Am I doing this right?

buckhorn

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Here’s the way I figure the odds to draw a tag in the Utah limited entry bonus point system.
Each bonus point in the draw represents a chance to generate the lowest random number.
Each person that applies also gets an additional chance for their individual application.
In 2020 if you will have eight bonus points for non-resident limited entry deer plus one for your application you will have nine chances to generate the lowest random number. Those nine points are going to compete against all other applicants combined points that are applying for the Oak Creek non res archery hunt.

Using the chart above I did the math and added up all the other bonus points and applicants and I came up with 586 total points. (total chances to draw the lowest random number.) So your odds of pulling the lowest random number for that 1 tag going into 2020 are going to be 1 in 586.
I did deduct the 10 points for the one guy that drew last year.
And that is not including all the new applicants in 2020 with zero points.

The draw odds on that chart are not accurate. Don’t forget you are not competing against the number of individual applications . You are competing against the total number of points all of those individual applications have combined.

If I am not seeing this correctly could someone please tell me where I am making my mistake.
 
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I don’t know what all your rambling on about . I read a little of it. But when their is only one point it is a told random draw. Your points don’t matter.
 
I don’t know what all your rambling on about . I read a little of it. But when their is only one point it is a told random draw. Your points don’t matter.
I’m pretty sure you would be wrong about that.
The guy that drew the above mentioned Hunt had 10 points.
If what you meant was there is not a bonus tag for that hunt then you are correct about that.
 
Yes no bonus tag for max points. Only a random draw. No one has a guarantied draw or tag . Are you getting at that the guy that drew last year had 10 names in the hat. Compared to the person that put in with one point ?
 
When only 1 tag is offered it is a random draw. The computer places that 1 random tag to anyone regardless of points. If that 1 random tag hits your point group, then you are competing with the amount of people who have the same amount of points as you do. There is no way of finding true odds because you never know where that 1 random tag will go.
 
More points in a random gives a better chance for the best draw number.

You could run a Monte Carlo calculation based on how many points there are per applicant to find out the chance of you pulling the best draw number. That could give you an indication if it might be worth your time.
 
"Using the chart above I did the math and added up all the other bonus points and applicants and I came up with 586 total points. (total chances to draw the lowest random number.) So your odds of pulling the lowest random number for that 1 tag going into 2020 are going to be 1 in 586."

This is correct.
For the Bonus Pass side, they sort by point totals, then sort again by applicants lowest random number (within each point group).
In the random side, they sort only by the applicants lowest random number. For the hunt you outlined in the random side, they go up from zero and the lowest random number from all applicants for that hunt code is the one that gets the tag. If there are multiple tags, they go up from zero filling tags until they run out of tags.

The only state that does not go up from zero is Oregon; they have members of the public pick numbered balls to create a "seed number" and the computer goes up from that number to 9,999,999 then cycle back around going up to the seed number.
 
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More points in a random gives a better chance for the best draw number.

You could run a Monte Carlo calculation based on how many points there are per applicant to find out the chance of you pulling the best draw number. That could give you an indication if it might be worth your time.
Thanks roadrunner that is exactly how I see it if a person wants to find the true draw odds in the random round They would need to do that Monte Carlo calculation as you put it.

That Monte Carlo calculation is precisely what I did in the example I gave on the Oak Creek nonresident Archery draw odds. Actually I got the idea to post this from the other thread where BeastN asked the question about the Dutton Oak Creek chances to draw?
 
Yes no bonus tag for max points. Only a random draw. No one has a guarantied draw or tag . Are you getting at that the guy that drew last year had 10 names in the hat. Compared to the person that put in with one point ?
That is sort of what I’m saying but not exactly.
What I am saying is the guy that drew that tag had 10+1 chances at pulling the lowest random number needed to draw that 1 tag.
With all of the other folks and their combined points that were applying for that particular tag there were an additional 586 chances that someone else could have pulled a lower random number and drawn that Tag.
Therefore by my calculations the odds to draw that one tag were 1 in 586.
 
If you had say 10 bonus points (or chances of getting that lowest random number ) then your personal odds would be 586 ÷10 or approx 1 in 60.
At least that's how I thought it worked
 
If you had say 10 bonus points (or chances of getting that lowest random number ) then your personal odds would be 586 ÷10 or approx 1 in 60.
At least that's how I thought it worked

That is how it works! Points count, even in the random draw.
 
