Unit 61
- Thread starter eastside1
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txhunter58
Long Time Member
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Looks like it took 19 points to draw for a nonresident.
txhunter58
venor, ergo sum (I hunt, therefore I am)
txhunter58
venor, ergo sum (I hunt, therefore I am)
Paul_Crawford
Long Time Member
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Deer or elk?
sticksender
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If you're talking EM06101R, and you had 15 pp going into the 2013 draw, that means you're 4 point levels behind the group that is just starting to draw the tag. Among those who went into the draw with 4 pp more than you (those with 19 pp), about half drew.
A good rule of thumb for NR point creep in the highest-demand units for elk, is to take the number of points you're behind (in your case 4 points) and multiply by 6. This will give you the approximate number of years you need to wait to be in the point pool that is a guaranteed draw. So you're talking roughly 20-25 years from now, assuming no major increase in tags, no major drop in interest, and no more tag grabs by landowners.
Sadly, this doesn't even factor in next year's slashing of the public tag allocation caused by the latest landowner tag grab. They'll be taking 6 more of the public's tags in that hunt next year, and every year thereafter. Because of that you might need to boost the above multiplier to 7 or a little more.
A good rule of thumb for NR point creep in the highest-demand units for elk, is to take the number of points you're behind (in your case 4 points) and multiply by 6. This will give you the approximate number of years you need to wait to be in the point pool that is a guaranteed draw. So you're talking roughly 20-25 years from now, assuming no major increase in tags, no major drop in interest, and no more tag grabs by landowners.
Sadly, this doesn't even factor in next year's slashing of the public tag allocation caused by the latest landowner tag grab. They'll be taking 6 more of the public's tags in that hunt next year, and every year thereafter. Because of that you might need to boost the above multiplier to 7 or a little more.
sticksender
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LAST EDITED ON Jun-05-13 AT 03:22PM (MST)[p]LAST EDITED ON Jun-05-13 AT 03:20?PM (MST)
You guys with lots of points who are 2 or 3 points away from drawing I don't envy you. It's easy to lull yourself into the false hope that you're only a couple or three years away from drawing that coveted tag. Unfortunately the cold reality of the draw stats show this isn't the case at all. Re-read my post above....that's your reality.
The details:
2006 was the first year for the new 5-year season structure cycle and a new 80/20 split was imposed on this hunt. Previously NR got up to 35% of the allocation. In 2005 a NR needed 11 pp to guarantee draw on this hunt. But then in 2006 a NR needed 13 points to guarantee drawing the same tag. A 2-point "leap", not just "creep", and caused by the NR tag cutback.
But then fast forward to now, 2013, and a NR needed 20 points to guarantee drawing this hunt. So SEVEN years have passed, and points needed to guarantee draw is now SEVEN points higher. Even in spite of the two years ('07 and '13) in which the total tag allocation was actually increased, boosting the NR tag allocation from 18 to 22 in 2007 and to 25 in 2013. But neither of those helped much. So unless you can figure out a way to gain more than 1 pp per year, it's going to be a VERY LONG TIME to ever catch up.
Worse yet, as mentioned above, beginning in 2014 tag allocation will suffer another hit as the new landowner tag bill takes effect. Landowner vouchers are being increased, and they're being taken from the public allocation. Point creep then only gets worse, for both res & NR.
All it boils down to is that anyone applying for limited elk hunts in Colorado needs to look realistically at the point creep issue, then be honest with your self and make your plans accordingly. Even if you're only 3 points back, you're decades away from drawing. If you're middle-aged and 5 or 10 points back, you won't live long enough to draw any of the highest-demand elk hunts in Colorado as a NR.
You guys with lots of points who are 2 or 3 points away from drawing I don't envy you. It's easy to lull yourself into the false hope that you're only a couple or three years away from drawing that coveted tag. Unfortunately the cold reality of the draw stats show this isn't the case at all. Re-read my post above....that's your reality.
The details:
2006 was the first year for the new 5-year season structure cycle and a new 80/20 split was imposed on this hunt. Previously NR got up to 35% of the allocation. In 2005 a NR needed 11 pp to guarantee draw on this hunt. But then in 2006 a NR needed 13 points to guarantee drawing the same tag. A 2-point "leap", not just "creep", and caused by the NR tag cutback.
But then fast forward to now, 2013, and a NR needed 20 points to guarantee drawing this hunt. So SEVEN years have passed, and points needed to guarantee draw is now SEVEN points higher. Even in spite of the two years ('07 and '13) in which the total tag allocation was actually increased, boosting the NR tag allocation from 18 to 22 in 2007 and to 25 in 2013. But neither of those helped much. So unless you can figure out a way to gain more than 1 pp per year, it's going to be a VERY LONG TIME to ever catch up.
