712 deaths, 53.442 cases

Founder

Founder

Founder Since 1999
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On Saturday we had 260 deaths and 19k cases. NOW, 712 and 53k. It’s likely to continue at this pace. I believe in a couple months or so we’ll begin getting close to at least slowing cases. Taking it serious and social distancing I think is key.

Unfortunately, I think we’ll see huge death numbers. The fact is, we ain’t slowing growth yet.
I do believe that in a couple months or so we’ll be able to handle the sick decently and we’ll start seeing the spread slow.
When the day comes that we’re all washing hands, wearing face masks and still practicing work at home where possible and social distancing, we’ll get ahead of it.
 
I'd be curious to see how those numbers stack up against things that people normally die of. I know in Utah we've still had more auto accident deaths, even with way fewer people on the roads.
 
257Tony said:
I'd be curious to see how those numbers stack up against things that people normally die of. I know in Utah we've still had more auto accident deaths, even with way fewer people on the roads.
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Utah auto deaths and accidents don't over run hospitals, care givers and equipment. They're also not contagious and put others at risk of auto accidents just by being around them. Imagine if every person who had, or is going to have, a fender bender could infect other people for two days prior and 14 days after their fender bender and cause others to also have auto accidents of some kind. It would be chaos and spread like crazy.
The urgency of all this isn't right now, it's in a few weeks or a month or so when exponential growth reaches that breaking point. It's not even a huge deal here in Utah, but two months ago it wasn't a big deal in the US......it is now.
You know what I mean?
 
I don't know if what you predict will become facts fonder I truly pray it wont come to that.
But I strongly believe life as we knew it 6 months ago will never be again. Everything is going to change and I do not think it will be for the better.
 
Screenshot_20200325-094506.png
84 Hospitalized in Colorado and the healthcare system is being overloaded.?SMH... Shortage of ventilators... How? Medical crisis? Please.... Fear crisis from media, politicians, and other population control entities. Don't worry it will only cost us $2T + whatever has been lost in savings/retirement, business, and other income. Wonder if they will offer at least a reach-around. Read the rationale behind the Corona legislation it clearly states FEARS not medical impacts of the virus. Come on people, wake up and really see what's happening.
 
tailchasers said:
View attachment 387384 Hospitalized in Colorado and the healthcare system is being overloaded.?SMH... Shortage of ventilators... How? Medical crisis? Please.... Fear crisis from media, politicians, and other population control entities. Don't worry it will only cost us $2T + whatever has been lost in savings/retirement, business, and other income. Wonder if they will offer at least a reach-around. Read the rationale behind the Corona legislation it clearly states FEARS not medical impacts of the virus. Come on people, wake up and really see what's happening.
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What is it that's happening? I'm not following you. I just base my thoughts and opinions on the facts.
 
There are hospitals here in Colo who are turning away patients, not to mention visitors and elective surgeries. The medical community disagrees that this is a normal flu. Read up on why.
 
Another fact to keep in mind, as USA has currently documented over 800 deaths, and over 55,000 cases, we only have recorded 379 recoveries. That means over 50,000 cases in which we do not know the true recovery rate.

I understand there are all kinds of arguments to support the view this is being overblown. My point is we have actual evidence that shows this is happening to a degree and with a speed to which we have never seen in our lifetimes.

Caution is advised under such circumstances. Hope for the best, plan for the worst.
 
Have any of yall noticed how many times the news channels want to tell us this is "real"??? They said it over and over. The guests on the shows keep saying it's "real". Do you know why they keep saying that? Because they don't have credibility anymore. They haven't had credibility for 2 decades. They have been lying to us for so long the majority of us are tired of them.

Do I think the virus is "real"? Yep. Do I think we are a bunch of mindless lemmings living in, and controlled by, fear? Yep.
 
Tristate said:
Have any of yall noticed how many times the news channels want to tell us this is "real"??? They said it over and over. The guests on the shows keep saying it's "real". Do you know why they keep saying that? Because they don't have credibility anymore. They haven't had credibility for 2 decades. They have been lying to us for so long the majority of us are tired of them.

