Bookcliffs archery deer percentage?

[Max_1]

I am trying to figure out how close I will be to drawing out for the books this year with 6 resident points? I know there are a lot of variables in estimating this such as people jumping in with more points that you can't factor in. I have looked at the odds, but just wanted to see if someone with knowledge on odd drawing could give me a ball park percentage.

 

[CATMAN]

Looks to me like you have a VERY good chance

 

[fatherofthree]

If your'e going in with 6, that means you're in the 2009 group of 5 points. there were 90 people in that group, of which 5 drew tags. there were 24 left in the group ahead of you post draw. there also appears to be about 10 people each year that apply with higher points, either they've just been buying points or tired of waitng to draw the henry mtn or paunsagaunt units.

if the permits stay the same then there will be 53 bonus point tags. Say 10 go to new applicants with higher points, 24 to the group ahead of you, that leaves 19 permits for the 85 people left in your group, or 22%. You can always draw a regular tag after that which would be 53 chances with roughly 800 other people with varying number of bonus points and corresponding chances. you'd be less than 1% chance in this draw, around .023% if I had to put a number to it.

If you didn't draw you would find yourself in the group the next year with 66 or so people in the max category (IF, and it's a big IF) nobody with higher or similar points puts in that didn't the past year. if there were still only 53 bonus point tags, you still wouldn't be guranteed, but most certainly would the next year.

Also, I'd say there's a 100% chance you see a 4 point buck if you draw this tag and hunt

 

[Max_1]

I drew it in 2001 and saw on average forty four points a day. I ended up with a 5x4 on the last day of my hunt. He wasn't big, but all I ended up was three weekends to hunt due to money constraints.

 

[sixgunn]

My dad and I drew archery tags in 09 with 6 points. It was a great time. Fun unit to hunt on. Lots of deer and awesome country. Good luck to you.....I'm jealous.