Bonus point questions

[StickFlinger]

I know everyone says that if you don't have max points a NR can't draw a strip tag. But don't I have a chance with one less from max? I thought 1/2 the tags went to the max pool and the rest went into the general draw pool giving me a chance. Am I'm wrong? I know I need the hunter ed point will try to make it down next year but would still like to think I have a shot this year.

 

[redrabbit]

I have not heard that they changed the rule. Those with max BP will still gobble up all the NR strip tags. Don has posted that there are 179 NR with max BP. Get that hunter ed point asap. With only 45 rifle permits in 13B this year, the NR draw will be tough for those 4 tags
http://www.monstermuleys.info/dcforum/DCForumID6/16316.html

 

[redrabbit]

There will be 30 archery permits in 13B this year, so 3 for NR. I imagine many of the 179 NR with max BP may consider this option.
http://www.azgfd.gov/pdfs/h_f/regulations/08-09/08-09.pdf

 

[sremim]

Only 20% of the tags are set aside for the max point drawing. Many people say the NR will draw their 10% of tags in that 20% draw.














It's Bush's fault!!!

 

[jasn]

I don't know the actual #'s, but according to Hunt Az 2008 there are about 83 residents with max bonus points and 204 NR's.

So for you to have a chance (using these #'s and those above from redrabbit) you will need 5 residents to draw 5 of 8 tags in the max bonus point round. It will be a long shot though, since residents are outnumbered nearly 2.5:1. If it happened, this would leave one tag to go into the general pool. Any nonresident would then have a chance at this one tag. However, all the max bonus point holders will then be in the general pass as well and have a second chance at this one tag along with you. Similarly, you can see this could happen for two tags, and so on, but even less likely. It could happen since we're only talking about 5 tags, its even less likely though if the number was 8 tags like it was last year.

You can then see why that one bonus point is hurting your odds. Either way, you're asking about a long shot in the dark, but its possible.

 

[DonMartin]

OK fellas, here is the latest "scoop" I have on this situation.

There are just over 200 NR's with max points for deer (11) and 91 AZ residents. This after my last Hunter Ed class...

Now here is the real scary part.

There are over 700 who have 10 bonus points. Most of those are NR's and most are only missing the AZ Hunter ED point that will put them in that max bonus point pool.

Remember the rules: NR's can draw UP TO 10% of the tags per unit--they are not "guaranteed" that number. And with the 20% pass rule in effect, this is what happens in the PREMIUM hunts north of the ditch. The NR's with max points will draw the 10% in that first draw ( 4 on the Strip, 17 on the Kaibab) thereby making it impossible for a NR with less than max points to draw a tag. I know people say it COULD happen, but it hasn't in the last three years and it won't happen under the current rules.

Here is what I predict. The max NR pool is going to get larger every year for the next 5 years as guys realize that they only need the AZ Hunter Ed point to get in the deer game.

On the other hand, the resident max pool, which is also 11 points, now has 91 people in it, will go down in the next 3-5 years. Remember those AZ guys and gals in the max pool not only get in that 20% pass draw, but then if they don't make it, they go into the regular draw for the leftover tags from the 20% pass draw, and they have the most points of any applicant!


Basic math and probabilities says they have a better chance to draw with 11 points than does a resident say with 5...

I've got 9 points this year and my strategy is to apply for the Strip ( I'll be in the running for 34 of those rifle tags!) as my first choice, while applying for the late, west side Kaibab hunt as my second choice. I figure I'm in the running for 140 out of those 175 tags...

Don't know if I'll get a tag this year but unless Lady Luck just completely abandons me, it won't be long....

Good luck guys!

Don Martin
AWO

 

[azoutback]

Will passing the safety course now give me the hunter ed point for this years deer draw?

 

[huntazido]

No, if you were to complete the class today, your hunter ed point would not show up and be used by game and fish until the spring draw in October. You probably would have had to complete the class by March or first part of April at the latest.

 

[azoutback]

I took the course yesterday. They said I missed it by one week. Oh well, next year. Was A very good class.

 

[StickFlinger]

Okay now that it is a certain that I won't draw a tag with 10 points, here is the question. Will I save any money for only putting in for bonus points? I all ready have a license. Or should I just put in and wait for the unsuccessful letter?

 

[DonMartin]

I think you're silly if you send in the money knowing that you can't draw! Of course I and other AZ sportsmen and the AZ G&F Dept. appreciate the support of wildlife that comes with your application. Your application fee will be deposited and drawing interest for the department but later on you'll get it back less the $7.50 application fee.

Of course that is assuming you are going to apply for one of the permier deer tags north of the Ditch that only the NR's with max bonus points can draw.

If you were to apply for a hunt you could actually draw with 10 BP's, then that would be something else.

OR if you were a resident, then by all means apply. After all, as I've shown I have only 9 points yet can draw any of the 34 available 13B tags or 140 of the late 12A West tags AFTER the 20% pass draw is done.

So tell us, what ARE you going to do?

Don Martin

 

[Gator]

Don I figure about 5 or 6 years I will be at 14 or 15 points and then I will move over to kingman for a year and draw as a resident. LOL

 

[StickFlinger]

Call me nuts but this is what I did. 1st - 13A, 2nd - 13B,
3rd - 12B Late. All Any Weapon. Slim chance, Maybe? Anyway it a pleasant surprise when you get your refund check back.
Good luck to all.

 

[DonMartin]

StickFlicker:

I'm guessing you didn't have max bonus points, right?

If so, yep you've wasted your ink.

Forget a third choice, NEVER going to happen on a PREMIUM hunt, no matter the species!

In our system, the computer looks at only the first and second choices, it would only look at a third choice IF there were tags left over.

Don

 

[Pruney]

Don,

Do you know when the book comes out that has the full data on unit specific bonus point applicants and draw odds?

Thanks

 

[cjboz]

All of this is jibberish to me since I am going to win the Super big Game Raffle Tag! Serious though, it does not look good for me to draw a Strip tag.

 

[DonMartin]

No, I don't know when that stats book will come out.

I suspect I will need to buy it again, but I think I paid $75 last year for it.

Good luck with the draw.

"I just need ONE tag!"

Don Martin