I just received the official wonderful news in the mail yesterday that Wyoming was raising their non-resident sheep points to $100.00. I need some help since I am not a statistician. I currently have 6 bonus points. With all of the variables to consider does anyone out there have any idea how long it will take me to draw. I'm pretty sure they have just priced me out of the game. Thank you very much. Your time is greatly appreciated. Panhandle.
Wyoming Sheep Odds ?
- Thread starter Panhandle
- Start date
COBUK
Active Member
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Panhandle,
Check out this old thread, start at around post #19, it tells it like it is:
http://www.monstermuleys.info/dcforum/DCForumID8/1649.html
Check out this old thread, start at around post #19, it tells it like it is:
http://www.monstermuleys.info/dcforum/DCForumID8/1649.html
COBUK - Thank you for your quick reply. It is very much appreciated. I'm definently "OUT" for sheep in Wyoming. Just out of curiousity, if you are an odds man and follow the moose game like you do the sheep, what are my odds of drawing unit #1 for moose in Wyoming with 5 preference points as a non-resident. If you don't know do you know of any way I can find out this information. The $75.00 price tag for a moose point isn't any easier to swallow than the sheep point for a $100.00. Thanks again to all who respond. Sincerely - Panhandle-
RamDreamer
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Panhandle -
You can look up the draw odds on the Wyoming Game and Fish website at: http://gf.state.wy.us/wildlife/hunting/stats/demand/index.asp?yr=2005&pt=true
You can look up the draw odds on the Wyoming Game and Fish website at: http://gf.state.wy.us/wildlife/hunting/stats/demand/index.asp?yr=2005&pt=true
DonVathome
Very Active Member
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I did the math (I have 6 points for sheep) assuming the average (3%) of guys drop out each year, others draw a tag, and 1/2 at or above 6 points drop out because of the new costs I should reach the top of the pool in 20 years or so, at that point I will be at the top and in with TONS of other guys, also, better units will still be out of reach - most likely those in the wilderness where I need a guide will be the only hunts I would then have a shot at in the max pnt pool, so, assuming they do not cut NR tags (I bet they do) I am dropping $100 a year in the hopes in 20 years I can start competing with 100's of others for max pnts tags that require a guide.
I am going to stay in but I think it is a mistake.
I am going to stay in but I think it is a mistake.
Looks like in 05 128 in the top sheep pool tried to draw, 104 went for the point. 191 are left. I can not believe that anyone in the top pool would go for points only, but almost 1/2? What's up with that? Draw odds are pretty good for that group. Not sure how the $100 point will change this, but I imagine a higher percentage will try to draw. But some more of the top pools cleared last year, if more top points people do not jump into the draw. I think all should clear in 5-10 years. I am at 10, one off the top. Guess I have to stay in. Might even go for a unit that appears to have cleared last year and hope more still go for points only or drop.
RamDreamer
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Elmer,
Some of the folks in that top pool have other financial commitments where they haven't wanted to put in (buying a house, child in college, etc., etc.) but keep accruing the points. Others have other hunts planned and haven't wanted to draw in a particular year.
You're right, it will be very interesting to see what happens in the next year or two. I'm like you, one off the top. Good luck!
Some of the folks in that top pool have other financial commitments where they haven't wanted to put in (buying a house, child in college, etc., etc.) but keep accruing the points. Others have other hunts planned and haven't wanted to draw in a particular year.
You're right, it will be very interesting to see what happens in the next year or two. I'm like you, one off the top. Good luck!
That might all be true, but with the way things change, I would want to get the tag ASAP. Prices increase. Rules change. Dieoffs occur. Getting older never helps. You could start the wait for the next tag sooner. You never know, they could even change/abandon the points system. They already did it once, with the 75/25 split. Other states have abandoned points systems. Fronting almost $2K for a few months for a very small chance of drawing makes just paying the $7 for a point make more sense, but if I was in the top pool? Perhaps a few might have something else more important, but nearly 1/2? Good Luck too!
RamDreamer
Active Member
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As you allude to, at $7 for a point it could be easily reasoned to not put in for this, that or some other excuse. At $100 that thought process might need to alter for many.
