If your'e going in with 6, that means you're in the 2009 group of 5 points. there were 90 people in that group, of which 5 drew tags. there were 24 left in the group ahead of you post draw. there also appears to be about 10 people each year that apply with higher points, either they've just been buying points or tired of waitng to draw the henry mtn or paunsagaunt units.
if the permits stay the same then there will be 53 bonus point tags. Say 10 go to new applicants with higher points, 24 to the group ahead of you, that leaves 19 permits for the 85 people left in your group, or 22%. You can always draw a regular tag after that which would be 53 chances with roughly 800 other people with varying number of bonus points and corresponding chances. you'd be less than 1% chance in this draw, around .023% if I had to put a number to it.
If you didn't draw you would find yourself in the group the next year with 66 or so people in the max category (IF, and it's a big IF) nobody with higher or similar points puts in that didn't the past year. if there were still only 53 bonus point tags, you still wouldn't be guranteed, but most certainly would the next year.
Also, I'd say there's a 100% chance you see a 4 point buck if you draw this tag and hunt