Idaho sheep, moose, and goat draw DECEIVING

[huntin100]

Few people know the REAL way Idaho does the draw. In my opinon it is very unfair and deceiving. A lot of people claim that Idaho has good odds for sheep, Moose, and Goats, because you have to buy a $150.00 license and you can't put in for elk,deer,or antelope draws if you put in for a sheep, moose,or goat hunt. THE REAL STORY. 1. Idaho puts in res and non residents in the draw together. 2. Hunts are COMBINED in the draw. It IS NOT hunt specific. Example, Best sheep odds unit, one would think is Unit 27-1. One in Five odds. HOWEVER, unit 11 last year had 612 non residents one non res drew. All applicants resident and non res are in the same draw. This equals about .5% chance of drawing ANY sheep tag in ANY unit for Idaho. NON RESIENTS ARE PAYING $150.00 TO BUY A LICENSE, PLUS APPLICATION FEES AND HAVE LESS THAN 1% CHANCE TO DRAW EVEN THE SO CALLED WORSE AREAS. I don't know the odds about moose and goats. I would guess they are less than 5%. Idaho head quarters phone number is 208 334-3700. The Pocatello office told me the drawing was unit specific earlier today. WRONG. Call and ask them if they think this is deceiving and fair.

 

[dwalton]

I've brought up the same thing under the sheep forum, and have been told that I'm wrong. The myth that there are good drawing odds will continue along as the Fools are being told this. At least Eastman's covered this in the bowhunting journal.

 

[isayNUNYA]

We should all get together and boycott the Idaho sheep drawing. At least it would up my odds.

 

[boneaddict]

I feel pretty good about Idaho. I drew moose the first year I applied, and then my Dad drew the first year he applied the next year. In fact he was the first tag drawn out of the hat period as 0000000001. I was happy as all get out. I'm hoping the wife draws this year. Who knows the way they changed everything or restructured the northern units and their seasons. Quite frankly, what improves the draw is the fact you have to choose which species you want, unlike Washington where 10,000 plus put in for the same tag, then again for each species. This is a disadvantage to someone like me who wants to hunt sheep or goat, but wants a crack at a great deer hunt as well. Decisions...decisions...... We won't even get into the stupid points game. OK...we will a little.....I like the fact there are no points! I wish all the states were that way!!!!!!!!

 

[shelbys]

In my experience, Idaho is pretty straight forward in their approach and not nearly as confusing as other states.

The regulations say that non-residents "can" draw up to 10% of the tags in any unit. It doesn't say anywhere that non-residents are guaranteed 10% of the tags.

Idaho has always drawn res and non-res from the same pool and as long as I can remember they have never claimed to do it otherwise.

My Dad puts in as a non-resident each year and some years the odds are good and some they are bad. I recall one year in an elk unit that there were 50 permits and only about 10 non-resident apps, and 5 non-residents drew. That is a 50% non-res success rate. There were about 300 residents that put in for the same tags, only 45 actually drawing. That is a 15% success rate.

In another year, I saw over 100 non-residents putting in for a choice deer unit with 75 tags, and only 3 drew, for a stellar 3% success rate.


In summary, the best way to think of Idaho is that residents and non-residents all go in together for the same tags and non-residents can draw equally to residents up to the 10% threshold.

 

[huntin100]

Dwalton, you are not wrong. I told the Idaho Boise office that it is only fair that sportsmen, know the true odds. The only reason why I buy a license some times is to go bird hunting and over the counter deer tag. I live 30 miles from Idaho.
If you buy a $150.00 license thinking you have a 5-10% chance or better in drawing a sheep or goat tag you are wrong. Less than 1%. That is like buying one raffle ticket for $150.00 dollars and 200 tickets are in the raffle bucket. One winner only. Lets give Idaho some feedback on the way they conduct the draw.

 

[huntin100]

Shelby, They do the draws differnt now than they did a few years ago.
Bone, My main complaint is that they group all units together in the draw, non res and res. Last year 1,245 non res applyed for sheep 6 non res drew a tag. That is .48% success. It will be about the same this year. Nothing will change unless, hunters know the true odds, and stop buying the $150 dollar license.

 

[bigbull1]

Are the residents and non-residents also pooled for deer and elk?

Ed

 

[huntin100]

Ed, yes. However, I don't know if it is as a big problem as with Sheep and Goat permits. It is still less than 10% in most if not all units.

 

[Salmonfg]

AS a regional wildlife manager for IDFG, I have answered several questions regarding the Idaho drawing process in past forum topics.