That is sort of what I’m saying but not exactly.
What I am saying is the guy that drew that tag had 10+1 chances at pulling the lowest random number needed to draw that 1 tag.
With all of the other folks and their combined points that were applying for that particular tag there were an additional 586 chances that someone else could have pulled a lower random number and drawn that Tag.
Therefore by my calculations the odds to draw that one tag were 1 in 586.

This is a situation where you can spin those numbers any way you want to in order to make any point you want to. But neither you nor the DWR are calculating the actual mathematical odds for each applicant. They do it by dismissing the number of points each of those applicants have and you do it by dismissing the number of applicants who have those points. It takes both!
 
If you had say 10 bonus points (or chances of getting that lowest random number ) then your personal odds would be 586 ÷10 or approx 1 in 60.
At least that's how I thought it worked
I think you would be correct if there were 10 tags available but with just 1 tag?
Last year going into the draw for that hunt there was 597 random numbers to choose from. Wouldn’t that be the number divided by the one Tag?

For this year I deducted the 11 from the guy that drew the tag last year and that’s how I got the 586.
Of course that will change because there will be new applicants coming in applying for that hunt. And some amount of jumping back-and-forth. Just using it as kind of an example.

I never was great at math and I’m having a little trouble wrapping my head around this for sure. That is why I am asking the question. Not to be disagreeable or start any negativity.

My goal here is to understand the true odds of drawing a tag In Utah’s random side of the limited entry point system.

I appreciate all the thoughts and comments on this topic.
 
Here we go
With the help of some of you guys and my son who is a math major and his wife who is a statistics major we came up with this spreadsheet using Google sheets app.
Here is the chart for the above we discussed. The Oak Creek nonresident limited entry archery draw statistics.

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So thanks to you guys I stand corrected.

ridgetops
Sierra
DanMan
elkfromabove
WapitiBob

This spreadsheet can be used for any of the hunts. Just need to enter the proper data.
Hopefully this clears it up for others as well.
 
I think you would be correct if there were 10 tags available but with just 1 tag?
Last year going into the draw for that hunt there was 597 random numbers to choose from. Wouldn’t that be the number divided by the one Tag?

For this year I deducted the 11 from the guy that drew the tag last year and that’s how I got the 586.
Of course that will change because there will be new applicants coming in applying for that hunt. And some amount of jumping back-and-forth. Just using it as kind of an example.

I never was great at math and I’m having a little trouble wrapping my head around this for sure. That is why I am asking the question. Not to be disagreeable or start any negativity.

My goal here is to understand the true odds of drawing a tag In Utah’s random side of the limited entry point system.

I appreciate all the thoughts and comments on this topic.

Again, you are not calculating the number of chances EACH SEPERATE APPLICANT gets to find that lowest number.

Think of it this way. 100 folded pieces of paper, each with a different (unknown to us), random 7 digit number on them, are placed in a hat. I only get one chance to pull out a piece of paper, but you get 10 chances. After we draw, we open up the pieces to see the numbers. So, what were my odds of getting the lowest number? What were yours? Do those odds change depending on who draws first?

Edited: (I don't know the actual odds because we don't know which number ends up being the lowest. But what we do know is that your odds of getting that unknown lowest number are 10 times greater than my odds and that's what actually matters.)

The only deference between my simple scenario above and the Utah big game draw is that there are a whole lot more pieces of paper in a bigger hat and a lot more people pulling out those pieces of paper according to the number of chances each one of them separately gets.
 
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I think I’m getting it dialed in.
Here’s another example. It’s the resident Henry Mountains rifle draw odds. I have eliminated all of the guys that have drawn the bonus tags last year and the ones that are likely to draw the bonus tags this year. My stats. sheet is based off of the DWR draw stats from 2019.
This is my projected draw odds for the remaining apps in the random pass for the Henry’s resident rifle hunt in the 2020 draw.
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buckhorn- So I have been giving this some thought & came up with another variable that no one has mentioned. You are basing your calculations on the applicants draw choices for last year. For myself personally, I will research each and every year. This year specifically my choices changed completely from last year. I say this because for any particular unit others may change their choices from the previous year. I’ve noticed the same from year to year in NV. For any given unit there may be more people that select that unit as their first choice... there may be less. There may be more people with more points than yourself... there may be more people with fewer points. There are so many variables it can make your head hurt.
 
