Thought on New Mexico draw process

All species applications are put into 1 computer pot. This includes elk, deer, etc and also includes resident, non-resident and outfitter applications (some applications have resident and non-resident hunters on same application). There is 1 "draw" completed which means a random shuffle of all applications.

For example, if there were 300,000 applications received by the Department, all applications are put into 1 computer drawing. Applications are ranked from 1 to 300,000 by the computer, meaning all applications are "shuffled" one time.

The computer looks at applications one at a time and goes through choices 1 through 3. In the case of party apps, there has to be a license available for every person on the application, therefore on an app with a resident and non-resident, there has to be a resident AND a non-resident license available in order for each person to receive a license.
 
GilaCoues1 said:
All species applications are put into 1 computer pot. This includes elk, deer, etc and also includes resident, non-resident and outfitter applications (some applications have resident and non-resident hunters on same application). There is 1 "draw" completed which means a random shuffle of all applications.

For example, if there were 300,000 applications received by the Department, all applications are put into 1 computer drawing. Applications are ranked from 1 to 300,000 by the computer, meaning all applications are "shuffled" one time.

The computer looks at applications one at a time and goes through choices 1 through 3. In the case of party apps, there has to be a license available for every person on the application, therefore on an app with a resident and non-resident, there has to be a resident AND a non-resident license available in order for each person to receive a license.
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Ahhh.... thanks.
 
BioHazrdMan said:
I am confused.... i apply for multiple species. In the drawing NMDGF draws for each species independently from other species correct? So they do a random shuffle for all ELK applications, then another for all deer applications, and so on. Is this correct?
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No sir they do NOT! They shuffle all apps for all species in the same metaphorical deck!
 
BioHazrdMan said:
I am confused.... i apply for multiple species. In the drawing NMDGF draws for each species independently from other species correct? So they do a random shuffle for all ELK applications, then another for all deer applications, and so on. Is this correct?
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I was going to ask the same thing. Not too proud to admit I have always assumed that there was a separate “stack” of applications for each species and they were all done independently of the other…g&f explanation doesn’t state explicitly one way or another, can anyone speak with certainty? Rio?
 
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your application is number one, not you. if it were your elk app, then you would draw your elk license. your other apps are separate and looked at later depending on where they are at in the draw.
 
TerynItUp said:
I was going to ask the same thing. Not to proud to admit I have always assumed that there was a separate “stack” of applications for each species and they were all done independently of the other species.

If this is not true, does it mean that if I am application numero uno that I will draw deer, elk, antelope, oryx, bighorn, barbary, and ibex? My wife would leave me for sure.

I seriously find that hard to believe but after re-reading the g&f explanation on the draw it doesn’t explicitly state one way or another…can anyone speak with certainty? Rio?
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Never mind I got it now. Each species is a separate application in one giant pile.

As long as you understand the basics of how they look at each application and a general understanding of the number of applicants and tags allotted you can piece together a strategy that makes sense, but still not bulletproof. I don’t care how good your “secret strategies” are, if you’re at the bottom of the pile you’re chasing OTC elk in Colorado ?
 
TerynItUp said:
Never mind I got it now. Each species is a separate application in one giant pile.

As long as you understand the basics of how they look at each application and a general understanding of the number of applicants and tags allotted you can piece together a strategy that makes sense, but still not bulletproof. I don’t care how good your “secret strategies” are, if you’re at the bottom of the pile you’re chasing OTC elk in Colorado ?
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Yep!!!
 
NMPaul said:
Bottom line is there are less hunting opportunities and more people hunting.
The narrative that less people hunt pushed by big tech/google/MSM a few years ago is a lie, just like everything else they pump out there.
They are trying to discourage people from hunting and put the belief out there among non hunters that hunting is on the way out.
Just the opposite as facts indicate.
Its not a bad thing, but, it does make it harder to find hunts.

Every state has its positives and negatives. Learn their systems and you will have tags. Piss and moan about it, and you wont.
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Amen
 
ORIONTHEHUNTER said:
I know I was agreeing with you on my earlier post. I was referring to these other guys who keep arguing with you. And also to that fella that thinks there are elk units with a 50% chance of drawing because TopRut says so
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Yes, that was just a reference for anyone who is overthinking how this really works.
 
TerynItUp said:
I don’t care how good your “secret strategies” are, if you’re at the bottom of the pile you’re chasing OTC elk in Colorado ?
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This. To really simplify how all this works, and according to the Game and Fish's narrative on both their website and the proclamation, imagine every application is a person holding a card with the application number on it and on the back of it are listed the species and hunt code choices.

Everyone on draw day shows up with their card at a big convention center. A Draw Master up on a stage has a tumbler bin full of ping pong balls in it with an application number written on it. The Draw Master turns the tumbler for 30 sec, reaches in and calls out an application number. The card holder takes their place behind a big yellow line against a wall. This process is repeated exactly the same until all the balls are called out and each person holding the application card is in the line.

Then, the Draw Master comes up to the first one behind the yellow line, looks at the back of the card and directs them to the meeting room marked with the species on the back of the card. A guy with Ibex on the card goes to the Ibex room, the guy with Deer goes to the deer room and so on (you get the idea).

As the card holder enters the room, a Draw Master Associate looks at the back of the card to identify the hunt codes and directs the cardholder guy to the booth listed as the 1st choice. The Booth Tender hands a green card to the applicant guy and he goes on his merry way. When this booth hands out all the green cards, they drop a red curtain over the booth. As the process is repeated for the entire line formed in the convention hall, Booth Tenders will begin to see applicant cards being directed to them that have them as 2nd and 3rd choices because their 1st choice booth has a red curtain over it.

This process takes place throughout draw day until all the booths have red curtains over them and the meeting room's lights are turned off and the door is shut.

The people that were the last ones called for the ping pong ball assignment and last in the big line are the ones that start looking for landowner tags and making OTC plans in UT, ID, CO, etc...
 
roadrunner said:
Talking solely on how you get your random number assigned relative to all the applications for the species you applied for.



How the Draw Works

Pay particular attention to the last paragraph...



Yes, those "deer applications" will have an affect in what random number you are assigned. The more random numbers that are assigned, the further your chances could be away from being one of those included in the number of applicants that match the total elk licenses that are available across the board. If you are a lucky person year after year, it's because your random number is always good enough to have your application looked at "first".