In regard to Sheep (same for goat and moose) in Idaho, the process is explained on page 7 of the current regulations:
(http://fishandgame.idaho.gov/cms/hunt/rules/mgs/ch.pdf)

"Nonresident Limitations: In controlled hunts with 10 or fewer
permits, not more than one nonresident permit will be issued.
Nonresident hunters are limited to no more than 10 percent of
the total number of controlled hunt permits FOR EACH SPECIES. In controlled hunts with more than 10 permits, not more than 10
percent of the permits will be issued to nonresidents." (emphasis added)


This seems to state fairly clearly the limitations on NRs.

"A lot of people claim that Idaho has good odds for sheep, Moose, and Goats..."

When discussing draw odds for sheep, moose, and goat, qualitative terms such as "good" become quite relative. There are 82 total sheep permits (61 Rocky Mt., 21 California) available in Idaho this year. Under the above rule, a maximum of 6 Rocky Mt tags can be issued to nonresidents, the same as in 2006.

Because of the way the drawing is conducted (all applications/hunts considered at once), it is not possible to calculate exact odds for indivdual hunts or even all hunts combined. Draw odds for individual hunts depend a great deal on what happened with NRs before an application comes up in the draw. At one extreme, if the lowest 6 numbers in the draw are all NRs (and they all selected different hunts) then those 6 would fill the nonresident quota and no other NRs could draw. At the other extreme, it is possible that no NRs are selected if the 61 lowest numbers are all residents. What actually happens is something in between and residents usually draw the maximum 10% quota.

On an individual hunt basis, if another NR drew before your number comes up, then you will not draw. If 6 NRs drew, across all other hunts, before your number comes up, likewise you won't draw, even if you are the first applicant who selected your hunt choice.

In a gross sense, total NR chances (using 2006 numbers) could be calulated as something like 6 in 1,789 (0.3%). But that is heavily biased by 1 hunt (area 11) because 612 of 1,245 NRs applied for that 1 hunt. In a worse case scenario, assume 1 of them draws area 11. Now there are still 5 permits available to NRs and the chances improve because half the NR applicants are out of the pool. For individual hunts, you can estimate maximum NR chances, by assuming 1 permit will be available. That gives chances in 16 of 19 hunts ranging from 1% up to about 12%, and 3 hunts at less than 1% (actual odds are lower because of the 10% overall quota).

Are those "good" odds? I can't answer that because I don't what someone's definiton of "good" is. But odds can be compared to those in other states. For example, Oregon also has a total of 82 sheep tags, but sets aside their quota for NR sheep tags in specific hunts - which was 6 in 2006. The 2006 chances for their 1 NR Rocky Mt tag were 1:617 or 0.16%. Chances for the 5 NR California tags in Oregon ranged from 0.11% to 0.52%. So in general, chances are better in Idaho. Montana also has a non-resident quota (up to maximum, by hunt) for sheep permits and residents and NR compete for the same permits (but NRs are excluded from applying for many hunts). Maximum chances of drawing the 8 ram tags by hunt in MT (calculated similar to the above for Idaho) averaged 0.34% in 2005 and ran from 0.08% to 1.1%. Again, I would say those chances are worse than Idaho. I believe these odds comparisons are similar across several other states with sheep.

There are of course trade-offs. Idaho does require a more costly non-refundable license ($141.50) to apply than Oregon ($76.50) or Montana ($10 conservation license). Whether one considers the Idaho odds "good," or worth the additional cost are a matter of personal choice.

I hope this info helps clarify the Idaho draw system.

Tom Keegan
Salmon Region Wildlife Manager

 

[boneaddict]

Good information Tom

 

[JRABQ]

Huntin100,

I agree with your analysis for the most part, but I would disagree that Idaho is "unfair" or "deceiving" applicants. The way the draw is set up does make it hard to calculate odds (as discussed here), but the numbers are published, ID never said the odds were "good".

If anyone is at fault it is services like Huntin Fool who are hyping the odds as being much better than they really are. Are they doing this on purpose, or just not realizing they are making an error? Don't know, but supect it's the latter.

Regarding Keegans comments above, after considering unit 11 (and a couple of other high demand units) there are usually 4-5 tags drawn by ~500 applicants spread over the "lesser" units, which is somewhere in the 1% odds range (nothing close to 10%). Is a 1% chance worth $150. I'm not sure, but I've applied for 6 years and will probably keep doing it. When you compare it to some raffle tickets ($25 for 1 in 1500 chance), it's not a bad deal, just not the 5-10% chance some would lead you to believe.