I compared yours to go hunt and go hunt says at 22 points it’s 100 percent draw.
Yes that was true in 2019.
The above chart are my calculations for predicting the odds for the 2020 random pass draw for the Henry Mountains resident rifle hunt.
All the limited entry Hunts can be done this way.
The 2020 Bonus pass round is pretty easy to predict by looking at the 2019 stats page for this hunt. For that reason I have eliminated the bonus pass applicants from last year and the ones I think will draw this year from this chart.

For this particular Hunt:
Last year (2019) all five guys that applied with 22 points drew a bonus tag.
There were 26 applicants with 21 points last year. 6 of those drew the remaining 6 bonus tags leaving 20 applicants with 21points
Those 20 applicants will now have 22 points going into the 2020 draw.
I figured 12 of those 20 guys with 22 points will draw all 12 bonus tags in 2020.
Those above Bonus tag applications are not included in my chart.

So that leaves the 8 remaining 22 point holders and all the applicants below them that will go into the 2020 random pass.
(that’s point creep for you)

Also for the new applicants coming in with zero points in 2020 I used the same number of the new applicants there were in 2019 as an estimate.
I realize that’s a lot of numbers to keep track of but in reality numbers are what we are dealing with here.

I also realize it won’t be 100% accurate because a few guys will jump back-and-forth between other hunt choices but I bet it’s pretty darn consistent with the 2019 stats.
Just a year later and further along on the point creep!
I know all this might seem a bit crazy but I’ve always enjoyed doing this sort of thing and I do have a lot of time on my hands now.
Thanks for taking the time to read and study this.
Thanks for your comment please let me know if there’s anything else you notice that may be incorrect.
 
buckhorn- So I have been giving this some thought & came up with another variable that no one has mentioned. You are basing your calculations on the applicants draw choices for last year. For myself personally, I will research each and every year. This year specifically my choices changed completely from last year. I say this because for any particular unit others may change their choices from the previous year. I’ve noticed the same from year to year in NV. For any given unit there may be more people that select that unit as their first choice... there may be less. There may be more people with more points than yourself... there may be more people with fewer points. There are so many variables it can make your head hurt.
3TOE you are correct there will be some variables by folks jumping back-and-forth from hunt choices.
That would probably have some effect in the bonus pass But I doubt it would change the odds in the random pass much. For example on the Henry mountains hunt used in the example above there were 5197 applicants.
348 of those were new applications last year. I think the variation in the number of new applicants from year to year would be more of a difference than a few guys jumping back-and-forth between hunt choices. A few applicants either way from year to year isn’t going to make much difference in the random pass when you’re looking at that overall amount of applications.
I used to Henry mountains rifle deer hunt first because it is the most popular in the state. If you have any particular hunts you would like to discuss let me know.
Thanks for taking the time to read all my rambling.
 
And then there are the folks who have just been buying points for the last 10 or 15 or 20 years! At some point they are going to want a tag and they'll slip into your group or one of the groups ahead of your group!

In 2019 there were 11,113 residents and 6,799 nonresidents that just bought bull moose points! And that included 331 residents and 51 nonresidents with 20 points or more.

Point creep is happening in the wings as well as on stage! :cry:
 
Yes that was true in 2019.
The above chart are my calculations for predicting the odds for the 2020 random pass draw for the Henry Mountains resident rifle hunt.
All the limited entry Hunts can be done this way.
The 2020 Bonus pass round is pretty easy to predict by looking at the 2019 stats page for this hunt. For that reason I have eliminated the bonus pass applicants from last year and the ones I think will draw this year from this chart.

For this particular Hunt:
Last year (2019) all five guys that applied with 22 points drew a bonus tag.
There were 26 applicants with 21 points last year. 6 of those drew the remaining 6 bonus tags leaving 20 applicants with 21points
Those 20 applicants will now have 22 points going into the 2020 draw.
I figured 12 of those 20 guys with 22 points will draw all 12 bonus tags in 2020.
Those above Bonus tag applications are not included in my chart.