If you are only competing with elk applicants and your random number were generated from that and there are 30,000 tags available for 60,000 total applications, you have a 1:2 chance your application will be in that upper tier. If there are 230,000 total applications across the board for all species, and your random number is a function of those 230,000, then you have a 1:7.6 chance your application will be in that upper tier.

If you are anywhere in those lower tiers, then better luck next time...
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Your logic is flawed but I'm not sure I can really convince you of that. I've drawn about 12 tags in NM in the last 8 years. If you haven't drawn any NM in 10 years, then I'll stick with my logic.

The only way deer applications get affected by elk applications is that hunters that are mostly applying in NM for elk but also put their "name in the hat" for deer which increased the number of deer applications. There could be 1,000,000,000 elk applicants in NM, the deer odds wouldn't change if the number of deer applicants stayed the same.

You are only competing for a tag against other hunters that applied for that tag as their 1st, 2nd or 3rd choice. If there are only 100 resident hunters that apply for a hunt with 100 resident elk tags, then every one of those hunters will get either that elk tag or another elk tag that they selected for their 1st or 2nd choice. If there are 1000 resident hunters that apply for a hunt with 100 resident elk tags, then those hunters have about a 10% chance of drawing that elk tag. The odds are actually slightly better than 10% because some of those 1000 applicants will draw a different tag they selected as 1st or 2nd choice removing them competition for those 100 elk tags.

If there was 1 tag available for 10 applicants and each applicant was assigned a random number from 1 to 10 then the individuals odds are 10%. If there was 1 tag available for 10 applicants and each applicant was assigned a random number from 1 to 1,000,000,000 then the individuals odds are still 10%.
 
BrianID said:
Your logic is flawed but I'm not sure I can really convince you of that. I've drawn about 12 tags in NM in the last 8 years. If you haven't drawn any NM in 10 years, then I'll stick with my logic.

The only way deer applications get affected by elk applications is that hunters that are mostly applying in NM for elk but also put their "name in the hat" for deer which increased the number of deer applications. There could be 1,000,000,000 elk applicants in NM, the deer odds wouldn't change if the number of deer applicants stayed the same.

You are only competing for a tag against other hunters that applied for that tag as their 1st, 2nd or 3rd choice. If there are only 100 resident hunters that apply for a hunt with 100 resident elk tags, then every one of those hunters will get either that elk tag or another elk tag that they selected for their 1st or 2nd choice. If there are 1000 resident hunters that apply for a hunt with 100 resident elk tags, then those hunters have about a 10% chance of drawing that elk tag. The odds are actually slightly better than 10% because some of those 1000 applicants will draw a different tag they selected as 1st or 2nd choice removing them competition for those 100 elk tags.

If there was 1 tag available for 10 applicants and each applicant was assigned a random number from 1 to 10 then the individuals odds are 10%. If there was 1 tag available for 10 applicants and each applicant was assigned a random number from 1 to 1,000,000,000 then the individuals odds are still 10%.
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Exactly what I'm trying to explain to people. This formula toprut has come up with is not good. It's a simple equation. Number of tags/number of applicants determines draw success rate. Not some simulation that is obviously bloating numbers. I know I just don't have the luck in the draw. Never draw good tags. But, my brother on the other hand, draws good hunts almost every year. Even though we put in for the same hunts at times on different applications. I am not allowed to put in with him on same app any more, as I got him on a five year dry spell of not drawing anything. So, I know it's just my luck. Who knows, maybe that will change this year!
 
BrianID said:
Your logic is flawed but I'm not sure I can really convince you of that. I've drawn about 12 tags in NM in the last 8 years. If you haven't drawn any NM in 10 years, then I'll stick with my logic.

The only way deer applications get affected by elk applications is that hunters that are mostly applying in NM for elk but also put their "name in the hat" for deer which increased the number of deer applications. There could be 1,000,000,000 elk applicants in NM, the deer odds wouldn't change if the number of deer applicants stayed the same.

You are only competing for a tag against other hunters that applied for that tag as their 1st, 2nd or 3rd choice. If there are only 100 resident hunters that apply for a hunt with 100 resident elk tags, then every one of those hunters will get either that elk tag or another elk tag that they selected for their 1st or 2nd choice. If there are 1000 resident hunters that apply for a hunt with 100 resident elk tags, then those hunters have about a 10% chance of drawing that elk tag. The odds are actually slightly better than 10% because some of those 1000 applicants will draw a different tag they selected as 1st or 2nd choice removing them competition for those 100 elk tags.

If there was 1 tag available for 10 applicants and each applicant was assigned a random number from 1 to 10 then the individuals odds are 10%. If there was 1 tag available for 10 applicants and each applicant was assigned a random number from 1 to 1,000,000,000 then the individuals odds are still 10%.
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Brian, you are competing against every application as to when your application will be looked at. This competition is a function of all applicants from Antelope to Oryx. The sooner your application gets looked at, the better for you. If you've drawn 12 tags in the last 8 years, your applications were looked at sooner than later. You also included 2nd and 3rd choices with hunts that don't "fill up" as quickly, while your applications were looked at sooner than later.

If someone can't draw, their applications tend to get looked at later than sooner because all the other applications push theirs to the back of the line after the random shuffle.

Two people could put in separate with identical application choices, one may draw the other wont, both won't draw, both will draw. Any of these three can happen based on when their application was looked at.

If my last post (post #110) prior to this one doesn't clear it up for you, I really don't know what to tell you...
 
BioHazrdMan said:
I am confused.... i apply for multiple species. In the drawing NMDGF draws for each species independently from other species correct? So they do a random shuffle for all ELK applications, then another for all deer applications, and so on. Is this correct?
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Yeah. You have a different application number for each species.
 
roadrunner said:
Brian, you are competing against every application as to when your application will be looked at. This competition is a function of all applicants from Antelope to Oryx. The sooner your application gets looked at, the better for you. If you've drawn 12 tags in the last 8 years, your applications were looked at sooner than later. You also included 2nd and 3rd choices with hunts that don't "fill up" as quickly, while your applications were looked at sooner than later.

If someone can't draw, their applications tend to get looked at later than sooner because all the other applications push theirs to the back of the line after the random shuffle.

Two people could put in separate with identical application choices, one may draw the other wont, both won't draw, both will draw. Any of these three can happen based on when their application was looked at.

If my last post (post #110) prior to this one doesn't clear it up for you, I really don't know what to tell you...
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But, your ping pong ball number is only relevant in relation to other ping pong balls that have the same hunt codes on an app.