Do I think the virus is "real"? Yep. Do I think we are a bunch of mindless lemmings living in, and controlled by, fear? Yep.
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I don't think those who are concerned are living in fear. I know I'm not, but I am concerned with how all this plays out......will it reach my family and could I be seeing someone die because of this? Will this impact my livelihood, etc.?
What fear there might be is that there will be a bunch of people who don't take it seriously that will run around spreading the virus, and that ultimately effects us all. News channels keep repeating that it's real because there's still a large number of people not taking it serious. Not taking it serious is what will hurt us in fighting it.
Filling up churches on Easter would be foolish, but there is concern that some people will do it, then carry to virus to others who were foolish. If only the stupid and foolish got sick, it might not matter as much.
 
The facts are that most likely more people will die from the normal flu than the China Virus. The mortality rate will be less
 
At some point almost ALL of us will be exposed to it. The more exposed means the less chance of it spreading further. Herd immunity, almost a fire break for the virus.
 
treedagain said:
The facts are that most likely more people will die from the normal flu than the China Virus. The mortality rate will be less
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We shall see. At the present rate, if nothing changes, puts us there in 3 weeks. So what do you think will happen that will slow down the growing death numbers?
 
I am hopeful we keep the number below the Flu. It may be a stretch to keep it under.

I am not a doctor obviously. I think once enough people are exposed and survive that will create a buffer between them and the uninfected. That will slow it down. If the most vulnerable are careful and use good judgement they will not get infected and if so at a much later date when treatment and vaccines will be available.

My wife is immune compromised and she will be out of the mix for awhile to help reduce here chance. I am practicing best practices to help minimize my chance of getting it.
 
The Flu death rate = .006% or 1 in 1,666
CoronaVirus death rate = 1.34% or 1 in 75

Hospitalization rate of CoronaVirus is much, much higher as well.

I don't think it's a "fact" that the flu will kill more people. I'd like to see evidence of that fact.
 
I personally not that worried about the covid 19, it might affect someone close to me it might not only time will tell.
But I know dam well this economy is going to effect me and my family and others that I am close too.
I also know that gazillion dollar bill that congress is cramming through the House and the Senate is going too effect our generation and many more generations.
I also know that the Constitution is going too be severely tested before this is over and right now I do not trust the Fedral government left or right. As of one month ago I believed we could count on a few states too stand up for the Constitution but after watching all the states fold over this virus what will the states do when there is a real crisis.
States should never ask the Fedreal government too call up the National Guard for duty in there home state. The Governor has that right and should use that right if he fells the need is just.
Just my opinion.
 
treedagain said:
I am hopeful we keep the number below the Flu. It may be a stretch to keep it under.

I am not a doctor obviously. I think once enough people are exposed and survive that will create a buffer between them and the uninfected. That will slow it down. If the most vulnerable are careful and use good judgement they will not get infected and if so at a much later date when treatment and vaccines will be available.

My wife is immune compromised and she will be out of the mix for awhile to help reduce here chance. I am practicing best practices to help minimize my chance of getting it.
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Yes, I'm hopeful as well. Worldwide we haven't reached CoronaVirus death numbers as U.S. Flu deaths, so maybe it can be controlled. ??? It would be great if warmer weather also helped.
 
Founder, this is a herd. You can't stop that. You are going to come into contact with the virus. It's inevitable. You will need some food one day or you will pump some gass, or you will get a hug from a seemingly healthy little kid and bam the virus is on you. the only people who may realistically not encounter the virus at all are sitting in some bunker somewhere monitoring a short wave radio and have enough food to sit there for another 3 years.

The scary thing is if the entire economy melts down the amount of exposure and sickness will become an exponential equation.
 