So that leaves the 8 remaining 22 point holders and all the applicants below them that will go into the 2020 random pass.
(that’s point creep for you)

Also for the new applicants coming in with zero points in 2020 I used the same number of the new applicants there were in 2019 as an estimate.
I realize that’s a lot of numbers to keep track of but in reality numbers are what we are dealing with here.

I also realize it won’t be 100% accurate because a few guys will jump back-and-forth between other hunt choices but I bet it’s pretty darn consistent with the 2019 stats.
Just a year later and further along on the point creep!
I know all this might seem a bit crazy but I’ve always enjoyed doing this sort of thing and I do have a lot of time on my hands now.
Thanks for taking the time to read and study this.
Thanks for your comment please let me know if there’s anything else you notice that may be incorrect.

oh alright well I get what you are getting at now. Makes sense. Pretty cool that your doing that you going to do it for all the limited entry units?
 
I have also done the Paunsaugunt Resident and non resident rifle and the Paunsaugunt non resident Muzzy hunts so far.
I have 23 nonresident points for limited entry deer and applied for the Pauns muzzleloader hunt this year.
If all things stay the same I could draw one of the two bonus tags for that hunt.
If I don’t draw a bonus tag my odds in the random pass for the one remaining tag will fall to I in157.

My son is the one that created the spreadsheet and entered the formulas.
All I have to do now for any particular hunt is enter the number of projected applicants in each point category and the amount of tags available for the hunt and the calculations are done automatically.
I could do the same thing for the Nevada hunts but only for the first choice odds.
 
And then there are the folks who have just been buying points for the last 10 or 15 or 20 years! At some point they are going to want a tag and they'll slip into your group or one of the groups ahead of your group!

In 2019 there were 11,113 residents and 6,799 nonresidents that just bought bull moose points! And that included 331 residents and 51 nonresidents with 20 points or more.

Point creep is happening in the wings as well as on stage! :cry:
Yes sir!
When a person really digs into the statistics it’s actually mind boggling how many applicants there are for these hunts.
Especially when you look at the number of new applicants coming into a draw every year. For example the Henry Mountains nonresident rifle that had 415 new applicants last year. Those guys are likely to apply their whole lives and never draw that tag!
The point you made about all of the folks just building bonus points is correct. There are lots of them.
Those guys can and do jump into the draw on any given year. It will likely be the highest point holders that know they’ve got a sure chance at drawing a bonus tag.
For example with my non res deer application I have just enough points to be in the category that should draw a bonus tag. In the last few years there have always been one or two folks that jumped in ahead and drew the bonus tags ahead of my category.
That is actually one of the reasons I started digging deeper into the statistics. I wanted to figure just how bad my odds were in the random pass.
When I started applying for limited entry 23 years ago I never imagined I wouldn’t have drawn by now.
I’m too far in it to quit now. I’m sure I’m not alone!
 
Another thing to consider when looking at this draw odds. Those odds are representing the beginning of the draw. When each one of those tags is drawn out of the quota everyone else’s odds gets worse
 
I have also done the Paunsaugunt Resident and non resident rifle and the Paunsaugunt non resident Muzzy hunts so far.
I have 23 nonresident points for limited entry deer and applied for the Pauns muzzleloader hunt this year.
If all things stay the same I could draw one of the two bonus tags for that hunt.
If I don’t draw a bonus tag my odds in the random pass for the one remaining tag will fall to I in157.

My son is the one that created the spreadsheet and entered the formulas.
All I have to do now for any particular hunt is enter the number of projected applicants in each point category and the amount of tags available for the hunt and the calculations are done automatically.
I could do the same thing for the Nevada hunts but only for the first choice odds.
If it’s not too much to ask, I would be interested to have you run the numbers for desert big horn on a few of the NV units. Let me know & thanks.
 
Yes no problem at all. I’m happy to do it I have plenty of time on my hands now. Just text me the hunts your interested in and I’ll run them for you. I already have the Nevada sheets up and running.
 
