Arizona draw help?

[we_B_huntin]

I thought I understood the bonus point system in Arizona but the more I study it the less sure I am.Can a nonresident with little or no bonus points draw an early elk hunt in unit 9 or 10. I know the odds are very slim but is it at all possibe? please explain.

 

[OutdoorWriter]

VERY, VERY, VERY unlikely. Both the lack of points and the 10% NR cap will work against you.

TONY MANDILE

How To Hunt Coues Deer

 

[Bill_in_MI]

LAST EDITED ON Jan-28-13 AT 05:06PM (MST)[p]How about "0" chance...

20% of the total tags by hunt code are given to those (both res and non-res) who have the most points. Since statistically NR's have A LOT of top end double digit ELK bogus points, these bonus-point-tags have been allocated heavily to NR's in that round. Since NR's are now limited to 10% of the tags, that 10% cap is reached during the bonus point round, leaving no tags to be given out to NR's in the remaining draw.

This has been the case for a least 2 years and will likely not change unless a lot of top end NR point holders decide 9 and 10 early archery is 'not worth it', and apply elsewhere. Not likely considering how long they have been waiting...

It's all a matter of learing what the historical max point numbers per hunt are.

Bill

 

[azdogman]

Bill is 100% correct.

 

[BigTom]

Bill summed it up pretty well

I have a question...
If a Res and NR put in together. Is their application look at as a Resident or Non Resident in the 20% pass?

Let me use Unit 9 archery hunt as an example. With 16 points a NR should draw, and with 12 points a Resident should draw. If a resident and NR BPoint average is 13 on their application, will it qualify for the 20% round, or will it be thrown out? if it is thrown out, will it qualify for the general draw?

I am thinking that because of the NR they will not be in the general draw since the NR 10% cap is already met.

so to sum it up. Am I correct in saying that if a Res and NR put in together their ave points must at the NR max point pool status to qualify for the 20% pass?

Clear as mud?

 

[OutdoorWriter]

LAST EDITED ON Jan-29-13 AT 08:28AM (MST)[p]The 20% pass is NOT done per hunt; it is done by species. Only the number of permits in that pass are allotted by hunt #. IOW, the pass starts by looking at ALL max point holders, then it goes to the next level if any permits for ANY hunt unit are still available. It continues that way until they are all gone.

So it's possible, though not likely for elk and especially in Unit 9, that every bonus point total might be considered during the 20% pass until ALL of the permits within the 20% allotment are spoken for.

Lastly, neither the tags or the applications are separated in any way in regards to resident or NR. It's only after a successful draw where it comes into play.

If selected, the res./NR app will indeed be rejected if ALL of the choices on the app have reached the NR 10% quota. At THAT point, it's NR app and the res. will be shut out.


TONY MANDILE

How To Hunt Coues Deer

 

[WapitiBob]

LAST EDITED ON Jan-29-13 AT 12:25PM (MST)[p].

 

[Bill_in_MI]

Straight from the horses mouth: Summary: "Twenty percent of authorized hunt permit-tags in each hunt number for deer, antelope, elk, turkey, javelina, and spring bear may be issued in this pass. Twenty percent of the total authorized hunt permit-tags (all hunt numbers combined) for both bighorn sheep and buffalo may be issued. Although 20 percent are available, the 10% nonresident caps are still in effect."

In my opinion the only way the early 8/9/10 hunts will ever have 2nd draw possibilty is by a significant increasing tag numbers and/or when/if enough NR's in top point pools tire of waiting for these slipping units and begin to burn them on other hunts. Again the reason for tags being heavily allocated to NR's in the bonus round is due to the high percentage of NR's that actualy have the highest point totals. As Don Martin illustrates in his one day hunter ed class, the probability of filling up the 10% NR cap in the 20% draw is high and seems to be spreading to other units.

