2021 Hunt Recaps

WesternSky

Active Member
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533

Broken dreams, missed creep guesses, and a few surprises contained here.
 
So who actually got bit by point creep? List your season, species, and unit.
 
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If I would have gone with 62 like I was originally planning on doing I wouldn’t have drawn when in 2020 I would have had enough points to draw it. So it creeped by a point. Luckily I switched units and padded myself.
 
The odds definitely decreased on some 0-1 point hunts that my brother and I debated on doing. We played things on the safe side and it worked out for us.
 
The deer unit I drew was 100% draw odds with 6 point in 2020 and 3 of 19 drew with 10 points for 16% odds this year. A lot of creep for this unit. I was one of the lucky 3 that drew with 10 points. The Drew’s have been good to me this year so my schedule is full and my bank account is going to be empty. Especially if I end up with a taxidermy bill. Good problem to have.
 
The deer unit I drew was 100% draw odds with 6 point in 2020 and 3 of 19 drew with 10 points for 16% odds this year. A lot of creep for this unit. I was one of the lucky 3 that drew with 10 points. The Drew’s have been good to me this year so my schedule is full and my bank account is going to be empty. Especially if I end up with a taxidermy bill. Good problem to have.
Should be a fun 2nd season hunt!
 
I really don't know, but I think we got creeped out of 03/301. Second season was second choice I believe


Nope
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The deer unit I drew (44) didn't creep hardly at all which I was shocked. I drew 3rd and could have drawn 4th! My elk unit, 501 for muzzy did creep a full point which was a bit surprising based on the last several years of data. My 3rd choice which should have been a slam dunk for archery also had significant creep as previous years there were leftovers and this year some people didn't draw it 2nd choice. So I'll be watching for leftovers all summer along with 50,000 others!!!
 
To clarify, I'm a resident and I did see there was creep for nonresidents at least for the 2nd and 3rd seasons.
 
I got creeped, hard. Unit went from 7 pts guaranteed in 2020 to 12 in 2021. Interesting how some units didn't creep at all and some were ridiculous. God bless the internet!
 
To clarify, I'm a resident and I did see there was creep for nonresidents at least for the 2nd and 3rd seasons.
There were some gigantic gaps for residents where many spent significantly over what was required and it wasn't just a few that did that, many did in those units. Interesting anyways. I bet things move backwards a bit next year.
 
Hopefully this is the year we get rid of a lot of high point holders.

The most amazing thing to me is how fast they put out this data now. Just a few years ago we were lucky to have this info by late fall.
According to time stamp it was published on May 12th. So really the draw was already over at that point.
 
What surprised me was the creep for 2nd and 3rd season deer and no creep for 4th season in units 66 and 67. 67 4th season actually required less points this year than last year. I didn't draw it last year with 22 points and it took 21 this year.
 
What surprised me was the creep for 2nd and 3rd season deer and no creep for 4th season in units 66 and 67. 67 4th season actually required less points this year than last year. I didn't draw it last year with 22 points and it took 21 this year.
Thanksgiving effect. Some non-residents don't want to give up Thanksgiving to hunt 4th this year I guess.
 
If you follow unit 44 you will see it was still the highest demand in the state. Fourth season was in higher demand than third season in 44 again this year.
Second season was 15 points to draw this year I think.
I’m not saying it’s the best unit in the state but a lot of the High Point holders still think so.
Is there any other buck deer hunt unit that is in higher demand?
 
Whether 3rd or 4th season will be better will depend more on the weather/ snow than which season. Both should be near the peak of the rut. I am going 3rd and hoping for some snow!
 
What surprised me was the creep for 2nd and 3rd season deer and no creep for 4th season in units 66 and 67. 67 4th season actually required less points this year than last year. I didn't draw it last year with 22 points and it took 21 this year.
iMO on the NR side with so few tags available for the 4th season hunts and high point applicants unable to predict if the drawing trends/points required for those late season hunts would hold true this year the high point holders had a difficult decision; 1. hope points required would not unreasonably creep and apply for the 4th season tag and pray higher points holders didn’t jump in and take the tags leaving them sitting on the sidelines coupled with the majority of the big bucks getting wiped out with nothing left for them next year, or 2. assure themselves of drawing a tag in the 3rd season with essentially historical 4th season dates and go hunting!

Horniac
 
Hopefully this is the year we get rid of a lot of high point holders.

The most amazing thing to me is how fast they put out this data now. Just a few years ago we were lucky to have this info by late fall.
If I looked at it right over 2,400 people with 16 points or more put in for just preference points. So next year 2,400 with 17 or more points.More than 1,200 will have over twenty points. That won’t go away fast.
 
But a lot of those people just put in for preference point only every year. They won’t necessarily put in for a tag next year either. That is pretty static. The question is how many jumped in and used extra points that they shouldn’t have needed.
 
2nd season, Unit 1 went up exactly 3 points for non-resident. Took 17 to guarantee it this year. I only looked at this unit. ?
 
But a lot of those people just put in for preference point only every year. They won’t necessarily put in for a tag next year either. That is pretty static. The question is how many jumped in and used extra points that they shouldn’t have needed.
It looks like 3,417 people applied for a limited tag with 16 or more points. Only 285 drew a tag. That leaves another 3,132 people with 17 or better points next year. I can’t imagine point creep reversing next year.
 
iMO on the NR side with so few tags available for the 4th season hunts and high point applicants unable to predict if the drawing trends/points required for those late season hunts would hold true this year the high point holders had a difficult decision; 1. hope points required would not unreasonably creep and apply for the 4th season tag and pray higher points holders didn’t jump in and take the tags leaving them sitting on the sidelines coupled with the majority of the big bucks getting wiped out with nothing left for them next year, or 2. assure themselves of drawing a tag in the 3rd season with essentially historical 4th season dates and go hunting!

Horniac
And....pick up a few extra hunt days.
 
I’m another who struck out unit 66 2nd with 10 points. Unit went from 7 to 11 although a few drew with 10, As mentioned 45 tags were added to this hunt. I won’t be applying in 2022 for this hunt due to conflict with dates will look to find 4th season hunt.
 
It was a pretty easy decision to burn my 19 points this year. Decent winters, late dates and I found an outfitter that I was very comfortable with. I wanted a 3rd season hunt and my points made units 53,54,55 and 67 possibilities. I decided to go for 55 and drew it with a couple of points to spare. All of these units except 53 crept about 4 points which is pretty significant in my opinion and I have no regrets about using the points. I can’t possibly catch the people in front of me for better hunts and the future for growing mature mule deer is uncertain at best. I’m not sure what the others with 20 ish points are waiting for.
 
Here is the reality..........after this year the points will be worth much less than they were this year........all those 2nd season tags in what had been 3rd season dates will take a big toll...........and whatever makes it will then have to survive 3rd season in the middle of the rut........By the time 4th gets there and cleans out what might have survived I bet there will be a lot of sob stories about eating tags or shooting young bucks..........Other than units with enough private to keep bucks safe age class will continue to deteriorate regardless of winters........add in a bad winter or two and by the time they look at the season structures again a 160 buck will be a great buck.......And people will need to either keep building points or burn them with hunting worse than it was on 2nd choice units 10 years ago......Many factors to blame but these season changes will be the final nail in the coffin.........
 

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