If it’s not too much to ask, I would be interested to have you run the numbers for desert big horn on a few of the NV units. Let me know & thanks.
I can send you my top five picks for desert sheep for a Vegas resident if you like?
Do you want to stick with the top-tier units or would you be using a couple of units with better draw odds as your last few choices?
I don’t apply for sheep but my son does apply for Desert and California’s so we pick units a little closer to Reno for his 5 choices.
 
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I can send you my top five picks for desert sheep for a Vegas resident if you like?
Do you want to stick with the top-tier units or would you be using a couple of units with better draw odds as your last few choices?
I don’t apply for sheep but my son does apply for Desert and California’s so we pick units a little closer to Reno for his 5 choices.
Thank you! I just sent you a text.
 
Another thing to consider when looking at this draw odds. Those odds are representing the beginning of the draw. When each one of those tags is drawn out of the quota everyone else’s odds gets worse

I guess that's one way of looking at it, but in reality, the odds don't change because the actual "draw" for EVERY client's lowest number takes place BEFORE each client's lowest number is "evaluated" against all the other clients' lowest numbers. What you call "the draw" is merely the sorting out of the lowest numbers that are already drawn that qualify for permits for each of the hunts.
 
elkfromabove
Yes you are correct.
That is the way I am looking at it also. This chart indicates the probability for each individual application to pull a low enough random number and where that probability would put your odds in the actual draw.
The highest probability to draw a tag would come from the point category that has the largest amount of total random numbers to begin with. Even though each individual applicant would not have as good of probability as each individual higher point holder would have. It’s a matter of total random numbers at that point.
In a way your fate is sealed in the random number selection. Not necessarily in the actual draw.
What I meant by your odds getting worse as the draw goes on is each time one of those tags gets drawn out your chances get lower and lower that there will be a tag left for you to draw.
 
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One more thing to consider specifically for NR's since they can apply for all species. For example in the OIL pool - Based on species draw order, when someone draws a permit from the first species up for draw they are then removed from the remaining OIL draw species. That then actually provides a slight odds improvement to all remaining applicants in the other pools (although extremely minimal).
 
elkfromabove
Yes you are correct.
That is the way I am looking at it also. This chart indicates the probability for each individual application to pull a low enough random number and where that probability would put your odds in the actual draw.
The highest probability to draw a tag would come from the point category that has the largest amount of total random numbers to begin with. Even though each individual applicant would not have as good of probability as each individual higher point holder would have. It’s a matter of total random numbers at that point.
In a way your fate is sealed in the random number selection. Not necessarily in the actual draw.
What I meant by your odds getting worse as the draw goes on is each time one of those tags gets drawn out your chances get lower and lower that there will be a tag left for you to draw.

OK. Like I wrote, that's one way of looking at it.
 
OK. Like I wrote, that's one way of looking at it.
efa
I’ve been giving some more thought to what I think you were trying to tell me. I think I understand what you meant and I agree with you.
The chart I posted is projecting the chance or “odds to draw” for each applicant based on the number of points he has against all the other applicants and their combined points.
It’s the chance or odds of ultimately obtaining a low enough final number to get one of the available tags.
Once the random number selection process is completed and each applicant has their final lowest number assigned, the “draw” for that hunt is actually over.
I think what you were saying to me is that at that point the probability or odds to “draw” will no longer change and then it’s just a matter of assigning “successful” to the folks that wound up with a low enough number to get one of the available tags.
Thanks for your input I appreciate it.
 
efa
I’ve been giving some more thought to what I think you were trying to tell me. I think I understand what you meant and I agree with you.
The chart I posted is projecting the chance or “odds to draw” for each applicant based on the number of points he has against all the other applicants and their combined points.
It’s the chance or odds of ultimately obtaining a low enough final number to get one of the available tags.
Once the random number selection process is completed and each applicant has their final lowest number assigned, the “draw” for that hunt is actually over.
I think what you were saying to me is that at that point the probability or odds to “draw” will no longer change and then it’s just a matter of assigning “successful” to the folks that wound up with a low enough number to get one of the available tags.
Thanks for your input I appreciate it.

You're welcome! It's always good to see things as others might see them. I just wanted to shed some light on how the draw process is actually done. I think you'
 
(Sorry, I'm not really good with computers.)