How does the Big Game Drawing work?
There are 3 phases to the Big Game Drawing ? the Bonus Point Pass, the First-Second Choice Pass, and the Third-Fourth-Fifth Choice Pass. Before each of the three passes in the drawing, each application is processed through a random number generator program. One random number for the application plus an additional random number for each group bonus point (which includes the Hunter Education and Loyalty bonus points) is generated for that application. The lowest random number generated for an application is used in the drawing process. An application receives a new random number for each Pass of the Big Game Draw.

Group Bonus Points occur in the Big Game Draw when 2 to 4 applicants apply on 1 hunt application. Group bonus points are calculated by adding the genus bonus points, loyalty bonus point, and hunter education bonus point for each applicant on an application and dividing that total by the number of applicants. The Department shall use the average number of bonus points accumulated by the individuals in the group, rounded to the nearest whole number. If the average has decimal digits equal to or greater than .5, the total will be rounded to the next higher number otherwise it is rounded down.

When an application is read and the hunt choices are checked for available permits, there must be enough permits available in a hunt choice for all applicants on the application, including non?resident caps; if not, the application is passed and the next one is read.

The Big Game Drawing, including the 20% bonus point pass, will be processed as follows:

First Pass (20% Bonus Point)

Twenty percent of authorized hunt permit-tags in each hunt number for deer, antelope, elk, turkey, javelina, and spring bear may be issued in this pass. Twenty percent of the total authorized hunt permit-tags (all hunt numbers combined) for both bighorn sheep and buffalo may be issued. Although 20 percent are available, the 10% nonresident caps are still in effect.

Each valid application is assigned the lowest random number from those generated for that application.
The application file for each species is sorted by group bonus points in descending sequence and then by random number within the bonus point groupings.
In the Bonus Pass, the first and second hunt choices for all applications with maximum bonus points are looked at first. If permits are still available from the 20% allocation, then the next lower bonus point category is looked at; and so on, until all of the 20% allocation is issued or until all applications with 1 or more bonus points are read. Applications with zero bonus points will not be included in the 20% Bonus Pass of the Draw.

As each application is read, the first and then second hunt choices are checked to see if there are any permits available as part of the 20% bonus point allocation. If there are enough permits available for each applicant on the application without exceeding the 20% allocation or the nonresident cap, the permits are issued to that application. If not, the next application is read and the first and second hunt choices are checked until the entire application file is read. Any un?issued permits from the "bonus point pass" will be returned to the available permits for each hunt. The Drawing will then continue to the next two passes.

Second Pass (1st and 2nd Hunt Choices)

For all valid applications which were unsuccessful in the bonus point pass, new random numbers are generated for each application with the lowest random number being assigned to the application. The same random number process as described above is used.
The valid application file for each species is then sorted in random number sequence only.
The first valid application (with the lowest random number) is read, checking the first and then the second hunt choices for available hunt permit-tags. If there are enough hunt permit-tags available for either of the choices and for each applicant on the application, without exceeding the nonresident cap when applicable, then the hunt permit-tags are issued. The next valid application in random number sequence is then checked for available hunt permit-tags until the entire file is read.

 

[OutdoorWriter]

LAST EDITED ON Jan-30-13 AT 07:23AM (MST)[p]>>In my opinion the only way the early 8/9/10 hunts will ever have 2nd draw <<

There will ALWAYS be a 2nd draw for EVERY unit, though NRs may not get any of the permits if the cap is reached in the 20% pass, which will likely happen for the units listed.

I don't have time this morning, but maybe later today I'll put together a small hypothetical draw with some numbers and examples of how the 20% pass works.

TONY MANDILE

How To Hunt Coues Deer

 

[sticksender]

Most of the mystery is finally being removed from the NR elk draw. Now that various groups have been obtaining additional unpublished data from AZGFD, it's less of a secret which hunts are available outside the bonus pass. Last year out of the 26 early archery hunt codes, less than half issued random tags to NR. And scant few of those were the highest-demand tags. One thing to keep in mind though, with over 400 early archery elk tags being added this year, the draw might shake a little looser.