Worse yet, as mentioned above, beginning in 2014 tag allocation will suffer another hit as the new landowner tag bill takes effect. Landowner vouchers are being increased, and they're being taken from the public allocation. Point creep then only gets worse, for both res & NR.
All it boils down to is that anyone applying for limited elk hunts in Colorado needs to look realistically at the point creep issue, then be honest with your self and make your plans accordingly. Even if you're only 3 points back, you're decades away from drawing. If you're middle-aged and 5 or 10 points back, you won't live long enough to draw any of the highest-demand elk hunts in Colorado as a NR.
rmanwill
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We all know the point creep and the draw odds. Nothing is set in stone. Yes it go's up every year, but people with higher points keep going down as they draw so there is no hard and fast rule or table. What really hurt NR odds in my opinion is when they made all of the ranching tags residence only. This put all the non residence people into a very small number of quility units.
I wish I was not in the 18 point pool and hunting general muzzleloader every three or four years in Colorado, but it is what it is and I won't just throw the points in the wind.
Your figures would say I will not draw for 12 years. My figures is closer to three years (2016). Hope mine is closer.
No I won't hold my breath, but I will make the best of the hunt when I draw and then hunt every couple years on lesser units.
Heck I have 20 points in my home state of Utah and still am waiting, but very close (within two years). Hunt of a life time without paying half of my yearly salary for the hunt.
I wish I was not in the 18 point pool and hunting general muzzleloader every three or four years in Colorado, but it is what it is and I won't just throw the points in the wind.
Your figures would say I will not draw for 12 years. My figures is closer to three years (2016). Hope mine is closer.
No I won't hold my breath, but I will make the best of the hunt when I draw and then hunt every couple years on lesser units.
Heck I have 20 points in my home state of Utah and still am waiting, but very close (within two years). Hunt of a life time without paying half of my yearly salary for the hunt.
sticksender
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LAST EDITED ON Jun-05-13 AT 04:18PM (MST)[p]LAST EDITED ON Jun-05-13 AT 04:17?PM (MST)
That's sorta the heart of issue really...everyone hoping against hope that the situation will get better, when in reality it continues to get worse. Everybody's saving points and only applying for the highest-demand hunts. There are nearly 5000 NR's holding 15 or more PP's. And over 100,000 NR in the draw each year.
At least the residents will always have some hope to draw one of the highest-demand tags in the random (hybrid) draw.
Manwill you're in way better shape than a lot us with your high point total. Good luck I hope you eventually get the elk tag you're after.
That's sorta the heart of issue really...everyone hoping against hope that the situation will get better, when in reality it continues to get worse. Everybody's saving points and only applying for the highest-demand hunts. There are nearly 5000 NR's holding 15 or more PP's. And over 100,000 NR in the draw each year.
At least the residents will always have some hope to draw one of the highest-demand tags in the random (hybrid) draw.
Manwill you're in way better shape than a lot us with your high point total. Good luck I hope you eventually get the elk tag you're after.
rmanwill
Long Time Member
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Thanks sticksender. My boy will be hunting unit 61 this year for deer and I should be hunting it next year. Great scouting for the elk someday.
In my situation I can currently put in and draw unit #61 second, third or fouth season and hunt elk. After the next two years hunting deer in #61 if the point game continues that is a great option with a longer hunt.
My intention is to get out of the high point game and start drawing deer and elk every other year rotating species (deer one year and then two years later elk and then two years later deer again and so on). That way I will be hunting Colorado every other year. There is some great hunts to be had for both deer and elk with only two or three points.
In my situation I can currently put in and draw unit #61 second, third or fouth season and hunt elk. After the next two years hunting deer in #61 if the point game continues that is a great option with a longer hunt.
My intention is to get out of the high point game and start drawing deer and elk every other year rotating species (deer one year and then two years later elk and then two years later deer again and so on). That way I will be hunting Colorado every other year. There is some great hunts to be had for both deer and elk with only two or three points.
Magicman
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The creep is the reason that I finally bit the bullet and drew a a Unit 61, 2nd rifle bull tag last year. I was 69 years old with 16 PP's and could never live long enough to draw a 1st rifle hunt.
I made a successful hunt, killed a 6X6 bull, and am now very happy that I will never chase PP's again.
This year, I will be accompanying my Son who drew a Unit 49 1st rifle bull tag which puts him out of the PP chase/creep.
I made a successful hunt, killed a 6X6 bull, and am now very happy that I will never chase PP's again.
This year, I will be accompanying my Son who drew a Unit 49 1st rifle bull tag which puts him out of the PP chase/creep.
Phantom Hunter
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Magicman, I am hoping to do what you did, that is burn my points (15 after this years draw) in a year or two for a second season unit 61 tag. I have hunted 61 twice in years past when I knew less about elk hunting than I do now. Only took 2 points back then. Really love the country but I am getting too old to chase points much longer.
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