and were really hard to hunt. Plus all the brush that's come back after the fire sucks to hunt in.

I'd hold out for something else if I were in your shoes, but that's just my $0.02.

Broadside_Shot · Mar 21, 2016

Thanks everyone for the info. I will be making a trip down there this year to scout a little and become more familiar. I am looking forward to next year and doing some good hunting.

Zim · Mar 25, 2016

LAST EDITED ON Mar-25-16 AT 09:11PM (MST)[p]Broadside,
I have 14 (soon to be 15) NR points and crunched the numbers. If you do the math you will agree with me and come to the reality that you were squarely thrown under the bus and are dreaming if you plan to draw archery elk unit 1 in "an extra year or two". There's no way in hell that's gonna happen. I went through this with Colorado when they went to their "reduced quota in units taking residents over 6 points"......."change". The carrot and the mule analogy is spot on. Count up the number of NR applicants between the point level it has taken to draw units 9 & 23, then how many it has taken to draw units 1 & 3C. Because there's so few trophy units in Arizona there's nothing in between these units as far as quality, not now.

Now if you are a HuntersTrail member add up how many NR preference tags will be available each year under the reduced 5% quota. And you can a few out from that 400 in the random draw. Very few. Now where do you think these 400 guys are going to apply when they realize it's going to take 30 years to clear them out if they wait for unit 9/23??? I will let you make that decision. A few will die first so you can deduct those.

These 400 will sprinkle down gradually as they realize their unit 9 dream is ovaaaaaa. Book it. So don't be deceived by the stats from 2016. Been there done that. You are totally screwed at your 13 point level, same as my partner and I at 14. You will be lucky to draw a less desirable unit 8 or 27 tag.

To anyone out there who thinks Broadside will draw a unit 1 tag within three years I have $100,000 I'll bet straight up right now that says no way in hell. Line up and place your bets.

My buddy and I went over the numbers and came up with a strategy, but I really don't expect it to work. I see a pretty big rush of bailers in 2017 when they do the math.

*****************************************************
Greenhorns educate yourselves. Wherever SFW goes, scandals and corruption follow. Write your legislators:

http://kutv.com/news/local/allegations-of-corruption-surround-utah-hungtin-and-conservation-expo

https://www.cascwild.org/don-peay-the-man-who-would-be-king-baron/

http://www.fieldandstream.com/blogs...ares-north-american-hunting-model-“socialism”

http://www.standard.net/Recreation/...16-Western-Hunting-and-Conservation-Expo.html

http://www.mtbullypulpit.org/2012/06/pox-on-fox.html

http://www.thewildlifenews.com/2013...on-essentially-buy-utah-division-of-wildlife/

http://westernvaluesproject.org/tax...hunting-energy-industry-over-hunters-anglers/

http://www.nytimes.com/2012/12/02/u...-but-hunters-cry-foul.html?smid=pl-share&_r=2

http://www.themudflats.net/archives/25891

Zim · Mar 25, 2016

>Thanks everyone for the info.
>I will be making a
>trip down there this year
>to scout a little and
>become more familiar. I
>am looking forward to next
>year and doing some good
>hunting.

Unless you have your sights set on a late rifle tag, I strongly recommend you not waste any of your time scouting unit 1. Best set your sights on 27, 7 or 8. Those are going to be the only places you'll draw any time soon.

*****************************************************
Greenhorns educate yourselves. Wherever SFW goes, scandals and corruption follow. Write your legislators:

http://kutv.com/news/local/allegations-of-corruption-surround-utah-hungtin-and-conservation-expo

https://www.cascwild.org/don-peay-the-man-who-would-be-king-baron/

http://www.fieldandstream.com/blogs...ares-north-american-hunting-model-“socialism”

http://www.standard.net/Recreation/...16-Western-Hunting-and-Conservation-Expo.html

http://www.mtbullypulpit.org/2012/06/pox-on-fox.html

http://www.thewildlifenews.com/2013...on-essentially-buy-utah-division-of-wildlife/