Tristate said:
Founder, this is a herd. You can't stop that. You are going to come into contact with the virus. It's inevitable. You will need some food one day or you will pump some gass, or you will get a hug from a seemingly healthy little kid and bam the virus is on you. the only people who may realistically not encounter the virus at all are sitting in some bunker somewhere monitoring a short wave radio and have enough food to sit there for another 3 years.

The scary thing is if the entire economy melts down the amount of exposure and sickness will become an exponential equation.
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Just going out to the mail box to get your mail and open it is pretty high risk.

If you even say that at some point we need to get back to work, someone will say you're choosing greed over human life and a Trump lover. I knew that day was coming.
 
"If you even say that at some point we need to get back to work, someone will say you're choosing greed over human life and a Trump lover. I knew that day was coming."

I'm saying that. But I'm trying to get people to quit thinking they get to pick their poison.

The problem with picking your poison is that while you think you are trying to choose for yourself everybody else gets poisoned by your choice.
 
I wasn't accusing you of saying that. I saw that on Yahoo dot com

Tristate said:
"If you even say that at some point we need to get back to work, someone will say you're choosing greed over human life and a Trump lover. I knew that day was coming."

I'm saying that. But I'm trying to get people to quit thinking they get to pick their poison.

The problem with picking your poison is that while you think you are trying to choose for yourself everybody else gets poisoned by your choice.
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You have to go to work. At some point, boredom will force you to go to work. Won't it? I'm working 80 hours a week trying to cover for the sissy d bags that can't go outside. WTF? If you're high risk then stay home. Everybody else, get to work! You're not helping anything by staying home. You're either gonna get it or your not. The economy is not waiting on you. All this BS is just unneeded hysteria. GO TO WORK.
 
Alwayshunting said:
You have to go to work. At some point, boredom will force you to go to work. Won't it? I'm working 80 hours a week trying to cover for the sissy d bags that can't go outside. WTF? If you're high risk then stay home. Everybody else, get to work! You're not helping anything by staying home. You're either gonna get it or your not. The economy is not waiting on you. All this BS is just unneeded hysteria. GO TO WORK.
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Boredom never made me go to work, but financial obligations sure did. My monthly financial obligations would cause me to earn an income, one way or the other. Please don't try to stop that because you will lose.
 
My financial obligations are more than covered. I tried to take 6 months off one time and at 5 months and then days, me and my liver had a talk and decided we should be working. Lol
 
The medical people that I work with are telling me that the mortality rate being reported in the media is significantly overstated, which is common for any new disease. We do know what the numerator is, but we currently don't have any good data on what the denominator is because there are many many more cases out there that are not currently being reported, because for the majority of the people the symptoms are mild. How many? Nobody currently knows, but when we do get a better handle on the actual data, we can expect to see the actual mortality rates go down.
 
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Founder said:
The Flu death rate = .006% or 1 in 1,666
CoronaVirus death rate = 1.34% or 1 in 75

Hospitalization rate of CoronaVirus is much, much higher as well.

I don't think it's a "fact" that the flu will kill more people. I'd like to see evidence of that fact.
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That number will move in the end..
 
Alwayshunting said:
You have to go to work. At some point, boredom will force you to go to work. Won't it? I'm working 80 hours a week trying to cover for the sissy d bags that can't go outside. WTF? If you're high risk then stay home. Everybody else, get to work! You're not helping anything by staying home. You're either gonna get it or your not. The economy is not waiting on you. All this BS is just unneeded hysteria. GO TO WORK.
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Alwayshunting said:
And exactly what posts are you referring to young man? My apologies if I've somehow offended you.
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This one ^^^. Just because you are not high risk doesn't mean that you should be going out and getting exposed. All that will do is spread it around. And, they are not Sissy D_Bags for staying home.

P.S I am one of those that go to work every day. I would stay home if I could but I can't so I am extremely careful to stay away from people.
 
I bet the final death rate will be 1 % or less but still very signifigant. Idaho just went to stay at home order. I will be working for the time being anyway.
 
hossblur said:
www.wsj.com

Opinion | Is the Coronavirus as Deadly as They Say?

