Christian, your post is identical to what I was thinking a few days ago. I contimplate the reasons why odds are better for that MUZZ hunt and compare it with similar hunts. IMO the negatives are the hunt begins right after the general hunt, and the rut is just barely starting. Probably would have to have some cold weather to kick the rut up a bit for this hunt. Muzzleloaders don't shoot as far as rifles for example, you may see one really good buck all season and it may be in rifle range, but just out of muzzleloader range. This hunt does have a good upside if the conditions are right also. Being that the hunt occurs before the late rifle hunt, a good snow and you'll have first choice at a buck before the late rifle hunters are able to hunt. Looks like the hunt will be in 12B West this year and not 12A East (which was mentioned). IMO the 12B West hunt will be more dependent on weather than the 12A East hunt. There's still a ton of deer in 12B West, and with cold weather/Snow, the big bucks will enter Arizona from Utah. This would greatly increase your odds at a good buck and it would definately be a top notch tag worth applying for! Hope you gather enough info to help you on your decision, and best of luck in the draw!