One really has to question the logic behind the $100 points. A very high percentage of people with 6 or less points are going to drop out because the stats show you will not draw within 20 years. I bet WYDOW will make less money now than if they raised the point cost to $20.
dwalton
Very Active Member
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Cosa,
Since the fee increase was approaching 1,500%, there could be a 90% drop-out rate and Wyoming's G&F would still make more money on points than they did in 2005. In fact, with a high drop-out rate, their profit margin would be even greater because it would take less man hours to manage the points database.
Since the fee increase was approaching 1,500%, there could be a 90% drop-out rate and Wyoming's G&F would still make more money on points than they did in 2005. In fact, with a high drop-out rate, their profit margin would be even greater because it would take less man hours to manage the points database.
K
ktc
Guest
You guys make some good points. I have 6 points for moose and I am staying in. One thing I do not think that has been touched on is how many people continue to just get a point? My point is, it appears I can draw many units with 6 points, even though the 6 point and higher pool has so many people. These people, just like me, are not ponying up the large amount of money to actually apply for a tag. If I would just put 1200 bucks in my envelope with the application I can draw. I bet almost most of the 6 point people are buying a point only. $7 dollars versus $75 versus $1200 will make it interesting this year.
If I were you folks, and you want to hunt sheep or moose, I would stay in and see how it goes. Many will still apply and get points, many will not. I say if you have the money do it. Your place on the totem pole might just go up quicker than you think if you stay in.
Many talk about the future of hunting. It is clear where it is headed and there is not much we can do about it. Pay up or quit is all I can figure. Wouldn't it be nice if the state welfare, homeless, education, and food banks got the private money and attention wildlife gets?
If I were you folks, and you want to hunt sheep or moose, I would stay in and see how it goes. Many will still apply and get points, many will not. I say if you have the money do it. Your place on the totem pole might just go up quicker than you think if you stay in.
Many talk about the future of hunting. It is clear where it is headed and there is not much we can do about it. Pay up or quit is all I can figure. Wouldn't it be nice if the state welfare, homeless, education, and food banks got the private money and attention wildlife gets?
elkantlers
Long Time Member
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I think it would be worth the money to put in a couple of more years just to see what happens.
D
DougW
Guest
ktc:
I hope you are joking. "Pay up or quit is all I can figure." I think you are missing the point. The biggest problem with the future of hunting is the increasing cost.
Get it?
I hope you are joking. "Pay up or quit is all I can figure." I think you are missing the point. The biggest problem with the future of hunting is the increasing cost.
Get it?
K
ktc
Guest
No I don't get it and no I am not joking.
I think you missed my point. Do you see the frustration in these threads? People are giving up. Can you blame them? Some people cannot afford to pay out the money to buy into a system that will not pay dividends later.
The DWR has one of the most sought after commodities around. They have people flashing money and will pay what ever it takes to get a tag. There are more people who will pay big money than they have supply. I guess it is a supply and demand thing. Do I like it? No.
How many times have the state wildlife agencies said, "Gee, ya know what? I feel real bad for those people who cannot afford to buy bonus points or moose and sheep tags so lets drop the price." Have you seen it? I sure haven't. Therefore, I say we are faced with a decision. Pay up or quit. No one is lowering prices, no reduced price like school lunch, and there will be no wildlife welfare tags. Do I like it? No.
I guess people can take the assinine option of begging the mass applicants to boycott. Or, groups can be assembled to fight the agency. Or, we can beg our state representatives. However, I think it has been done before and nothing changes. Do I like it? No.
So Doug, if you come up with a plan to fight this steady annual increase around the west, let me know. In fact, tag and fee increases are on the Utah DWR agenda. We are faced with another decision. Pay the increase or quit. I would like to give you a warm and fuzzy response, but I cannot.
You state; "The biggest problem with the future of hunting is the increasing cost." What do we do about it? You will do what I do. Pay up until it is no longer worth it, then quit. Someone will surely take my place.
I think you missed my point. Do you see the frustration in these threads? People are giving up. Can you blame them? Some people cannot afford to pay out the money to buy into a system that will not pay dividends later.
The DWR has one of the most sought after commodities around. They have people flashing money and will pay what ever it takes to get a tag. There are more people who will pay big money than they have supply. I guess it is a supply and demand thing. Do I like it? No.