Current estimates about the Covid-19 fatality rate may be too high by orders of magnitude.
www.wsj.com www.wsj.com

.006

That would be farrrrrrr less than the flu. And for that we enter the depression?
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I can’t read the article you shared, but I’ll just stick with numbers based on current evidence available. You can base your opinion on whatever you want.
 
Founder said:
I can’t read the article you shared, but I’ll just stick with numbers based on current evidence available. You can base your opinion on whatever you want.
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In short. Stanford researchers doing studies off numbers in Italy, US, Iceland.

Basic idea. You don't figure mortality rates by basing them off of only those sick enough to get tested.

In short, based in population #, rate of infections, positive tests and negative tests, they put mortality around .006.

Utah has 547 cases, 1 death. Using the WHO math in Utah Corona virus is .0018 death rate.

But you'd have to believe Utah ONLY has 547 cases. If you figure a 1.5 RO(governors #)Utah has 800ish cases.

John Hopkins says 9x higher than show up to 50x higher.

9x higher thsn 547=4923.

1 death÷4923 = .0002.

And you'd have to believe that the virus hasn't been floating around months.

Since China patient 0 was NOV 17, and 14000 a month flew out of Wuhan to US, it's not hard to believe it was here in December.

We will see real soon, antibody tests come on line next week.
 
The people who need the stimulus check so they can keep sitting on their butts for the next two weeks are one toke away from becoming socialists.

Do you know why the people of WWII are called the greatest generation? There were 2 things they weren't scared of. Dying and hard work. AND THEY COULD DO BOTH AT THE SAME TIME. That was their version of multi-tasking. They didn't run and go hide in their homes hoping to escape some big bad disease. They had really scary diseases back then to. Stuff that makes Kung Flu look like the karate kid. And they didn't have hospitals full of nurses and doctors to run to when they got the sniffles.

Get to work folks. Quit waiting for Ti++s McGee on channel 2 to tell you whether you can go to work or not.
 
mozey said:
The medical people that I work with are telling me that the mortality rate being reported in the media is significantly overstated, which is common for any new disease. We do know what the numerator is, but we currently don't have any good data on what the denominator is because there are many many more cases out there that are not currently being reported, because for the majority of the people the symptoms are mild. How many? Nobody currently knows, but when we do get a better handle on the actual data, we can expect to see the actual mortality rates go down.
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This is what people need to understand. Very well put Mozey! Another question to ponder that's in line with what you're saying: How many people have had it and already recovered without being tested? That would also bring the mortality rate down.
 
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Tristate said:
The people who need the stimulus check so they can keep sitting on their butts for the next two weeks are one toke away from becoming socialists.

Do you know why the people of WWII are called the greatest generation? There were 2 things they weren't scared of. Dying and hard work. AND THEY COULD DO BOTH AT THE SAME TIME. That was their version of multi-tasking. They didn't run and go hide in their homes hoping to escape some big bad disease. They had really scary diseases back then to. Stuff that makes Kung Flu look like the karate kid. And they didn't have hospitals full of nurses and doctors to run to when they got the sniffles.

Get to work folks. Quit waiting for Ti++s McGee on channel 2 to tell you whether you can go to work or not.
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Coming from the guy living in his mom's basement.
 
Yeah, and that means some deaths due to CV were attributed to other causes. The number of decimal places we carry BS to doesn't really matter after we have exceeded the capacity of the medical system.
 
To compare past years flu numbers to covid 19 numbers isn't accurate. We don't quarantine and lock down for the flu. To make a fair comparison We would need to go through an entire season with covid 19 while still going to sporting events and school and church and whatever just living normal life and taking no precautions and then see what those covid numbers would be compared to a full flu season.

China put all affected areas in lock down (much more strict than here) on Jan 23 over 2 months ago to get their numbers under control. If not for any lock down they would be at unreal numbers by now.

