Arizona Drawing Odds

[JDC]

For those that are interested and not out hunting, the Arizona drawing odds database has been updated. The deer and sheep are not included at this point. I will get them in there as soon as the application reports come available.

http://huntodds.monstermuleys.com/

Jon
www.HuntersTrailhead.com

 

[vmcfadden]

What are bonus tags is that additional tags they give in the unit each year or just that specific year.

 

[JDC]

Bonus tags are not extra tags. 20% of the tags (bonus tags) are reserved for applicants with the most points in any particular hunt. In the drawing Arizona calls this the "bonus pass". In the random drawing, the remaining 80% are available to anyone (1st and 2nd choice pass).

I hope that this helps.

Jon
www.HuntersTrailhead.com

 

[DonMartin]

Hey Jon:

The only thing I would add to your good post is that IF the NR 10% has been reached in that 20% pass draw (which routinely happens in the early elk and deer draws in 13B) then the remaining 80% of the tags are available to ONLY residents.

Don Martin
Arizona Wildlife Outfitters

 

[PCPython]

Is there a place to find resident vs nonresident application numbers. My dad and I applied for archery elk tags for 7 West with 9 points and didn't draw. We are nonresidents. Thanx...

 

[DonMartin]

I don't think that there is a document out there (at least I don't know about it) that breaks down the resident vs nonresident applications.

Any one else know if there is one?

Last year (2010) I had a NR who had 14 points and he did draw a 7 West tag.

You can check out Jon's website www.Hunterstrailhead.com to see how many points it takes to draw a tag there.

Don Martin
AWO

 

[PCPython]

I looked and with 9 points which is what we had this year, the odds were 100%. However we did not draw. I'm guessing it's because of the 10% nonresident allocation. Also, I'm looking at possibly going to Arizona to take the Hunters Ed Class. Do they conduct field day classes in November, December, and January? Thanx again.

 

[DonMartin]

How about these options.

If you are thinking of taking the online hunter ed class, the hunter ed team here in Kingman will be conducting a field day on November 5th.

Not sure about other dates/times around the state.

If you want to learn about the draw and how it works, 10% rule, 20% pass, etc. then take our one day hunter ed supplemental class on Saturday, January 7, 2012 here in Kingman.

Both will earn you a permanent bonus point for attending, and my feeling is if you're coming to Arizona anyway, why not take the one day class and come away with more information?

Your choice though, the online class and field day is an option for sure.

The only difference in these is that you must have completed hunter ed in your home state after 1980 in order to take the one day class. For the online you do not.

If you need more information you can contact me at [email protected] or by calling Dave Williams Hunter Education Coordinator for the AZ G&F at 623-236-7434.

Don Martin
Master Instructor
AZ Hunter Education
Region III
Kingman, AZ

 

[JDC]

Sorry for the delay guys. I have been out doing a bit of scouting for myself here in Utah this past weekend. Only 10 more days!!!!!!


PCPython,

What hunt did you apply for? Send me a PM if you would prefer not revealing that information publicly. If the odds charts say that the odds at your level were 100%, you should have drawn regardless of the NR cap. If you will let me know what hunt you applied for, I will dig into it for you.

Don,

Thanks for the addition to my earlier post. Yes, there are units where a non-resident, that does not have enough points to participate in the 20% bonus pass, will have a 0% chance of drawing. Click the "Read Details" link on the Arizona hunt selector page here.
http://monstermuleys.hunterstrailhead.com/huntsearch.php?ST=AZ

As for a report showing resident and non-resident applications separately - I have tried multiple times to acquire a report showing that information. But for what ever reason, the Arizona Game and Fish have been unable or unwilling to provide that information. I will keep trying however.

Jon
www.HuntersTrailhead.com

 

[PCPython]

PM Sent

 

[sremim]

Nothing is ever 100% in a bonus point draw. Just because it may show a 100% draw one year, does not mean it will be the same the next.

 

[JDC]

PCPython,

Thanks for the PM. First off, I would ask you to be certain that you had 9 points going into this years drawing. If you have 9 now, you would have only had 8 going in and you need to look at the 8 point level odds. That will explain why you did not draw as the odds at that level were not 100%.

If you indeed had 9 points going in, it does appear that you have gotten caught up in the non-resident quota issue we have already talked about. The hunt you applied for (and I am assuming you chose the 1st season) awarded bonus tags to the level below you. The only way for that to have happened and you not draw is that the non-resident quota had to have been met before your names came out of the computer. This is explained on the link I provided in my previous post. My system identified this particular hunt as a potential non-resident quota problem, but I was unable to verify that for certain - until now. With your input, I can now say that your odds were around 30% instead of 100% and all non-residents with fewer than 9 points had a 0% chance. I will be changing the odds database to reflect this.

With that in mind, 10 points has been a guarantee on this unit for the past 5 years so you will likely be hunting next year.

Good luck.

Jon
www.HuntersTrailhead.com

 

[PCPython]

Thanx for the response. We definitely had 9 points going into the 2011 draw so the nonresident quota must have gotten us this time. I am contemplating heading to AZ this winter for the hunter ed class to gain another point. Gotta draw one of these years.

 

[DonMartin]

If I knew for a fact that I only had to take AZ Hunter Education class to get the permanent bonus point and that would mean I would draw the AZ elk tag I was seeking, I'd be booking the flight right now and signing up for the January class!

This is really a no-brainer...

Don Martin
AWO

 

[PCPython]

I have been looking into it. My only problem is I have a January archery deer tag in New Mexico. Thinking about taking a couple of days out of my hunt and heading to AZ though.

 

[DonMartin]

lets see how this works...archery deer in NM OR your once-in-a-lifetime archery elk hunt in unit 7W?

Ah, I'll see you January 7, 2012 here in Kingman.

Don Martin