You could have ball 10,000 in the first draw, but if your ball is in the first 100 for your first choice hunt code, you’re golden. Eta; for a hunt with 100 tags.

So the 9,999 elk, Ibex, etc drawn ahead of your deer is irrelevant? Correct?
 
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SLM said:
But, your ping pong ball number is only relevant in relation to other ping pong balls that have the same hunt codes on an app.

You could have ball 10,000 in the first draw, but if your ball is in the first 100 for your first choice hunt code, you’re golden. Eta; for a hunt with 100 tags.

So the 9,999 elk, Ibex, etc drawn ahead of your deer is irrelevant? Correct?
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If your ball is the first one drawn with any of your hunt codes you are good.
 
SLM said:
But, your ping pong ball number is only relevant in relation to other ping pong balls that have the same hunt codes on an app.

You could have ball 10,000 in the first draw, but if your ball is in the first 100 for your first choice hunt code, you’re golden. Eta; for a hunt with 100 tags.

So the 9,999 elk, Ibex, etc drawn ahead of your deer is irrelevant? Correct?
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The ping pong ball number (application number) assignment has nothing to do with other apps (ping pong balls) with the same hunt codes. The ball, when pulled from the tumbler, only tells the guy where he's going to stand in line.

What's written on the back of the card (application) will tell him which room (species) to go to and then based on which room he's in will tell him which booth (hunt code) to go to.

So yes, you could be number 10,000 in line with deer written on the back of your card. Ahead of you was a guy directed to the antelope room. When you go to the deer room and you're the 100th person to have a certain booth on your card written down first you could be directed to that booth for your green card. After that, the red curtain drops and the 101st guy with that booth written down is then directed to whatever booth he has written down second.

However, here's the twist. The 675th guy in line with deer written on the back of his card had his first choice booth already covered by the red curtain so he is directed to his second choice booth which is the 10,000th guy in line's first choice booth. So now, the 10,000th guy is in jeopardy of not getting his green card from the first choice booth and is directed to his second choice booth. This dilemma is repeated for the next deer guy wherever he falls in line after the initial ping pong ball number assignment.

____________________________________________________________________

This is why even though someone may feel like they have a bombproof hunt choice strategy, they can still strike out because they are too far down the list after everyone with an application number (ping pong ball) was placed in line ahead of them after the random shuffle...
 
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roadrunner said:
The ping pong ball number (application number) assignment has nothing to do with other apps (ping pong balls) with the same hunt codes. The ball, when pulled from the tumbler, only tells the guy where he's going to stand in line.

What's written on the back of the card (application) will tell him which room (species) to go to and then based on which room he's in will tell him which booth (hunt code) to go to.

So yes, you could be number 10,000 in line with deer written on the back of your card. Ahead of you was a guy directed to the antelope room. When you go to the deer room and you're the 100th person to have a certain booth on your card written down first you could be directed to that booth for your green card. After that, the red curtain drops and the 101st guy with that booth written down is then directed to whatever booth he has written down second.

However, here's the twist. The 675th guy in line with deer written on the back of his card had his first choice booth already covered by the red curtain so he is directed to his second choice booth which is the 10,000th guy in line's first choice booth. So now, the 10,000th guy is in jeopardy of not getting his green card from the first choice booth and is directed to his second choice booth. This dilemma is repeated for the next deer guy wherever he falls in line after the initial ping pong ball number assignment.

____________________________________________________________________

This is why even though someone may feel like they have a bombproof hunt choice strategy, they can still strike out because they are too far down the list after everyone with an application number (ping pong ball) was placed in line ahead of them after the random shuffle...
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Maybe we are saying the same thing, and/or I’m misinterpreting some of the above posts and apologize if so. This is what I think I’m disagreeing with.

”Brian, you are competing against every application as to when your application will be looked at. This competition is a function of all applicants from Antelope to Oryx.”

I’m only competing against all other species for a place in the big line which is irrelevant as long as I’m early in the line of people applying for the same hunt codes.
 
SLM said:
Maybe we are saying the same thing, and/or I’m misinterpreting some of the above posts and apologize if so. This is what I think I’m disagreeing with.

”Brian, you are competing against every application as to when your application will be looked at. This competition is a function of all applicants from Antelope to Oryx.”

I’m only competing against all other species for a place in the big line which is irrelevant as long as I’m early in the line of people applying for the same hunt codes.
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Exactly, doesn't matter how many apps are ahead of your app for a different species. As long there isn't more apps ahead of you for the same hunt codes for 1st, 2nd and 3rd choice then you will get 1 of those codes.
 
If it's solely a function of application and then they run through each species on your application than it'd stand to reason that whoever draws a bighorn or ibex tag would almost certainly draw an elk and deer tag too at the same time since they were (statistically) at the beginning of the line.

I was under the impression that each application per species was randomly shuffled into it's own stack. i.e. you get a ping pong ball w/ a # on it for each species?
 
TX_Diver said:
If it's solely a function of application and then they run through each species on your application than it'd stand to reason that whoever draws a bighorn or ibex tag would almost certainly draw an elk and deer tag too at the same time since they were (statistically) at the beginning of the line.

I was under the impression that each application per species was randomly shuffled into it's own stack. i.e. you get a ping pong ball w/ a # on it for each species?
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One application per species, not combined onto a single application. The applications could very well be arranged into their own species stacks, but only after the random shuffle has happened.

The description in the proclamation and website of how the draw works does not state or suggest that. This is why the larger the sample size (total applications) the "easier" the result of you being toward the bottom more often when compared to the total licenses available for any species you apply for, always putting you at the bottom of the list even if the species were to be sorted into their own respective stack.

The ping pong ball example is to illustrate how random the shuffle is, no way to predict it. Even with Chaos Theory.

The odds we commonly talk about are just the distribution of what happened after the shuffle according to the number of tags for a hunt code and the choice ranking that applicants put on it. Some years you'll see hunt codes with more 2nd and 3rd choice recipients than other years. It's certainly not because 2nd and 3rd choice applicants suddenly had better odds...
 
The only thing I dislike about the process is they have been publishing odds a week early.

Then I get disappointed from not drawing anything and spend the week wishing they hadn't posted early so I could still be hoping for getting drawn!
 
BigChiefJ said:
The only thing I dislike about the process is they have been publishing odds a week early.

Then I get disappointed from not drawing anything and spend the week wishing they hadn't posted early so I could still be hoping for getting drawn!
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Haha usually me. Every few years I draw a low odds hunt. This is going to be the year! I can feel it! Good luck!
 
