LAST EDITED ON Mar-05-08 AT 10:26PM (MST)[p]Hayden,
Looks like 62.5% draw odds for NR unguided, 100% guided and resident. Great 3rd choice if you wanna go huntin. I'm putting in for a rifle hunt with same dates for better draw odds and a less popular unit as last choice cuz I WANNA GO HUNTIN IN NM!!
Adding up all 3 doesn't give you true odds either. It's impossible to calculate true odds in states where they look at all choices and rank applications not choices. Say a guy draws his 1st choice, his 2nd/3rd choices are still listed and listed in the statistics. In reality that application wasn't in the hat for his 2nd/3rd choice, thus throwing off the odds. Due to all the mixing and matching of 1st, 2nd, 3rd choices and which ones are drawn here and there, it's impossible to calculate it.
LAST EDITED ON Mar-06-08 AT 10:30PM (MST)[p]LAST EDITED ON Mar-06-08 AT 10:26?PM (MST)
I believe the 1st bull hunt should of been 1.98% but I suck at math ....9 tags for NR non guided were issued for the first bull hunt 454 total nr non guided put in. I never said I was good at math but you tell me what the odds for the first hunt for a nr non guide hunter is. I did screw up on the 2nd bull hunt I am coming up with 9.25% 10 tags for 108 entries... Once again I suck at math. Tell me if I am wrong because I am not smart.
That looks right if you added up all 3 choices. NM is tough since you can't look at true odds. Some people like to only use 1st choice, some use all 3... Either way, if you're consistent, you can use it as a "demand index" to see which units make it on the most applications