T
tinenut
Guest
I was thinking I should be in on a couple hunts, now I find out I was not even close. I guess start on next year's plan, with 19 desert sheep points and 14 elk.
littlebighorn
Long Time Member
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- 5,337
Tine,
I looked and discovered an additional person in my point pool from last year. I have 20 desert sheep points and thought I had a shoe in permit for this year. Now one of us is going to have to wait yet another year!
Go figure that one.
I looked and discovered an additional person in my point pool from last year. I have 20 desert sheep points and thought I had a shoe in permit for this year. Now one of us is going to have to wait yet another year!
Go figure that one.
T
tinenut
Guest
littlebighorn, I can't figure that out, looks like we gained an extra now with 20 points. Maybe someone turned the tag back in last year?
littlebighorn
Long Time Member
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- 5,337
Don't rightly know dead boobs, but that name sure describes me!
Tine,
As I think about it, I am guessing a NR with 20 points moved here to get a sheep tag!
Tine,
As I think about it, I am guessing a NR with 20 points moved here to get a sheep tag!
One of my buddies put in a party app for the wasatch early rifle. Turns out they were 2 of the 7 that did not draw with 13 pts. Do you guys think that party apps help or hurt your odds? I was also part of a party app with fairly good odds and did not draw. Just wondering what everyone else's experience was? Never seem to hear of party apps working for the more desireable hunts, more for general deer or other less sought after units.
elkfromabove
Very Active Member
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- 2,122
LAST EDITED ON Aug-22-13 AT 10:14AM (MST)[p]>How do they figure there odds?
>like are they based on
>an applicant with 0 points?
>or max points? Just wonder
>where I fit in with
>my 10 NR points for
>elk and so on.
>
>Thanks, HEZZY
They figure (or at least, print) the odds based on the number of people who applied in your point group. That seems rather simple, but it is grossly deceiving!
Except for the top group, the odds are MUCH higher than printed. You are actually competing with the people in ALL of the point groups, not just your own. And not only are you competing with all of the individuals, you're competing with ALL of their points including those in the top group who didn't draw.
For instance, on the Fillmore, Pahvant LE Archery Elk hunt there were 2 NR tags. Per the 50/50 rule, 1 tag was drawn by a person in the top group of 3 (15 points) so his odds were 1 in 3. But the second tag was drawn by a person in a group of 18 applicants who had only 6 points. His odds were listed at 1 in 18, but his real odds were 1 in 214 if you just count ALL the applicants or 1 in 1,473 if you count ALL of the applicants' points (plus the current draw) which were his actual odds.
Also keep in mind that there were 8,916 total NR elk point holders with 51,032 points who just bought points and didn't apply this year who could come back into the game and into any hunt at any time. How fun is that!
Now, having said all of that, you're actually in pretty good shape with your 10 NR points. In fact there are a lot of archery elk hunts and some rifle hunts that would be a slam dunk for you. You'll just have to decide whether or not they are worth your 10 points.
>like are they based on
>an applicant with 0 points?
>or max points? Just wonder
>where I fit in with
>my 10 NR points for
>elk and so on.
>
>Thanks, HEZZY
They figure (or at least, print) the odds based on the number of people who applied in your point group. That seems rather simple, but it is grossly deceiving!
Except for the top group, the odds are MUCH higher than printed. You are actually competing with the people in ALL of the point groups, not just your own. And not only are you competing with all of the individuals, you're competing with ALL of their points including those in the top group who didn't draw.
For instance, on the Fillmore, Pahvant LE Archery Elk hunt there were 2 NR tags. Per the 50/50 rule, 1 tag was drawn by a person in the top group of 3 (15 points) so his odds were 1 in 3. But the second tag was drawn by a person in a group of 18 applicants who had only 6 points. His odds were listed at 1 in 18, but his real odds were 1 in 214 if you just count ALL the applicants or 1 in 1,473 if you count ALL of the applicants' points (plus the current draw) which were his actual odds.
Also keep in mind that there were 8,916 total NR elk point holders with 51,032 points who just bought points and didn't apply this year who could come back into the game and into any hunt at any time. How fun is that!
Now, having said all of that, you're actually in pretty good shape with your 10 NR points. In fact there are a lot of archery elk hunts and some rifle hunts that would be a slam dunk for you. You'll just have to decide whether or not they are worth your 10 points.
A party application will hurt you if there is only 1 tag remaining when your group application is drawn. If that occurs, they will skip over you and go to the next single applicant - even if it that applicant is in a lower point pool. I have seen instances where a group applied for a hunt that only offered 2 tags. Even though they were several points levels above the next applicant, the single applicant got the tag.
Good luck to everyone that drew this year. The fun is just beginning!!
Jon
www.HuntersTrailhead.com
Good luck to everyone that drew this year. The fun is just beginning!!
Jon
www.HuntersTrailhead.com