BUGLEnmIN said:
I guess what I should have made clear in my thought was make a debit option, or an e check type payment. When I pay Pnm or nm gas I use the account number and routing number. Idk just a thought . If more people actually had to pay app fees from their own pocket it might weed out some.
Have a stipulation for NR to be able to continue with CC ? Idk it’s just a thought .
It’s never going to happen , people who couldn’t care less about our situation are the ones who make the calls.

Does anyone know how many apps there were last year?
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I think this idea by people wanting to weed out the guy who can’t pony up thousands of dollars is so ridiculous.

First thing is my $20,000 it would cost me to part with my cash every year applying in states as a non-res would be the dumbest financial move ever. That $20,000 makes a hell of a lot more money working for me in other avenues. So IMO most smart financial guys unless they are a millionaire would rather float a CC.

CC may charge you a few hundred bucks over the application period depending on what you apply for and how long they hold it for. So it’s Pennie’s really.

ALL fish and game departments want applications from as many people as possible so they can generate money.

Some charge point fees, some take and hold your money for 30 days and they make a sh!t load of money using our money in that 30 days.

The only state to Jack us is Wyoming because they hold our elk money for 4 months.

You miss the point in why game agencies want our applications. They don’t care about your drawing odds.
 
“ I think this idea by people wanting to weed out the guy who can’t pony up thousands of dollars is so ridiculous.”

Did you miss the part where I stated to basically make it for residents only?!? If you did here you go.
“Have a stipulation for NR to be able to continue with CC ?”

“You miss the point in why game agencies want our applications. They don’t care about your drawing odds.”

I know exactly why they want our applications! Has nothing to do with draw odds! Wth are you talking bout ?
 
BUGLEnmIN said:
Did you miss the part where I stated to basically make it for residents only?!? If you did here you go.
“Have a stipulation for NR to be able to continue with CC ?”
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But keep in mind, NM has some of the lowest household incomes in the nation, so making a resident pony up the cash isn't a whole lot different than making a "rich-guy" resident pony up $20k in NR fees.

Most people that hunt in our state do live paycheck to paycheck and have to budget all year just to go hunting once should they draw...
 
I see middle class to upper middle class people where I hunt in NM, especially if you’re hunting away from your home area. Fancy trucks, nice campers, ATV’s, nice camps and hunting gear and so forth for the most part. Hunting is not a poor man’s sport anymore unfortunately.
 
Bigfoot 1 said:
I see middle class to upper middle class people where I hunt in NM, especially if you’re hunting away from your home area. Fancy trucks, nice campers, ATV’s, nice camps and hunting gear and so forth for the most part. Hunting is not a poor man’s sport anymore unfortunately.
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Hell, just the fuel needed for hunting takes it out of a poor man’s budget. But I do find it amazing how some people have to have their $7 plus Starbucks coffee, but pay for their groceries with food stamps.
 
LIK2HNT said:
Hell, just the fuel needed for hunting takes it out of a poor man’s budget. But I do find it amazing how some people have to have their $7 plus Starbucks coffee, but pay for their groceries with food stamps.
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Funny you mention that. I am in O&G and have been in far west Texas forever. I can't tell you how many times I have been at the grocery store in Pecos and all the groceries roll across the belt and are paid for with the Lone Star (food stamp) card. After that, the beer rolls across and fresh hundred dollar bills get pulled out to pay for the beer from the same person. In the parking lot is their fancy Escallade or jacked up Dodge. Funny and sad at the same time.
 
JB1975 said:
Funny you mention that. I am in O&G and have been in far west Texas forever. I can't tell you how many times I have been at the grocery store in Pecos and all the groceries roll across the belt and are paid for with the Lone Star (food stamp) card. After that, the beer rolls across and fresh hundred dollar bills get pulled out to pay for the beer from the same person. In the parking lot is their fancy Escallade or jacked up Dodge. Funny and sad at the same time.
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When I was stationed in south Texas in the 80’s and 90’s we used to pull food stamps off of the illegal aliens. We had desk drawers full, thousands and thousands of dollars in tax payer food stamps. The food stamp authorities were called about it and they didn’t want anything to do with it and were not going to do anything about it. We did.
 
BUGLEnmIN said:
“ I think this idea by people wanting to weed out the guy who can’t pony up thousands of dollars is so ridiculous.”

Did you miss the part where I stated to basically make it for residents only?!? If you did here you go.
“Have a stipulation for NR to be able to continue with CC ?”

“You miss the point in why game agencies want our applications. They don’t care about your drawing odds.”

I know exactly why they want our applications! Has nothing to do with draw odds! Wth are you talking bout ?
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First off you are taking it to personal!!

My point to this idea is why do people that have money want to punish this guy that doesn’t have as much just to better their odds?

If you know why they want applications then why are you wanting to eliminate many people from applying because they don’t or can’t come up with the money up front? It’s go to be because you think that would better your odds, No?

As for bearing interest accounts I’m not sure I believe that but I don’t have all the information so I may be speaking out of turn here.

The question is why then do state force you to front the tag fees? If not to benefit from the increase in temporary revenue?
 
Broomer said:
First off you are taking it to personal!!

My point to this idea is why do people that have money want to punish this guy that doesn’t have as much just to better their odds?

If you know why they want applications then why are you wanting to eliminate many people from applying because they don’t or can’t come up with the money up front? It’s go to be because you think that would better your odds, No?

As for bearing interest accounts I’m not sure I believe that but I don’t have all the information so I may be speaking out of turn here.

The question is why then do state force you to front the tag fees? If not to benefit from the increase in temporary revenue?
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The point to the comment/suggestion of cash up front is from the influx of applicants over the last few years because:

1) people have learned and are learning every year (thank you GoHunt) that first timers are not penalized for not being in a point race, and:

2) people have learned to just get a special credit card for draw hunts only full well knowing they might only have one tag actually kept as a charge getting a refund for all the others.

____________________________________________________________________

The greater the number in the sample pool (applicants) the higher your chances are yearly to have the worst number in the shuffled applicant line up making your "odds" that much worse every year.

I know there are a couple of people on here who don't think it makes a difference because of their shining stars run of good luck. But the reality is, odds are just not predictable.
 
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Broomer said:
I think this idea by people wanting to weed out the guy who can’t pony up thousands of dollars is so ridiculous.

