Huntindude, here are some additional thoughts, based on my research.
First Colorado. Throughout the 90's, Colorado's deer herds were decreasing much like Oregon's. Buck ratios of 15-20/100 does (higher than Oregon's, but not by much). In 1999 Colorado cut total mule deer tags to less than 50% of the year before, and every tag was limited entry. In 8 years, buck ratios increased to an average of 35/100 state wide, and fawn ratios typically in the 60/100 range. the population increased to approximately 600,000 mule deer. My prediction is, assuming no additional devastating winters in the next five years, Colorado mule deer numbers will increase dramatically. I have had numerous discussions with ODFW employees about Colorado, and they refuse to admit that higher buck ratios had anything to do with what happened over that 8 year period.
I started hunting in 1962 for mule deer in the Ochoco unit. Went with my family for several years before that in both the Maury and Ochoco units. I always find it interesting when people talk about how great the habitat was then, or how important logging was to supporting high deer populations. Although I can't speak for other parts of the state, none of that was a factor in Central Oregon.
When you look at the history of mule deer in Oregon, some interesting things show up. Deer populations were low in the early 30's, and Mule Deer sanctuary's, with no hunting, were set up on a number of units. As I recall, the one in the Ochoco unit was west of the North Fork of the Crooked River, but that could be wrong. In addition, the depression and very low road densities kept most people close to home. There were large areas in the Ochoco Unit that saw very little hunting pressure. Throughout the 30's, the number of mature bucks was increasing.
What happens next? World War II, millions of men are in the service, guns and ammo are very restricted, and very little harvest of mule deer took place. By the time the men came home, mule deer populations in this area had exploded, with
very high fawn survival rates, high numbers of mature bucks, etc. Even though the number of hunters and harvest began to increase very quickly in the 50's, the lack of access and excellent herd dynamics kept herds growing.
Typically, ODFW began issuing large numbers of doe tags, and harvest skyrocketed. By the late 60's, mule deer numbers were dropping in the Ochoco unit, but the doe tag numbers remained high for a number of additional years.
The peak of the population in the early 60's on the Ochoco unit likely exceeded 40,000 deer, based on the harvest that was occurring. At that time, the habitat was in much poorer shape than it is today, at least on the east end of the unit, mostly due to much higher grazing numbers and poor rotation practices. Substantial logging, particularly into the large roadless areas, really did not crank up til the early 70's. Road densities increased dramatically between 1070 and 1990, and with very high buck tag numbers, put tremendous pressure on the mature buck component of the population. Buck ratios have remained in the 10-18/100 does range for the past 30 years, and a high percentage of those are 1.5 year olds, hardly a mature buck.
There is no question that the banning of 1080 poison (in 1968, I believe) had a negative impact on deer populations due to Coyote predation of fawns, and certainly since 1994 Cougars are a very serious problem. I am convinced however, that the major underlying cause of the decline in populations on the unit is the lack of mature bucks during the breeding season.
At some point, a deer population decreases to the point where there is not enough breeding stock left to rebuild a population. There is little question in my mind that Oregon has reached that point on the Trout Creek Unit, the east side of the Steens, the Warner unit, the Snake River unit, and probably other areas I am not as familiar with. I am afraid that we are approaching that point on the portion of the Ochoco unit east of the North Fork of the Crooked River. Issuing 2,800 buck tags on that unit, given buck ratios of 9/100, is a potential disaster, and if conditions are good and a large kills occurs, that will likely be the final chapter in a long, sad story.
Scoutdog