How many times have the state wildlife agencies said, "Gee, ya know what? I feel real bad for those people who cannot afford to buy bonus points or moose and sheep tags so lets drop the price." Have you seen it? I sure haven't. Therefore, I say we are faced with a decision. Pay up or quit. No one is lowering prices, no reduced price like school lunch, and there will be no wildlife welfare tags. Do I like it? No.
I guess people can take the assinine option of begging the mass applicants to boycott. Or, groups can be assembled to fight the agency. Or, we can beg our state representatives. However, I think it has been done before and nothing changes. Do I like it? No.
So Doug, if you come up with a plan to fight this steady annual increase around the west, let me know. In fact, tag and fee increases are on the Utah DWR agenda. We are faced with another decision. Pay the increase or quit. I would like to give you a warm and fuzzy response, but I cannot.
You state; "The biggest problem with the future of hunting is the increasing cost." What do we do about it? You will do what I do. Pay up until it is no longer worth it, then quit. Someone will surely take my place.
D
DougW
Guest
I may have missed part of your point...the wonders of chatlines, eh?; I think we agree that the biggest problem is the cost. It's wrong and we will regret this dearly.
But I don't like the word quit. Or assinine. The latter is exactly what these state agencies want you to think. I don't have the answer but there are organizations like TRCP that
agree with us and are doing some things to fight the
increase. SOME of the things other conservations groups
are doing are along the same lines. And these are NOT efforts that are duplicating what happened in Europe before it all ended, as far as I know.
Fortunately for me I love it too much to quit. If there
comes a day when I have to quit eating to afford a good big
game tag, then I suppose I'll hunt does and cows, or
more small game. The state game agencies will no longer
be getting $$thousands through me, but I'll still be hunting. For that matter, if I have to I'll do it without paying any money or "killing" anything, if you catch my drift.
Speaking of the agencies, they may also be regretting all of these increases when they are forced to be more accountable. We do after all live in a democracy, for the most part.
I for one just won't be one to throw up my hands, give up a critically important thing in my life due to $$, without at least trying to fight it. If no one fights it, it surely won't change, right?
But I don't like the word quit. Or assinine. The latter is exactly what these state agencies want you to think. I don't have the answer but there are organizations like TRCP that
agree with us and are doing some things to fight the
increase. SOME of the things other conservations groups
are doing are along the same lines. And these are NOT efforts that are duplicating what happened in Europe before it all ended, as far as I know.
Fortunately for me I love it too much to quit. If there
comes a day when I have to quit eating to afford a good big
game tag, then I suppose I'll hunt does and cows, or
more small game. The state game agencies will no longer
be getting $$thousands through me, but I'll still be hunting. For that matter, if I have to I'll do it without paying any money or "killing" anything, if you catch my drift.
Speaking of the agencies, they may also be regretting all of these increases when they are forced to be more accountable. We do after all live in a democracy, for the most part.
I for one just won't be one to throw up my hands, give up a critically important thing in my life due to $$, without at least trying to fight it. If no one fights it, it surely won't change, right?
K
ktc
Guest
Doug,
I think we agree. My post was only an opinion that sympathizes with the added cost, while encouraging those with points not to give up on their investment.
I have quit many of the things I used to do. Why? Cost versus the end reward. Whitetail tags in Idaho were once a measley $140 for a NR. Now they are $400? I do not know because I quit. 8 whitetails and I quit. Not worth it any more.
I used to apply for NM elk at about $250. Now what are they? $700-$800? Again, I quit. Too much money for a elk when trying for other states elk tags.
How about Arizona? $100 and something dollars for a license to get a point and be in the running. I have no idea what they cost, but I quit.
Nevada. $100 and something dollars to apply and get a point and that does not count the $1000 dollars for a bull elk tag. At $500 I applied. At $1000 I quit. Too much money to tie up when trying to raise a family and pay bills.
I will keep going in Wyoming. Colorado, and Utah. Idaho, Montana, Arizona, Nevada, and New Mexico I quit. I did not want to. I had to. I could work 2 jobs or make more money I guess. I would sure do all of these if money was not an issue. I have nothing against those who can do it. I just feel it is a losing battle and you cannot fight the Governor's office successfully to often.
I will restate my biggest point to this thread. If you are invested in points, keep going. Many, many, many people are just getting points. I would guess few are actually applying. If you can spend the 75 or 100 dollars see how it goes. I doubt highly that these fees will change.