First thing is my $20,000 it would cost me to part with my cash every year applying in states as a non-res would be the dumbest financial move ever. That $20,000 makes a hell of a lot more money working for me in other avenues. So IMO most smart financial guys unless they are a millionaire would rather float a CC.

CC may charge you a few hundred bucks over the application period depending on what you apply for and how long they hold it for. So it’s Pennie’s really.

ALL fish and game departments want applications from as many people as possible so they can generate money.

Some charge point fees, some take and hold your money for 30 days and they make a sh!t load of money using our money in that 30 days.

The only state to Jack us is Wyoming because they hold our elk money for 4 months.

You miss the point in why game agencies want our applications. They don’t care about your drawing odds.
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?
Broomer said:
First off you are taking it to personal!!

My point to this idea is why do people that have money want to punish this guy that doesn’t have as much just to better their odds?

If you know why they want applications then why are you wanting to eliminate many people from applying because they don’t or can’t come up with the money up front? It’s go to be because you think that would better your odds, No?

As for bearing interest accounts I’m not sure I believe that but I don’t have all the information so I may be speaking out of turn here.

The question is why then do state force you to front the tag fees? If not to benefit from the increase in temporary revenue?
Click to expand...
Roadrunner basically summed it up! I apologize for getting my ass hairs raised but you directly quoted me!
Thank you Mr. Roadrunner for breaking that down!
 
roadrunner said:
Then, the Draw Master comes up to the first one behind the yellow line, looks at the back of the card and directs them to the meeting room marked with the species on the back of the card. A guy with Ibex on the card goes to the Ibex room, the guy with Deer goes to the deer room and so on (you get the idea).

As the card holder enters the room, a Draw Master Associate looks at the back of the card to identify the hunt codes and directs the cardholder guy to the booth listed as the 1st choice. The Booth Tender hands a green card to the applicant guy and he goes on his merry way. When this booth hands out all the green cards, they drop a red curtain over the booth. As the process is repeated for the entire line formed in the convention hall, Booth Tenders will begin to see applicant cards being directed to them that have them as 2nd and 3rd choices because their 1st choice booth has a red curtain over it.
Click to expand...

The 2nd guy in line waits till the first guy goes to all three of his "room" choices, in order, until he draws or has been to thru all three rooms. Then the 2nd guy in line does the same while the 3rd guy in line waits.
 
Broomer said:
First off you are taking it to personal!!

My point to this idea is why do people that have money want to punish this guy that doesn’t have as much just to better their odds?

If you know why they want applications then why are you wanting to eliminate many people from applying because they don’t or can’t come up with the money up front? It’s go to be because you think that would better your odds, No?

As for bearing interest accounts I’m not sure I believe that but I don’t have all the information so I may be speaking out of turn here.

The question is why then do state force you to front the tag fees? If not to benefit from the increase in temporary revenue?
Click to expand...
Putting the money up front weeds out a lot of applicants who truly do not want to hunt. They are just doing it because their friends are. It only cost $811 to apply for EVERYTHING in New Mexico. That includes game hunting license, bull elk, deer, pronghorn, javelina, bighorn sheep ram, oryx, ibex and barbary sheep. That equates to $15 a week to save to apply. Heck, if you can't save that, save less than $3 a week and apply for elk and deer. If you can't afford to save $15 a week, I don't think you should be worried about putting in for every species for the draw.... Just saying.
 
mossback50cal said:
Putting the money up front weeds out a lot of applicants who truly do not want to hunt. They are just doing it because their friends are. It only cost $811 to apply for EVERYTHING in New Mexico. That includes game hunting license, bull elk, deer, pronghorn, javelina, bighorn sheep ram, oryx, ibex and barbary sheep. That equates to $15 a week to save to apply. Heck, if you can't save that, save less than $3 a week and apply for elk and deer. If you can't afford to save $15 a week, I don't think you should be worried about putting in for every species for the draw.... Just saying.
Click to expand...
And then you have/might have travel food, camp food, gas, ammo, gear, clothes, tires, oil change, vehicle maintenance items, processing and time off of work. Just a few things off the top of my head. All this can add up to thousands.
 
WapitiBob said:
The 2nd guy in line waits till the first guy goes to all three of his "room" choices, in order, until he draws or has been to thru all three rooms. Then the 2nd guy in line does the same while the 3rd guy in line waits.
Click to expand...

But the 2nd and 3rd guys only have to wait if they both have the same species on their app as the 1st guy. If their species are different, they don't have to wait and they just go into their respective species rooms.
 
Bigfoot 1 said:
And then you have/might have travel food, camp food, gas, ammo, gear, clothes, tires, oil change, vehicle maintenance items, processing and time off of work. Just a few things off the top of my head. All this can add up to thousands.
Click to expand...
Exactly. That's why I'm saying if you can't save $15 a week to apply, I don't think you should worry about hunting. Worry about life choices and why you cannot save $15 a week. I don't mean that in a disrespectful or rude way, but it's the truth.
 
You guys are hilarious, so you are making the argument that people should not apply because they don’t have the money in their bank accounts to front the tags and fees? You are making the argument that they shouldn’t apply just because all their friends are applying too. Where is the proof of this and why should it matter to you? You apply correct? So are you more special and therefore should get better odds? The last time I checked freedom allows everyone equal opportunity.
 
roadrunner said:
But the 2nd and 3rd guys only have to wait if they both have the same species on their app as the 1st guy. If their species are different, they don't have to wait and they just go into their respective species rooms.
Click to expand...
The computer doesn’t look at the 2 guys app until the 1st app is thru the process. It’s a simple sort by random number and a line by line check.
 
Broomer said:
You guys are hilarious, so you are making the argument that people should not apply because they don’t have the money in their bank accounts to front the tags and fees? You are making the argument that they shouldn’t apply just because all their friends are applying too. Where is the proof of this and why should it matter to you? You apply correct? So are you more special and therefore should get better odds? The last time I checked freedom allows everyone equal opportunity.
Click to expand...
I’m confused here. Apply if you want, you have every right to submit an application if you’re qualified. I just brought up the cost of everything and it gets more expensive yearly. If your credit card doesn’t clear here in NM when you apply your application will be rejected at that exact moment. It’s the same thing as when you purchase a hamburger at McDonald’s or a pair of boots at Wal Mart, if that credit card is denied you can’t leave with your items.
 