http://westernvaluesproject.org/tax...hunting-energy-industry-over-hunters-anglers/

http://www.nytimes.com/2012/12/02/u...-but-hunters-cry-foul.html?smid=pl-share&_r=2

http://www.themudflats.net/archives/25891

junior · Mar 25, 2016

Nothing like a negative thinking crybaby...jees

Zim · Mar 25, 2016

>Nothing like a negative thinking crybaby...jees
>

numbnuts, Please do the math and propose to the OP a realistic scenario where these 400 point holders will go. Instead of your uneducated, unproductive mindless drivel.

The man asked a question and I clearly laid out the reality. Anyone who disagrees is either a math retard or high on dope. Period. What's to see "play out"? See Colorado. Disagree? Please, provide a historical example instead of more mindless drivel.

*****************************************************
Greenhorns educate yourselves. Wherever SFW goes, scandals and corruption follow. Write your legislators:

http://kutv.com/news/local/allegations-of-corruption-surround-utah-hungtin-and-conservation-expo

https://www.cascwild.org/don-peay-the-man-who-would-be-king-baron/

http://www.fieldandstream.com/blogs...ares-north-american-hunting-model-“socialism”

http://www.standard.net/Recreation/...16-Western-Hunting-and-Conservation-Expo.html

http://www.mtbullypulpit.org/2012/06/pox-on-fox.html

http://www.thewildlifenews.com/2013...on-essentially-buy-utah-division-of-wildlife/

http://westernvaluesproject.org/tax...hunting-energy-industry-over-hunters-anglers/

http://www.nytimes.com/2012/12/02/u...-but-hunters-cry-foul.html?smid=pl-share&_r=2

http://www.themudflats.net/archives/25891

tooele · Mar 25, 2016

If someone has 5 plus bulls filmed in 27 that are over 380 they are likely pulling your leg. They probably filmed them in unit 1 in the summer when they come off of the reservation. That would be a pretty tall order in 27. I do think the fish and game will be pretty sure to get the 10% to non-residents. They are pretty good about making sure that happens. No computer model needed just a couple of ladies in a back room to make sure it happens when the computer doesn't make it happen. Why else would it take fish and game so long to do a draw? Honestly, you need to decide what you want in a hunt. Arizona offers a lot of hunts that will get you into 330 to 350 bulls. Not just in the above mentioned hunts. If you would be happy with a bull of that caliber then think outside the box. If you have to shoot a bull over 350 then those units are your best shot, but you would be surprised how many people hunt in those above mentioned units that get nowhere near a 350 inch bull. If I was an out of state guy and had all those points I would hire the best, most reputable guide you can and put in a unit they recommend. Good Luck

junior · Mar 25, 2016

Zim...did you forget about the random side of things there spoiled rich kid? I mean your whining and bitching on all these forums, like a bit$$ on the rag! Grow a sack and shut the rhetorical the sky is falling bs... a $100,000 wager..what a blow hard!
You have no idea the random side just like the rest of us!

Zim · Mar 26, 2016

Nostradamus,

"Spoiled rich kid"? WTF. So that's what this is about, class envy because you classify me as "rich" due to my 14 points. Really??? I drive a 1999 Jeep Cherokee LE with 304k miles. Your knowledge of my "wealth" is equal to that of your math skills.

Nowhere did I say "the sky is falling" except in your hashish induced fantasy. And my bet stands, remove the sack and put your money where your mouth is.

You seriously can't even estimate the random odds now given how many applied last year in all the point pools? Those point pool levels are readily available and it's the first thing I did. It ain't a pretty picture. I posted some of these numbers in a previous thread. Even if you figure in ALL the 10% going to NRs the odds are powerball.

Now please Nostradamus, please. Be constructive and lay out a scenario for the OP where the 400 "rich" point holders between 9 and 1 are going to go. Please don't tell us you have no answer after all your blowhard Hillary mentality posts.

