I questioned the accuracy of the posted odds in another thread and thought it might be interesting to people viewing this one as well.
"Look at an easy one just for kicks, pull up the odds for Johnson Mtn Ranch deer in Utah for 09. I chose this as it's fairly simple with only 2 regular tags.
One of the applicants with 4 points drew the bonus point tag so it leaves 5 people left in the drawing with 4,1,1,0,&0. Each get a chance for each point and one for this year. so the total NEW applicant chances are 11 (5,2,2,1,1) if you follow.
so if I'm one of the 2 chance (1 bonus point guys) your numbers say my odds are 40.8%. Simple math tells me that my chances are 2 in 11 for the first of the two remaining tags or 18%.
Suppose I didn't draw this tag (or draw the lowest number as we know how it works). Depending on if the guy with 5 chances or one with one chance drew the first tag, my next chances would be either 2 in 6 or 2 in 10. 33.3% or 20%. thus my best case scenario odds are 33.3% and worse case scenario odds are 20%."