Anyway, thanks for bringing this issue up again, maybe it will start to sink it with some people.

JR

 

[3bigelkid]

TOM,

Are the resident elk/deer/ant draws similar? By similar, I mean, do they place everyone in one hat to draw against each other instead of drawing against just the folks that put in for the same unit as they did? This would dramaticlly affect the way I put in for my tags! Thanks in advance for the info.
Jake

 

[huntin100]

Tom, Thanks for your info. I did'nt think about unit 11 that way. So instead of .5% to draw other units it is more like 1%. Many Hunting services are giving out wrong info. Also, I have heard from Idaho Fish and Game employees say, by limiting applications to either sheep,Goat,Moose, or apply for elk,deer, and antelope, it greatly improves one odds in the drawings. It can't get much worse than 1%. Since a non resident has to pay $141.50 for a license to apply for hunts. Has there been any talk about changing to a straight 5-7% of the tags will go to non resident hunters?? It is very discouraging to find out the real odds of drawing a sheep,or goat tag with the expensive price to purchase a license. I will contact a few license application services and tell them to print the real odds. Thanks for your honesty and information. You have always been helpful on your replys.

 

[spotnstalkID]

huntin100,

You say "I have heard from Idaho Fish and Game employees say, by limiting applications to either sheep,Goat,Moose, or apply for elk,deer, and antelope, it greatly improves one odds in the drawings. It can't get much worse than 1%."

It most certainly can. If everybody that applies for (for example) Sheep, is allowed to apply for moose, goat and all the others as well, you would have a heck of a lot LESS chance at drawing any of them than you do now by limiting applicants to one species.

Nowhere does it say that Idaho gaurantees 10% of the tags go to NR hunters. Only that NR's are limited to "up to" 10% of tags. I don't see much deception here. And if somebody wants to go out and hire some hunting service to apply for them, and take their word on how "good" the odds are in Idaho, I guess that is what they get for not doing the research themselves. All one has to do is look at the regs and spend a few minutes adding up numbers to see what the odds are. Sure, it sucks if somebody is telling a client that the odds are better than what they are, but whos fault is it in the end for applying without doing the research?

Jaxon

 

[huntin100]

Jaxon, My point is that alot of people see up to 10% goes to Non residents. Many odds are less than 10%. But few realize it is only 1% OR less for Sheep. I put in for hunts in 8 states. I'm familier with Arizona, Nevada,New Mexico,Utah, Colorado,Wyoming,Montana, and Idaho regulations. Arizona and Nevada is expensive, but has a point system for all species. Idaho is Very expensive for a very slim chance of drawing one, either sheep,goat,moose or apply for elk,deer,or antelope IMO. I do most of my research myself. I can't afford to use an application service. I look at these services to gather helpful information. Good luck in the draws. Greg

 

[shelbys]

huntin100, I think you are WRONG

huntin100,

I've hunted in Idaho my entire life. To say they do the draws differently now than they did a few ago is a crazy statement. Every state tweaks their draw procedures a bit from year to year.

You were implying that the State of Idaho has changed the rules to discriminate against Non-Residents. The draw process is the same today as it has been for years. The only difference I believe is that you have to now pay up front for once in a lifetime critters.

Moose, Bighorn Sheep, Mountain Goat
(Controlled Hunt Only includes permit, tag,
and application fees) .............................................. $1,765.75

The draw process has not changed. Non-Residents can draw "UP TO" 10% of the tags. That doesn't guarantee them anything however.

Look at Moose Hunt 3076 last year. 10 permits were offered, 31 applicants. Of those, there was 1 non-resident applicant and he drew a tag. So in that unit, Non-Residents were 100%. The other 9 tags went to Residents, which ended up being 9/30 for right around a 30% success rate.

This just shows that people can make numbers support about any argument.

My honest opinion is that if you are so upset about Idaho's policies and procedures, maybe you shouldn't apply there. That would help my odds, even if just by a fraction in the years to come.

 

[boneaddict]

RE: huntin100, I think you are WRONG

Without even getting out my calculator, I can almost guarantee that your odds aren't better in Arizona or Nevada for sheep than for Idaho, even with points, unless you have been at it for the max time frame. Even with max points, I'm not sure thats any better.

 

[spotnstalkID]

I see what you are saying from a non-res standpoint. And I wasn't trying to come across as though I was pointing fingers at you specifically about the whole hiring an application service. On that, I was just talking about applicants in general.