In Italy the number of deaths has been doubling approximately every 3 days. That's doubled 5 times since march 9th the day they went into lock down. They are at 7503 total deaths now. They have had more than 1 death for every 10 confirmed cases. They have been locked down since march 9th and the infection rate has started to slow the last couple of days. If they hadn't locked down or done anything and that rate continued, it would only need to double 7 more times to get to 1 million.

Here in the US, our death numbers have doubled closer to every 2 1/2 days since march 15th. we are at 1027 deaths as of now. so we have doubled more than 4 times in 10 days. We are at 1027 deaths now and if we double that 10 more times that would be 1 million. After that 10 more times doubled would be 1 billion.

I'm not saying the numbers would ever get close to that high, but had we done nothing to slow this and every body was living life as normal, things would likely get pretty bad. Our gradual shutdown started with the NBA march 11 and stronger measures the past week should start to have a big effect soon compared to what it would have been with no action.

Our total death numbers are only about 1/5 of Italy's but our recovery numbers are only 619 compared to 10,361 recovered in Italy despite having nearly the same total number of cases. That is because the majority of cases in the US haven't been sick long enough to die or recover yet. that takes 2 to 3 weeks and most here have become sick just this past week.

Below is a graph showing the US death rate from covid. There is no reason to believe that line wouldn't continue in that direction without some actions taken.

20200326_100125.jpg
 
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Zwickey said:
To compare past years flu numbers to covid 19 numbers isn't accurate. We don't quarantine and lock down for the flu. To make a fair comparison We would need to go through an entire season with covid 19 while still going to sporting events and school and church and whatever just living normal life and taking no precautions and then see what those covid numbers would be compared to a full flu season.
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This^^^^^^^^^^^ the best answer about comparing this to the flu I've seen.
 
Roughly 50% of the country gets shot. The vast majority of them are the old and compromised. If you want to be honest, that would at tens of thousands more deaths from flu.



It's not the flu.

But we keep pretending like if we just bubble wrap in the house it will go away. It won't.

So. We have 2 bad choices.

1. You quarantien the most at risk population, and open the economy. People may die.

2. You enter a depression, push unemployment to 20%. People may die.

Our choice is the LEAST bad choice.
 
Unless you or your loved ones are the people who die. Mortality rate for the person who dies is 100%. And their families dont give a damn what your calculations show.

Nobody believes it will go away if you bubble wrap in your house. But it might make it more manageable and some people might not die. Hopefully some of the people who dont die are all of my people.
 
"Unless you or your loved ones are the people who die. Mortality rate for the person who dies is 100%. And their families dont give a damn what your calculations show. "


All the more reason for them not to make decisions for the rest of us.
 
NVBighorn said:
Unless you or your loved ones are the people who die. Mortality rate for the person who dies is 100%. And their families dont give a damn what your calculations show.

Nobody believes it will go away if you bubble wrap in your house. But it might make it more manageable and some people might not die. Hopefully some of the people who dont die are all of my people.
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Public policy is done on the macro.

Yes every death is important. But we can't save every person. Utah lost more people to car wrecks last night than wuhan virus.

Public policy is based on risk vs reward.

3.3 million out of work is the risk right now.
 
1,428 deaths now. That’s a double since posting this thread on Wednesday morning. No slowing yet. Still doubling every 2.5 days or so.
But cases haven’t doubled yet, so that’s good, as cases will slow before deaths do.
 
Founder said:
1,428 deaths now. That’s a double since posting this thread on Wednesday morning. No slowing yet. Still doubling every 2.5 days or so.
But cases haven’t doubled yet, so that’s good, as cases will slow before deaths do.
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Ok? So?
Cases will accelerate until 51% of the population gets tested, repeatedly.

Once 51% of the population has immunity, they will fall. Until then there are more hosts than immune.


How long can you stay holed up?

Honestly. I got about 8-9 months

With zero income, 8-9 months. Is this cured in 8 months? NO.

So then what?
 

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