grizzmoose
Very Active Member
- Messages
- 1,023
Hi Guys,
With the release of the expo odds, I thought Id try to put some perspective on what the odds mean. Before I do that, let me state that I am not a statistical expert, though the statistics in this case are fairly simple. I only looked at the deer and elk odds considering that they are the most popular species.
The deer tag with the best chance of winning is a Book Cliffs Archery tag, which is .16%
The elk tag with the best chance of winning is the Central Nebo Muzz hunt at .24%.
The average chance of winning a deer tag is .09% or 1 in 1175.
The average chance of winning an elk tag is also .09 or 1 in 1175.
Now here are some more interesting statistics. We all know that there has been a history of people winning a tag in consecutive years. I also recall a person who won both a deer tag and an elk tag in the same year. People in here kept saying how statistically impossible that is. Say a person wins the "easiest" deer and elk tag in the same year. That chances of that happening are .00039 percent possible. That equals 1 out of about 258000.
The average chance of getting a consecutive deer and/or elk tags is about 1 out of 1,184,000.
And just to make it fun, the following things are more likely to happen to you than drawing consecutive deer and/or elk tags:
Becoming a pro athlete
Getting a royal flush in the first 5 cards
Dying from a terrorist attack
Dying in an airplane crash
Getting injured on a toilet
Your kid dying in a car wreck
Being declared dead by a Social Security data mistake
Being murdered
Dying in a plane crash
Dying from an asteroid hitting the earth in the next 100 years
Hope you enjoyed the read.
(P.S. I actually do have somewhat of a life.)
With the release of the expo odds, I thought Id try to put some perspective on what the odds mean. Before I do that, let me state that I am not a statistical expert, though the statistics in this case are fairly simple. I only looked at the deer and elk odds considering that they are the most popular species.
The deer tag with the best chance of winning is a Book Cliffs Archery tag, which is .16%
The elk tag with the best chance of winning is the Central Nebo Muzz hunt at .24%.
The average chance of winning a deer tag is .09% or 1 in 1175.
The average chance of winning an elk tag is also .09 or 1 in 1175.
Now here are some more interesting statistics. We all know that there has been a history of people winning a tag in consecutive years. I also recall a person who won both a deer tag and an elk tag in the same year. People in here kept saying how statistically impossible that is. Say a person wins the "easiest" deer and elk tag in the same year. That chances of that happening are .00039 percent possible. That equals 1 out of about 258000.
The average chance of getting a consecutive deer and/or elk tags is about 1 out of 1,184,000.
And just to make it fun, the following things are more likely to happen to you than drawing consecutive deer and/or elk tags:
Becoming a pro athlete
Getting a royal flush in the first 5 cards
Dying from a terrorist attack
Dying in an airplane crash
Getting injured on a toilet
Your kid dying in a car wreck
Being declared dead by a Social Security data mistake
Being murdered
Dying in a plane crash
Dying from an asteroid hitting the earth in the next 100 years
Hope you enjoyed the read.
(P.S. I actually do have somewhat of a life.)