Those issues are the reason that the odds are as good as they are. If Idaho offered pref/bonus points, MANY more people would apply, bringing the odds down drastically from what they are now. That is why I like the way the system is setup as it is. The less people applying the better IMO, but in the end, resident or non-res, it all comes down to the luck of the draw.

Good luck to you as well. I hope you pull one of those tags someday!

Jaxon

 

[huntin100]

RE: huntin100, I think you are WRONG

Shelby, The draw was changed a few years ago some what. It used to be not more than 10% of non residents could draw per unit. Now it's not more than 10% of non res could per unit and the total number of permits.

Your Moose odds example is wrong. They don't draw per unit. They do a draw with res and non res combined. If the 10% quota was already met by non residents. Non res applicants after the 10% quota would have ZERO percent chance of drawing. The unit 3076 last year must have come up prior to the 10% cap on non res. He was lucky to draw. NO MOOSE HUNT had a greater than 10% chance of drawing. I have not looked at Moose odds. The fish and game office will tell you this as well. Good luck.

 

[BUGLELK]

Huntin100,

You are looking at the unit odds, and that is not possible to determine in Idaho. You are a number in the system, along with every other person who applies for that species. The computer selects the first hunter, looks at his 1st choice, and gives him the tag. It then selects the 2nd hunter, looks at his choice, and if there is a tag available in the unit he selected first, he gets the tag. If there is no tag available, he draws nothing. It is entirely possible for the 2nd guy drawn in the whole draw to not get a tag...It is also entirely possible for the last guy drawn in the entire draw to get a tag. If there are 6 sheep tags available for NR's and the first 6 hunters to be selected are NR's, no other non-resident has a chance. Many other states conduct their draws the exact same way...

Trying to determine the actual odds of a non-resident drawing a specific tag is impossible.

Corey

 

[fowladdict]

I say wahhh!! If you don't like it don't apply.

 

[huntin100]

Corey, I agree with most of your comments. The only way the second person drawn wont get a tag is if the first person was a non resident and they applied for the same unit. If the first 6 hunters drawn are non residents, no other non resident has a chance. Maybe. If the first 6 non res drawn, applied for unit 11, (612 applied last year) then the first would get the tag and the other five would not draw. The next 5 non res would draw if the unit they applied did not already have a non res that drew a head of them. You can be close to figuring out draw odds in Idaho since there are no bonus points, or squared points, or weighted points. If you read Salmon fish and game post he explained it. Last year about .5% to 1% chance of drawing. Some other states have specific non res tags. ie. Wyoming 25% of tags go to non residents, Colorado has non resident tags. New Mexico res and non res have equal chances to draw. Good luck in the draws.

 

[ElmerFudd]

1% true draw odds on sheep are good draw odds. Sucks, but you have to be lucky or spend big $$$ to hunt sheep. Before the 10% cap was in place, about 20-25% of the tags were drawn by nonresidents. The 10% cap probabally did not change odds on the tougher draws much, but killed odds on the easier to draw units. Overall draw odds were about cut in half, but odds are that the 10% nonresident cap will kick in well before a nonresident draws one of the easier to draw units.

 

[Outdoordan]

I would just like to point out that in AZ and in NV you must also buy the hunting license, atleast if you are to get preference points, if you don't have preference points in those states your odds are EXTREMELY bad. Atleast in Idaho with no preference points you have the possibility of drawing, and that is refreshing is somebody new was to get in the game.

 

[Salmonfg]

Jake, For deer, elk, and pronghorn, applicants are grouped by species and then by hunt number, so deer applicants are "competing" against other deer applicants for the same hunt.

Huntin100, "Has there been any talk about changing to a straight 5-7% of the tags will go to non resident hunters?? It is very discouraging to find out the real odds of drawing a sheep, or goat tag with the expensive price to purchase a license."
No, I haven't heard any discussion about changing the current draw structure. I spend a lot of time researching draw odds, etc. in other states, so understand your frustration. Sometimes it takes a fair amount of research to figure out the real story for the draw process and statistics (like the Utah example I used in the "Idaho Draw Process" post a few weeks ago there are only 2 Utah pronghorn hunts where a party of 2 can draw based on bonus points).

I think the other questions regarding my previous post and the Idaho draw were addressed by others. A recap:

1. Yes, the moose, sheep, goat draw was altered in 2003; FROM no more than 10% NR per hunt (or no more than 1/hunt when less than 10 tags) TO no more than 10% of tags for the species or the hunt AND no more than 1/hunt when less than 10 tags.