I meant to say I think you've got the point of my posts. And I also think you've shown that you are, indeed, doing the math right given all the stuff we don't know, ie; how many new applicants apply, how many applicants drop out, how many applicants switch hunts and how many point buyers will finally apply for the hunts. It's still somewhat of a guessing game, but your chart makes it a good educated guess. Thanks for the work!
 
(Sorry, I'm not really good with computers.)

I meant to say I think you've got the point of my posts. And I also think you've shown that you are, indeed, doing the math right given all the stuff we don't know, ie; how many new applicants apply, how many applicants drop out, how many applicants switch hunts and how many point buyers will finally apply for the hunts. It's still somewhat of a guessing game, but your chart makes it a good educated guess. Thanks for the work!
Thank you I appreciate the kind words.It’s something I’m interested in and with all the virus stuff going on this helps pass the time.
I would like to ask another question that I’ve been wondering about.
At the beginning of the random number process how are the random numbers distributed?
Are all the applicants for every hunt in Utah in an original pool when the numbers are assigned?
Or are they distributed separately for each species?
Are they distributed to residents and non-residents separately?
Or are they distributed by individual hunt codes?

Thanks again!
 
Thank you I appreciate the kind words.It’s something I’m interested in and with all the virus stuff going on this helps pass the time.
I would like to ask another question that I’ve been wondering about.
At the beginning of the random number process how are the random numbers distributed?
Are all the applicants for every hunt in Utah in an original pool when the numbers are assigned?
Or are they distributed separately for each species?
Are they distributed to residents and non-residents separately?
Or are they distributed by individual hunt codes?

Thanks again!

Before I answer the question, there are a few things you need to know. 1)- Each application is considered a "group" application. If there is only one applicant. it becomes a group of "one". 2)- There are situations throughout the draw where a new second set of numbers is issued/drawn for an application because it was left over in a previous draw. (It's a bit complicated, but I'll explain it later if you want me to.) 3)- Prior to one day before the draw, the DWR can request that any application be rejected because of wildlife convictions, non-resident status, felony convictions, or ? which would make it ineligible to receive a permit.

Now, for your answer, per the 2019 contract DWR has with Systems Consultants of Fallon NV in the Statement of Work, Task 8 (which is the draw process):

"Each application that can be entered is given a random draw number for the application, and a number for each bonus point, even applications that have been rejected. If members of a group have bonus points, the number of bonus points for the group application is the average of group members rounded down to the nearest whole number. The lowest random number is retained. Separate random numbers are issued for each group application."

So, the answer to your question is that initially all APPLICATIONS for every hunt in Utah are in an original pool when the numbers are assigned.

They are sorted out by resident/nonresident, hunt number and species during the evaluations, but the assigned numbers don't change. Keep in mind that it's the applications that have the different numbers, not the applicant!
 
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Before I answer the question, there are a few things you need to know. 1)- Each application is considered a "group" application. If there is only one applicant. it becomes a group of "one". 2)- There are situations throughout the draw where a new second set of numbers is issued/drawn for an application because it was left over in a previous draw. (It's a bit complicated, but I'll explain it later if you want me to.) 3)- Prior to one day before the draw, the DWR can request that any application be rejected because of wildlife convictions, non-resident status, felony convictions, or ? which would make it ineligible to receive a permit.

Now, for your answer, per the 2019 contract DWR has with Systems Consultants of Fallon NV in the Statement of Work, Task 8 (which is the draw process):

"Each application that can be entered is given a random draw number for the application, and a number for each bonus point, even applications that have been rejected. If members of a group have bonus points, the number of bonus points for the group application is the average of group members rounded down to the nearest whole number. The lowest random number is retained. Separate random numbers are issued for each

So, the answer to your question is that initially all APPLICATIONS for every hunt in Utah are in an original pool when the numbers are assigned.

They are sorted out by resident/nonresident, hunt number and species during the evaluations, but the assigned numbers don't change. Keep in mind that it's the applications that have the different numbers, not the applicant!
Great explanation . I’m impressed with your depth of knowledge on this subject. I feel I now have a good understanding of how the point assignment process works.
there are still a few details I would like clarification on. I could either ask you here or by p.m. or actually I would really like to chat with you by phone if you don’t mind. I will PM you my cell phone number and if you’re OK with it you can call me anytime. I’m staying home all day.
If not I understand no problem.
 
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