JB1975 said:
Funny you mention that. I am in O&G and have been in far west Texas forever. I can't tell you how many times I have been at the grocery store in Pecos and all the groceries roll across the belt and are paid for with the Lone Star (food stamp) card. After that, the beer rolls across and fresh hundred dollar bills get pulled out to pay for the beer from the same person. In the parking lot is their fancy Escallade or jacked up Dodge. Funny and sad at the same time.
Click to expand...
Seen that here in Calif. for over 20 years. Stop into town to get a sandwich for lunch on a week day. People next to or in front of you have carts full of meat, chips, etc. (Hell, better food than I eat). Two carts with great food a king would eat, last cart FULL of booze. Food stamps for first two carts, cash for the last. Cashier looks at you and says don’t ask. Happens all the time. Then to top it off these people load all their groceries (guess they are our groceries since we paid for them). Into a newer lifted 4x4 towing a newer ski boat.
You get to go back to work, and they are off to the lake to play on your $$$.
 
Broomer said:
You guys are hilarious, so you are making the argument that people should not apply because they don’t have the money in their bank accounts to front the tags and fees? You are making the argument that they shouldn’t apply just because all their friends are applying too. Where is the proof of this and why should it matter to you? You apply correct? So are you more special and therefore should get better odds? The last time I checked freedom allows everyone equal opportunity.
Click to expand...

I don't think people should apply just because...
 
roadrunner said:
I don't think people should apply just because...
Click to expand...
Exactly! They are applying just because someone else is doing it. They want to go along to drink and camp. Well, do that without a license. If you are going to waste the tag, why put in? I'm all about doing things right, not just doing them to do them. It's like I tell my daughter, who plays for a travelling volleyball team, if you don't want to do it all the way, there are plenty of people who will gladly take your spot and do it to the best of their ability. It isn't right that someone who would truly do the tag, and animal justice, is sitting at home so someone who won't even bother to hunt gets the tag. That's just my point of view on it. Do it fully, or don't do it at all. See it every year, have friends who do it. They don't like my opinion on it. I'm sure a lot of people on here won't either. If you're tagging along just to camp, than just camp. But that's the way I was taught.

That point of view is on draw tags, if you want to buy OTC tags and not hunt, that is your choice. But, don't take opportunity from someone else if you are just going to waste it. If an emergency comes up, that is different, before anyone says something about that.
 
mossback50cal said:
Exactly! They are applying just because someone else is doing it. They want to go along to drink and camp. Well, do that without a license. If you are going to waste the tag, why put in? I'm all about doing things right, not just doing them to do them. It's like I tell my daughter, who plays for a travelling volleyball team, if you don't want to do it all the way, there are plenty of people who will gladly take your spot and do it to the best of their ability. It isn't right that someone who would truly do the tag, and animal justice, is sitting at home so someone who won't even bother to hunt gets the tag. That's just my point of view on it. Do it fully, or don't do it at all. See it every year, have friends who do it. They don't like my opinion on it. I'm sure a lot of people on here won't either. If you're tagging along just to camp, than just camp. But that's the way I was taught.

That point of view is on draw tags, if you want to buy OTC tags and not hunt, that is your choice. But, don't take opportunity from someone else if you are just going to waste it. If an emergency comes up, that is different, before anyone says something about that.
Click to expand...
I believe there is a mind set that says, well you just never know, deer could run by camp or up the mountain, or I could be driving around drinking beer and luck into one. That’s why they apply for tags.

The last few years of my dads life he would pull up to an area with an open meadow or areas where he could glass a vast area. He would sit in that truck from sun up to sun down or until I came back to get the deer cart. He was hoping and hunting for his age. He could no longer hump the mountains. We are all headed that way.
 
Bigfoot 1 said:
I believe there is a mind set that says, well you just never know, deer could run by camp or up the mountain, or I could be driving around drinking beer and luck into one. That’s why they apply for tags.

The last few years of my dads life he would pull up to an area with an open meadow or areas where he could glass a vast area. He would sit in that truck from sun up to sun down or until I came back to get the deer cart. He was hoping and hunting for his age. He could no longer hump the mountains. We are all headed that way.
Click to expand...
and that's why I say the best of our abilities. My dad is older and disabled and does the same way. But, that is the best of his ability.

But, I do not like the feeling of having a bunch of people driving around drinking beer and hunting. After the day is over, cool. But, when you're hunting, no. Exactly why I will not rifle hunt. Have been out there and bullets whizzing by, people not realizing what they are doing.
 
mossback50cal said:
and that's why I say the best of our abilities. My dad is older and disabled and does the same way. But, that is the best of his ability.

But, I do not like the feeling of having a bunch of people driving around drinking beer and hunting. After the day is over, cool. But, when you're hunting, no. Exactly why I will not rifle hunt. Have been out there and bullets whizzing by, people not realizing what they are doing.
Click to expand...
I get way off the roads, back in the mountains where people can’t drive and the big game hang out.

More people choke to death yearly than are killed by hunting accidents. Of multiple sports that includes baseball, football, basketball, running/jogging and more Hunting is ranked as one of the safest activities to participate in.
 
Savage110 said:
Serious question, do we really know if the greenies are applying for tags just to not use them? Seems like we could find someone bragging about it in social media if they did.
Click to expand...
I know a few that drew last year and didn’t go because of many reasons and I would safely say 90% were new to hunting. People think it is easy, cheap and a walk in the park and when they get out there it is a culture shock.
 
Bigfoot 1 said:
I get way off the roads, back in the mountains where people can’t drive and the big game hang out.

More people choke to death yearly than are killed by hunting accidents. Of multiple sports that includes baseball, football, basketball, running/jogging and more Hunting is ranked as one of the safest activities to participate in.
Click to expand...
I agree. I still don't like the thought of a bunch of drunk people running around with guns. But, that's just me.
 
You're right, it is everywhere now, unfortunately. But, let's get back to the original topic. I like NM's draw process how it is, but if I could change anything, it would be back to 1st then 2nd then 3rd choices on an app.
 
mossback50cal said:
You're right, it is everywhere now, unfortunately. But, let's get back to the original topic. I like NM's draw process how it is, but if I could change anything, it would be back to 1st then 2nd then 3rd choices on an app.
Click to expand...

And to get rid of the outfitter welfare pool. I don't think a straight 90/10 split is too much to ask for which also aligns with what most other states are doing.
 
