W
Whatarethechances
Guest
I just looked over the results for the 200 tags raffled at the Hunting Expo. I was not surprised when I did not win a tag, but maybe my odds were not any better than the Utah DWR draw with too few points.
I was very surprised at the odds of some folks winning a tag. What struck me was 4 folks from Hooper, Utah won tags, 3 elk and 1 pronghorn. I am no statistician, but the 2007 odds for an elk were roughly 1/185 and 3 folks from Hooper got 3 of the 51 elk tags. I did not even know where Hooper was located so I checked it out, a small town in Weber County with about 6000 residents. Maybe the entire town put in for the tags and they are really lucky or maybe something else is going on?
Two of the folks that won the coveted elk tags had the same last name? Big hunting family? Lucky? All three of the folks live down the road from one another? The chance that 3 folks from a small town all win tags for the same animal is very suspicious. I hope some statistician runs the numbers, but my ball park figure is 1/1,000,000 chances that this will happen by random chance. Which is presumably the way the draw works - isn't it?
What do others think about this? Some folks are lucky and some folks are favored. I just would like to know if I should be hoping for a tag in the future or just donate my money to the MDF and SFH and help out the animals and know that the odds of getting a tag are not as advertised.
"Life isn't about how to survive the storm, but how to dance in the rain."
I was very surprised at the odds of some folks winning a tag. What struck me was 4 folks from Hooper, Utah won tags, 3 elk and 1 pronghorn. I am no statistician, but the 2007 odds for an elk were roughly 1/185 and 3 folks from Hooper got 3 of the 51 elk tags. I did not even know where Hooper was located so I checked it out, a small town in Weber County with about 6000 residents. Maybe the entire town put in for the tags and they are really lucky or maybe something else is going on?
Two of the folks that won the coveted elk tags had the same last name? Big hunting family? Lucky? All three of the folks live down the road from one another? The chance that 3 folks from a small town all win tags for the same animal is very suspicious. I hope some statistician runs the numbers, but my ball park figure is 1/1,000,000 chances that this will happen by random chance. Which is presumably the way the draw works - isn't it?
What do others think about this? Some folks are lucky and some folks are favored. I just would like to know if I should be hoping for a tag in the future or just donate my money to the MDF and SFH and help out the animals and know that the odds of getting a tag are not as advertised.
"Life isn't about how to survive the storm, but how to dance in the rain."