I think we agree. My post was only an opinion that sympathizes with the added cost, while encouraging those with points not to give up on their investment.
I have quit many of the things I used to do. Why? Cost versus the end reward. Whitetail tags in Idaho were once a measley $140 for a NR. Now they are $400? I do not know because I quit. 8 whitetails and I quit. Not worth it any more.
I used to apply for NM elk at about $250. Now what are they? $700-$800? Again, I quit. Too much money for a elk when trying for other states elk tags.
How about Arizona? $100 and something dollars for a license to get a point and be in the running. I have no idea what they cost, but I quit.
Nevada. $100 and something dollars to apply and get a point and that does not count the $1000 dollars for a bull elk tag. At $500 I applied. At $1000 I quit. Too much money to tie up when trying to raise a family and pay bills.
I will keep going in Wyoming. Colorado, and Utah. Idaho, Montana, Arizona, Nevada, and New Mexico I quit. I did not want to. I had to. I could work 2 jobs or make more money I guess. I would sure do all of these if money was not an issue. I have nothing against those who can do it. I just feel it is a losing battle and you cannot fight the Governor's office successfully to often.
I will restate my biggest point to this thread. If you are invested in points, keep going. Many, many, many people are just getting points. I would guess few are actually applying. If you can spend the 75 or 100 dollars see how it goes. I doubt highly that these fees will change.
One thing for sure, lots of people in the 6 or less point pool, who have just been buying points because of the low $7 fee will drop now that the price is not low any more. You will not know how many until the draw stats come out, after the draw. I guess 80% with 6 or less will bail. I am thinking the 6 or less pools will look more like the 7 to ten point pools, carried out farther. But, I doubt more than 10% in the seven or more point status bail. Those guys had to buck up the whole fee for at least the first few years.
DonVathome
Very Active Member
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KTC you should look again at NM still a lot of good hunts at $550 (just went up from about $500) credit card apps too, good odds comapared with elsewhere for a similiar hunt, best part is no points so quitting for a while does not hurt! If you bowhunt lots of good choices for $550 with good odds, WY costs $50 this year for elk, if $$ were an issue I would take NM every time, WY higher priced tags are $900 - more then NM.
Just somthing to think about.
Just somthing to think about.
K
ktc
Guest
Thanks DonV. That is something to think about.
NM surely has better trophy bulls than Colorado and Wyoming. It is tough to keep up with everything. I like your logic. I think I am going in Utah this year? Finally?!?!?
I am definitely staying in the Wyoming moose game while things shake out.
NM surely has better trophy bulls than Colorado and Wyoming. It is tough to keep up with everything. I like your logic. I think I am going in Utah this year? Finally?!?!?
I am definitely staying in the Wyoming moose game while things shake out.
DonVathome
Very Active Member
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Definetly go for Utah, slims odds but $5 and you get a point, no brainer. After a few years if you are willing to look at a variety of seasons you start have a slim shot at a tag.
K
ktc
Guest
Was your advice on Utah for me DonV?
Oh, I will! I am not "quitting" with 13 points. No way!
Oh, I will! I am not "quitting" with 13 points. No way!
N
NDhunter
Guest
Utah doubled their price...it is 10 bucks this year.
DonVathome
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ktc, no for other guy, 13 points, you will not have to wait long!
C
Colville
Guest
Lose your points after 2 yrs
From the NR App booklet: "An applicant may fail to apply for a license or to purchase a preference point for one (1) year wihtout losing accumulated preference points. However if an applicant fails to properly apply for a license or purchase a preference point two consecutive years, the accumulated preference points will be deleted."
The $100 fee is going to drive out a ton of pref points as folks who know they won't be drawn don't buy the license and enter the draw, or fail to buy a pref point.
Either way, waiting around a couple years to see how this washes out, will wash you out like it or not.
From the NR App booklet: "An applicant may fail to apply for a license or to purchase a preference point for one (1) year wihtout losing accumulated preference points. However if an applicant fails to properly apply for a license or purchase a preference point two consecutive years, the accumulated preference points will be deleted."
The $100 fee is going to drive out a ton of pref points as folks who know they won't be drawn don't buy the license and enter the draw, or fail to buy a pref point.
Either way, waiting around a couple years to see how this washes out, will wash you out like it or not.
