LAST EDITED ON Aug-22-13 AT 10:14AM (MST)[p]>How do they figure there odds?
>like are they based on
>an applicant with 0 points?
>or max points? Just wonder
>where I fit in with
>my 10 NR points for
>elk and so on.
>
>Thanks, HEZZY
They figure (or at least, print) the odds based on the number of people who applied in your point group. That seems rather simple, but it is grossly deceiving!
Except for the top group, the odds are MUCH higher than printed. You are actually competing with the people in ALL of the point groups, not just your own. And not only are you competing with all of the individuals, you're competing with ALL of their points including those in the top group who didn't draw.
For instance, on the Fillmore, Pahvant LE Archery Elk hunt there were 2 NR tags. Per the 50/50 rule, 1 tag was drawn by a person in the top group of 3 (15 points) so his odds were 1 in 3. But the second tag was drawn by a person in a group of 18 applicants who had only 6 points. His odds were listed at 1 in 18, but his real odds were 1 in 214 if you just count ALL the applicants or 1 in 1,473 if you count ALL of the applicants' points (plus the current draw) which were his actual odds.
Also keep in mind that there were 8,916 total NR elk point holders with 51,032 points who just bought points and didn't apply this year who could come back into the game and into any hunt at any time. How fun is that!
Now, having said all of that, you're actually in pretty good shape with your 10 NR points. In fact there are a lot of archery elk hunts and some rifle hunts that would be a slam dunk for you. You'll just have to decide whether or not they are worth your 10 points.