LIK2HNT said:
Please keep this civil. I am just throwing out this idea to NM because it is one of the true random draw processes out there. I am a NR so take that for what it is worth.
I did not want to side track the other recent thread. Seems like a lot of residents are worried about increasing applicants and lower and lower draw odds. Please think about this idea and post and pros and cons you see with it. Times are changing, and I feel everyone needs to give a little to gain.

What if you could only apply every other year based on your birth date? Theoretically this would cut applicants in half, greatly increasing odds. Something like this:

Odd birth years (example for 2023) can apply for Deer, Oryx, Ibex

Even birth years (example for 2023) can apply for Elk, Bighorn Sheep, Barbary Sheep
——————————————-

Even birth years (example for 2024) can apply for Deer, Oryx, Ibex

Odd birth years (example for 2024) can apply for Elk, Bighorn Sheep, Barbary Sheep

The next year they would switch. So every year you would apply for something, yet only be ably to apply for a specific species every other year.

Left over tags would be up for grabs for anyone.

One con I see with this is for group and family group hunters. Not everyone would have/be able to get a tag. This is where a little give comes in. They could still go and help out though. But odds of being draw are greatly increased.

As a NR I have drawn an Oryx tag in 2000 and my daughter drew a youth deer tag 10 years ago. I like NM system except for the outfitter allocation, but that is out of my control.
Thanks
Click to expand...
The every-other-year thing WILL NOT HELP. In your birth year your odds double. In the off year your odds go to zero. Average for the two years is exactly the same as if you had been able to apply for both years.

Either we stay purely random (my recommendation) or go to some general style of points system. In every single points system odds of some are increased artificially in on one way or another at the expense of others' odds. I don't like it.

In nearly every state with some sort of points system they have been forced to change due to the overwhelming number of applicants vs the limited number of tags.

Keep NM random!!!
 
smarba said:
The every-other-year thing WILL NOT HELP. In your birth year your odds double. In the off year your odds go to zero. Average for the two years is exactly the same as if you had been able to apply for both years.

Either we stay purely random (my recommendation) or go to some general style of points system. In every single points system odds of some are increased artificially in on one way or another at the expense of others' odds. I don't like it.

In nearly every state with some sort of points system they have been forced to change due to the overwhelming number of applicants vs the limited number of tags.

Keep NM random!!!
Click to expand...

Birth year thing is not the right way. The purpose to a waiting period is only if you happen to have drawn a tag and you sit out the following year.

NM did the birth year thing a few years ago with oryx and it sucked! Year 1 you could apply but not in year 2. In year 1 if you didn't draw, you couldn't apply the next year, you had to wait for year 3. Then if you didn't draw again, the cycle repeated again for year 5. So yeah, in a 10 year timeframe, you could only apply half the time.

That was ended in about 2 or 3 years. That was also the same time when they had the genius cow oryx only tags and found out that 1/3 of the cows shot were actually bulls...
 
And quit buying all that fancy camo, $80k truck, $30k trailer and $20k UTV and then when it comes to getting your trophy mounted you done run out of money and ask for discounts. ? ? it's crazy how much supplies, tanning, and shipping has gone up in the last 2 years. Going rate around NM for Deer/Antelope are about $800, Elk $ 1400, Oryx $1200 so while you are budgeting don't forget about us little guys. ?.
Good luck everyone and hope to draw something this year.
 
roadrunner said:
Birth year thing is not the right way. The purpose to a waiting period is only if you happen to have drawn a tag and you sit out the following year.

NM did the birth year thing a few years ago with oryx and it sucked! Year 1 you could apply but not in year 2. In year 1 if you didn't draw, you couldn't apply the next year, you had to wait for year 3. Then if you didn't draw again, the cycle repeated again for year 5. So yeah, in a 10 year timeframe, you could only apply half the time.

That was ended in about 2 or 3 years. That was also the same time when they had the genius cow oryx only tags and found out that 1/3 of the cows shot were actually bulls...
Click to expand...
Hmmm, I don’t remember the birth year thing.
 
Weapon choice: maybe
Birth year NO!
90/10 split and getting rid of outfitter pool will not help non residents. Where do you think the 10% of the nonres apps going? It will not increase your odds. 90/10 will only help us residents.

I think that maybe making a requirement for people to take hunters safety perhaps??‍♂️
 
Oh the anticipation. It's not if I draw anything, but are they going to post results early.

Maybe I should have applied for one of the deer hunts that went leftover last year. If everyone did that there would be no leftovers. :)
 
BigChiefJ said:
Oh the anticipation. It's not if I draw anything, but are they going to post results early.

Maybe I should have applied for one of the deer hunts that went leftover last year. If everyone did that there would be no leftovers. :)
Click to expand...
Results have been posted early in the past, I hope they do this year also. I always assume left over tags are because there were not enough hunters who put in for them, but you never know.
 
Bigfoot 1 said:
Results have been posted early in the past, I hope they do this year also. I always assume left over tags are because there were not enough hunters who put in for them, but you never know.
Click to expand...

True, they must be difficult or low success hunts if people aren't applying for them.
 
BioHazrdMan said:
I am confused.... i apply for multiple species. In the drawing NMDGF draws for each species independently from other species correct? So they do a random shuffle for all ELK applications, then another for all deer applications, and so on. Is this correct?
Click to expand...


Yes each species is different. The computer shuffles the apps then assign a number and go through each choice
 
smarba said:
The every-other-year thing WILL NOT HELP. In your birth year your odds double. In the off year your odds go to zero. Average for the two years is exactly the same as if you had been able to apply for both years.

Either we stay purely random (my recommendation) or go to some general style of points system. In every single points system odds of some are increased artificially in on one way or another at the expense of others' odds. I don't like it.

In nearly every state with some sort of points system they have been forced to change due to the overwhelming number of applicants vs the limited number of tags.

Keep NM random!!!
Click to expand...
Yup, Keep it Random!!
 
Being the last guy to the party. If an applicant applies for 4 species(as an example) he will get 4 random numbers to be evaluated in order among all of the other random numbers? But there is no interaction between species(like Utah) where drawing one species disallows you to draw another?
 
idahomuleyhunter said:
Being the last guy to the party. If an applicant applies for 4 species(as an example) he will get 4 random numbers to be evaluated in order among all of the other random numbers? But there is no interaction between species(like Utah) where drawing one species disallows you to draw another?
Click to expand...
Yes and yes. In theory you could draw all 4 tags.
 
idahomuleyhunter said:
Being the last guy to the party. If an applicant applies for 4 species(as an example) he will get 4 random numbers to be evaluated in order among all of the other random numbers? But there is no interaction between species(like Utah) where drawing one species disallows you to draw another?
Click to expand...
I’ve drawn 4 tags on numerous occasions. It can and does happen. Apply for everything! Good luck on your draw.
 