*****************************************************
Greenhorns educate yourselves. Wherever SFW goes, scandals and corruption follow. Write your legislators:

http://kutv.com/news/local/allegations-of-corruption-surround-utah-hungtin-and-conservation-expo

https://www.cascwild.org/don-peay-the-man-who-would-be-king-baron/

http://www.fieldandstream.com/blogs...ares-north-american-hunting-model-“socialism”

http://www.standard.net/Recreation/...16-Western-Hunting-and-Conservation-Expo.html

http://www.mtbullypulpit.org/2012/06/pox-on-fox.html

http://www.thewildlifenews.com/2013...on-essentially-buy-utah-division-of-wildlife/

http://westernvaluesproject.org/tax...hunting-energy-industry-over-hunters-anglers/

http://www.nytimes.com/2012/12/02/u...-but-hunters-cry-foul.html?smid=pl-share&_r=2

http://www.themudflats.net/archives/25891

Zim · Mar 26, 2016

I'm so glad I'm "rich" now! Finally time for me to upgrade my vehicle after my ten years of recovery from the unemployed trailer trash ex. Anyone know if Mercedes makes a 4WD SUV? Maybe Don Peay will know.

Even got an extra $20 from TitleMax on my Jeep.

http://www.monstermuleys.info/photos/user_photos3/4147image.jpeg

Zim · Mar 26, 2016

LAST EDITED ON Mar-26-16 AT 02:16PM (MST)[p]Dang. TitleMax just lowered their offer to $15 when they found out the windshield leaks and the A/C's never worked since I bought it used in Gunnison in 2006. That Benz can't get here soon enuf!

http://www.monstermuleys.info/photos/user_photos3/977image.jpeg

Broadside_Shot · Mar 29, 2016

Thanks for all the responses guys, I appreciate it.

I was just building points until I could get the whole hunt off of work. Well that was going to be next year.

Not sure what to do now...

osu92 · Mar 29, 2016

This is EXACTLY why my buddy and I jumped on the chance to cash out our 12 points last year. Sure, it was on a somewhat disappointing 27 archery hunt but at least we got to hunt and use our 12 points instead of having them lose a hugely significant portion of their value.

I feel bad for all those in that 12-15 point range that are all of a sudden in no-man's land. Good luck fellas!

Zim · Mar 29, 2016

Yes, Arizona has created the same "no man's land" that Colorado did between unit 61 and the Northwest units, by in large part to their 6 point R devaluation several years ago. Anyone in that zone knows exactly what I'm talking about.

****************************************************
Greenhorns educate yourselves. Wherever SFW goes, scandals and corruption follow. Write your legislators:

http://kutv.com/news/local/allegations-of-corruption-surround-utah-hungtin-and-conservation-expo

https://www.cascwild.org/don-peay-the-man-who-would-be-king-baron/

http://www.fieldandstream.com/blogs...ares-north-american-hunting-model-“socialism”

http://www.standard.net/Recreation/...16-Western-Hunting-and-Conservation-Expo.html

http://www.mtbullypulpit.org/2012/06/pox-on-fox.html

http://www.thewildlifenews.com/2013...on-essentially-buy-utah-division-of-wildlife/

http://westernvaluesproject.org/tax...hunting-energy-industry-over-hunters-anglers/

http://www.nytimes.com/2012/12/02/u...-but-hunters-cry-foul.html?smid=pl-share&_r=2

http://www.themudflats.net/archives/25891

muleman74 · Mar 29, 2016

I have done a ton of research helping friends that are out of staters and zim is spot on, last year everyone ran trying to dump points before the change and it will continue now that the timelines have went up how high is yet to be determined but I would not waste points on 27 it is a use to be awsome unit that has fell on its face is there still a giant there yes every unit in Arizona can produce one but odds are highly against you good luck and do your own research and call the game warden of any unit you might be in and take a family vacation to verify your willing to dump them off.