interpreting draw odds info

[seven]

LAST EDITED ON Jan-09-14 AT 11:13AM (MST)[p]So I've got a question on how to interpret the draw odds from last year that are posted online. In the column where it lists # of pref points you can see something like the following:

8
<8
7
<7
6
<6
5
<5
4
<4
3
<3
2
<2
1
<1
<=0

What is the difference between, say, having <3 pp's (I'm interpreting this as meaning 'less than 3'; is that right?), and 2 pp's? Also in the specific unit I'm looking at right now it says that the 'first choice success odds' with 4 pp's was 100% (with 52 first choice applicants), <4 pp's was 100% last year (with 61 first choice applicatns), but right under that there is a row for 3 pp's, and the 'first choice success odds' say 48.40% (with 219 first choice applicants). What is the difference here and why???

 

[30Hart]

LAST EDITED ON Jan-09-14 AT 12:06PM (MST)[p]Wyoming averages preference points for people putting in as a group...a 3 and 4 PP holder have 3.5 in the drawing.

 

[TOPGUN]

As 30Hart mentioned, the reason for the <3 (less than) and >3 (more than) is because WY averages a groups PPs and doesn't round up or down. Therefore, when they do the draw it only takes a fraction of a PP to get drawn before a person with a lesser fraction. If group applications weren't allowed, it would be done a full PP per person without those "in between" numbers that can confuse some folks. I hosted another member from Idaho and went in the antelope draw two years ago as a party and our average was 3.5PPs (he had 5 and I had 2). Everyone down through us was drawn, while those that only had 3 PPs had less than a 100% success rate. If I had gone in by myself, it would have taken at least 2 more years to draw the tag if the odds stayed the same.

 

[seven]

LAST EDITED ON Jan-09-14 AT 11:51AM (MST)[p]Thanks for the replies guys. As I applied solo this year, I don't need to worry about any of the <(insert # here) entries, right?

 

[Zeke]

Correct, as long as you're greater than the "less than" group and your PP will get you drawn!
Zeke

 

[TOPGUN]

LAST EDITED ON Jan-09-14 AT 01:35PM (MST)[p]Yep, as long as the less thans are below your full PP total you'll get drawn before them. It will depend if you have a 100% success rate in your pool on how many tags are issued and how many apply that have more or the same number of PPs as you do.

 

[Zeke]

Just when a guy thinks it's a sure thing...right Topgun?
I had a sure thing last year and here I sit with all my points and no tag yet. Maybe this year!
There are no "sure things" when it comes to drawing a tag unless you're clearly in a points group that will allow you to draw, but even then it depends on the tags #'s the F&G allows in the unit and number of applicants.
Again, good luck.
Zeke

 

[chipc]

Yeah, seems like there were a lot of guys who were disapointed in the draw last year. Quota changes ( mostly decreases) and advice giving magazines have caused a lot more variability in draw odds from year to year. GOOD LUCK. Chip

 

[TOPGUN]

LAST EDITED ON Jan-09-14 AT 06:35PM (MST)[p]You're right on that Zeke! I went in with a member that had max deer PPs that has some health issues thinking we could draw with our average based on 2012 and I could then help him on the hunt in the unit I'm familiar with. The G&F dropped 25 tags from the unit total after we applied and rather than withdraw I told him to cross his fingers because I figured we'd be right near the cut line. Sure enough, we went home empty handed when the results came out when I thought originally that it was a 100% guaranteed hunt waiting to happen! You just never know until you see Successful on your account.

 

[jims]

Another question that might arise is if in a party application what happens if there is only 1 tag remaining and there are 2 people pooled together? Does the 1 guy in the party draw and the other not, both guys draw, or both guys don't draw?

There are a number of units where only 1 special draw tag is issued. What happens if there are 2 applicants pooled together with the max pref pts required to draw?

 

[Zeke]

If there's only 1 tag available or remaining in the draw, the group/dual application guys would not get it. The tag would go to an individual/single applicant even it he had lower points. The G&F won't start issuing more tags just because of bonus points or group apps.

In a party application they either both draw or both don't.

Zeke

 

[REDDOG]

LAST EDITED ON Jan-10-14 AT 10:45AM (MST)[p]Wyoming will issue the extra tag to party apps..Happens all the time.

But like already stated, you all draw or none draw.

 

[TOPGUN]

LAST EDITED ON Jan-10-14 AT 01:20PM (MST)[p]>Wyoming will issue the extra tag
>to party apps..Happens all the
>time.
>
>But like already stated, you all
>draw or none draw.


***That is absolutely correct for the deer, elk, and antelope draws, but not for any of the others like sheep. A party application is considered as one person and if that number gets drawn they all get a tag even if there is only one in the draw pool or one left when it gets down to their pool. The "all or none" only applies if the party application doesn't get drawn. If it does get drawn, everybody goes hunting. That may be the way Zeke is saying it is done in Utah and he may have forgotten he's in the Wyoming Forum!

 

[Zeke]

Well Hell! I was 50% correct. That's better than when I argue with my wife! LOL

Keep on truckin' guys.
Zeke