2. There may be some confusion between the 10% quota and chances of drawing a permit. Sticking with Rocky Mt sheep, NRs can potentially between 0 and 6 tags (By sheer numbers, compared to residents, NRs usually do draw 6 - the full 10%). This 10% has nothing to do with chances of drawing being 10%. Those chances are determined strictly by the number of applicants. Overall draw odds for Rocky sheep in Idaho have changed dramatically in the last 7-8 years - the number of total applicants in 2000 was "only" 852, last year there were 1,847, just shy of 1,000 new applicants in 8 years. The bulk of the increase has been NRs and they're now accounting for 2/3 of applicants. Bottom line is chances of drawing have declined quite a bit. Draws for the other species are more balanced then sheep, so even though exact odds calculations aren't possible, the approximations are much closer.

3. The limitation of only 1 application if you apply for M, S, or G does mean that the draw odds are better than they would be if everyone could apply for multiple species, particularly for Idaho residents.

Tom Keegan
Salmon Region Wildlife Manager

 

[huntin100]

Tom, Thanks for your reply. You have been helpful. My main beef is that many sportmen have been told how Idaho has good draw odds for sheep. That is why the increase of 1,000 non res applications over the past 8 years. Utah has poor odds also. They do not charge you $141.00 for a slim chance. They charged you 5 dollars and give you a bonus point. This is going to change to about 60-70 dollars from what I have heard starting in 2008. Arizona and Nevada has expensive licenses, however you can apply for several animals and you get points that give you a improved chance in the future. Wyoming is expensive now at 100 dollars a year. Montana 20 dollars for a point and slim chance. New Mexico no point system, no expensive license to purchase, however, over $3,100 for a tag. Colorado is reasonable. No expensive license to buy. IDAHO is very expensive for what SLIM chance, (often 1%)of a non res drawing a tag. It would be nice if some things changed in the future. Colorado, Wyoming, Nevada, has a few tags just for non res. It is possible for NO non res to draw in Idaho.

1,847 applicants times $141.50 dollars, equals $261,350. For up to 6 non res permits. Wondering if this is the main reason for no change? I'm not blaming you Tom. Most non res get get an unfair deal. I just hoping things may improve in the future, and ALL states can be reasonable. Thanks, Greg

 

[huntjock]

You hit the nail on the head re: point systems. The fairest system is a no point system. I got in on some point draws early, which was great, but my sons are screwed.

 

[WYhunter]

When you get down to it most states have gone into the lottery business with these licenses draws as a way to raise revenue. As you pointed out, it is a pretty good chunk of cash. And the preference system in some states insures that my son will never hunt there for the prized tags. (Not much of a way to get the next generation excited about hunting.)I am not so much bothered with the way Idaho represents the draw odds as I am with the way businesses like Carter's Hunting Fool magazine misrepresents the odds and encourages you to hire them to help you draw because the odds are so wonderful. Page 20 of their March magazine lists the odds for sheep area 11 as "1 in 345" for 2006 and they indicate the worst odds of any other unit was 1 out of 47. The fine print else where does disclose that this is not the true draw odds that they still are making many people believe the odds are alot better than they are. I took statistics way back in college and I know the true odds in Idaho takes into account all those residents I am competing with as well as all those non-residents and the odds are very very low. It is a lottery ticket.

 

[goldhunter]

I understood the 10 percent cap for NR's, however I didn't realize the various units were lumped into one draw. Those 27 units with published "good odds" really are nothing of the sort.

Most years I couldn't justify the hunting license fee for these kind of odds. The only time I would apply in ID would be if I was planning another over the counter hunt in the State that year.

The reason it works for me in AZ is that I know that with points I will eventually draw the lower demand species(elk and deer). In fact I drew an elk tag this year.

 

[huntin100]

Gold, You were thought just like me and 95% of the other non res hunters. I got my Eastmans Journal yesterday. It is an Annual Sheep Section. On page 87 Doug Scott wrote how the Idaho draw is conducted. Actual draw odds are terrible for non residents, considering the $141.50 license purchase. I hope NON RESIDENTS understand the way the draw is done and the real ODDS. Hopefully, Idaho will change things in the future or LOOSE a lot of money from non residents, as more and more learn how poor their odds are. 141.50 plus application fee for one percent chance of drawing, ANY SHEEP unit. Good luck