Thanks you two. I was just trying to wrap my head around the statistics of how some guys think there may be an advantage to be gained in this system. I don't apply in NM because I don't have the time to travel that far right now but hopefully will some day.
 
idahomuleyhunter said:
Thanks you two. I was just trying to wrap my head around the statistics of how some guys think there may be an advantage to be gained in this system. I don't apply in NM because I don't have the time to travel that far right now but hopefully will some day.
Click to expand...

The only advantage to NM's system is you aren't penalized for being "the last guy to the party", or, for sitting out a few years.

Having putting in for decades, you have the same shot as I do your first ever year to apply for elk and pull an Oct muzzleloader tag for the Valles Caldera.

As far as the 4 random numbers for your 4 different applications, they may not be viewed in order necessarily. Your app numbers could be 1000, 1001, 1002, and 1003 and be viewed in any order because of the random number they were assigned and anywhere in that order relative to all the other applications.

The published "odds" are not odds at all. They merely represent the allocation of the tags for a hunt code among the 1st, 2nd, and 3rd choices for that hunt code because all choices on an application are looked at equally before moving on to the next application, which, may be an entirely different species as yours was.
 
I've read through a bunch of it today. It's an interesting system. Certainly seems to be potential to improve draw odds by choosing wisely. But I guess that's true of any state.
 
The thing that doesn't seem to be published in the data is how many applicants conditionally remove themselves by selecting 3 difficult to draw hunts. Meaning what are the chances of jumping up the que because people ahead of you have no tags left available to them. I guess that's the reason for the simulations.
 
We always put in for the areas we know and have hunted in for decades. When applying for deer/elk we put in for the second hunt first and the first hunt second. We also split our applications, some apply on one app, others on a different app. That way if somebody draws everybody gets to go and those who don’t draw can buy an over the counter Bear or mountain Lion tag. Does this ‘system” make a difference in draw odds, I don’t know but it sure has worked for us.
 
Bigfoot 1 said:
We always put in for the areas we know and have hunted in for decades. When applying for deer/elk we put in for the second hunt first and the first hunt second. We also split our applications, some apply on one app, others on a different app. That way if somebody draws everybody gets to go and those who don’t draw can buy an over the counter Bear or mountain Lion tag. Does this ‘system” make a difference in draw odds, I don’t know but it sure has worked for us.
Click to expand...
I think it does. Because the less people on the app, the more likely you can draw the tag. If you have four people on it, and your app is pulled, but there are only three tags, you get skipped over and unsuccessful.
 
idahomuleyhunter said:
The thing that doesn't seem to be published in the data is how many applicants conditionally remove themselves by selecting 3 difficult to draw hunts. Meaning what are the chances of jumping up the que because people ahead of you have no tags left available to them. I guess that's the reason for the simulations.
Click to expand...

You can "tell" who may conditionally remove themselves based on how many 2nd and 3rd choice applicants there are with lower tag numbers and really high 1st choice applicants, especially if the hunt code is a HD or Q hunt designation.

Obviously, the hunt will likely fill up with the higher number of 1st choice applicants before anyone's 2nd and 3rd choice gets a chance. You will see this from the actuals after the draw with who got what on the distribution.

The so-called studying and careful planning some refer to is identifying the hunt codes that have the highest number of 2nd and 3rd choice tag awards with the most even distribution of 1st, 2nd, and 3rd choice applicants. Trust me, it doesn't work as well as some of these people think it does...

So, the strategy is to choose a really good hunt as a 1st choice, followed by the other two choices with the more even distribution described above.

The simulations are completely false in what they show because there are no "bogus" data outliers to filter out because you don't know what the real conditions will be as far as people putting in with a nonresident that wouldn't have enough NR tags, kicking out everyone else on the application. You cannot predict that.
 
Trust me, we hunt in the State of New Mexico yearly! We don’t do any studying or careful planning when it comes to draw odds. We apply for areas we’ve hunted for a long time. We submit our applications the way I mentioned above. It probably won’t work for you or most. I hope it works again this year. I guess the one thing we’ve always been good at is luck. Good luck to all.
 
Ya, it all comes down to luck. I have put in for hunts that were slam dunks to draw and not drawn. I remember as a teen, they did a hunt on white sands for mule deer. My brother and I put in for it, and only four people did not draw. Him and I were two of them, on the same application. He has good luck, draws hunts every year. I put in for most species yearly, and never draw. Usually if I do, it is archery for deer. But, that has gone down hill for my drawing now also. I guess I just don't have luck in the draw. Only drawn two bull elk tags my entire life. A 16c first archery hunt about a decade ago, and a 21b archery tag three. Only ones I have drawn, with putting in every single year. I have put in for some hunts that have been over 90% draw and can't draw lol.
 
^^^ yep, know the feeling. And then the guy down the street draws tags every year you're not supposed to put in for because they are impossible to draw...
 
I was one of about 500 out of 17,000 in Montana who couldn't pull a deer license. I think that was 2017. Someone's gotta makes the unlucky one. My sister put in for Unit 11 sheep ID one time and drew it. Some people...
 
idahomuleyhunter said:
I was one of about 500 out of 17,000 in Montana who couldn't pull a deer license. I think that was 2017. Someone's gotta makes the unlucky one. My sister put in for Unit 11 sheep ID one time and drew it. Some people...
Click to expand...

Yeah, I know a guy that drew a NM bighorn ram the first time he ever applied for it.
 
mossback50cal said:
Ya, it all comes down to luck. I have put in for hunts that were slam dunks to draw and not drawn. I remember as a teen, they did a hunt on white sands for mule deer. My brother and I put in for it, and only four people did not draw. Him and I were two of them, on the same application. He has good luck, draws hunts every year. I put in for most species yearly, and never draw. Usually if I do, it is archery for deer. But, that has gone down hill for my drawing now also. I guess I just don't have luck in the draw. Only drawn two bull elk tags my entire life. A 16c first archery hunt about a decade ago, and a 21b archery tag three. Only ones I have drawn, with putting in every single year. I have put in for some hunts that have been over 90% draw and can't draw lol.
Click to expand...
Hang in there, don’t give up. It will pay off one day I have a feeling.
 

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