 

[WapitiBob]

It's my understanding that huntin fool has published those hunts that had NR tags remaining after the Bonus pass draw. I also listed those hunts a cpl years ago and then realized the mistake I made.
Most of those hunts had fewer than 10 tags drop down to the 1-2 pass. By publishing those specific hunts, it will only take applicants the same number of years as the max pool, to fill those hunts with additional NR applicants and lock up those units as well.
I'm not sure there's a right or wrong answer when people ask about those hunts. If you help, are you contributing to the problem?

 

[huntazido]

Knowledge is power.

I know we would all like to help our fellow hunters out but sometimes it is better just not to say anything. Especially when it comes to AZ's draw.

For a NR, Bob seems to be the most knowledgable guy I know about AZ's NR draw. However, much of the information he is/has given out has only hurt his chances of getting drawn. I have read many of his posts in dismay while scratching my head.

As a resident, I don't have to deal with the 10% rule. If I was a NR I'm not sure if I would be willing to help so many others with the draw. Might have to do a little soul searching on that one? For NR's sake, I hope hunting fool is not publishing the list of units that have NR tags still available after 20% pass.

Good Luck & happy hunting

 

[azdogman]

LAST EDITED ON Jan-30-13 AT 05:20PM (MST)[p]LAST EDITED ON Jan-30-13 AT 05:18?PM (MST)

Outdoorwriter. Isnt the 20% pass done per hunt number. Not species

 

[tmbr_hntr]

LAST EDITED ON Jan-30-13 AT 05:32PM (MST)[p]Have to agree with huntazido. All the info is out there for anyone willing to just put in a little time. It would be nice if people did not feel the need to be the know it all guy all the time. Just hurts all of us who actually do put in the time and effort doing research. Especially when people are sharing info on areas they don't even hunt or intend to hunt.

 

[Bill_in_MI]

LAST EDITED ON Jan-30-13 AT 08:21PM (MST)[p]Outdoorwriter

This is what I said, "In my opinion the only way the early 8/9/10 hunts will ever have 2nd draw possibility is by a significant increasing tag numbers and/or when/if enough NR's in top point pools tire of waiting for these slipping units and begin to burn them on other hunts." This is obviously in the context of whether a NR has an opportunity in the draws after the Bonus point pass. Not sure what the semantic lesson is about...obviously the draw continues after the 10% cap is reached...

Regarding the rest of whether this is a taboo topic...do unto others as you would have them do unto to you...It was eye opening when explained to me. I felt foolish thinking as I did before. This information has, is, and will continue to be coming out in more detail from all the traditional draw expert sources.

The cold reality of this draw monster, is that contrary to popular belief, AZ is becoming a preference point state. As the masses spread out, more units will fall into what the big 4 early archery have become. This reality may put off many from staying in or ever getting on board. Perhaps this will cause AZG&F to reconsider what they've created. Let's face it, people only apply because they think they have a chance, albeit a small chance, of winning. If the trend continues, then that illusion should be exposed.

 

[OutdoorWriter]

LAST EDITED ON Jan-31-13 AT 09:09AM (MST)[p]>Outdoorwriter. Isnt the 20% <
>pass done per hunt number.<
> Not species <

NO!! In fact, when the apps are shuffled and given a number, they have no idea what the hunt choices are or whether the applicant is a res. or NR. That isn't determined until an application is selected during any of the draw phases.

The permits that go INTO the BP are included by Hunt number, but all thrown together for the BP pass. IOW, if a unit has 100 total permits, 20 are allocated to the BP pass. One that has 500, will have 100 in the 20% BP pass. So after all of the permits are allocated by hunt number, the BP pass will have all of them included, even for the least desirable hunts.

Thus, for the 2013 general, muzzleloader and archery hunts, there are a total of 16,553 permits and 20% or 3,310 will be allocated to the BP pass. (I didn't include the CHAMP, JR. or Limited Opportunity hunts for simplicity.)


Step 1 for the BP draw:

EVERY application that has at least ONE bonus point will be included in the BP pass. They then assign random numbers to each application. If an application has 10 BPs, it gets 10 numbers, plus a number for the app, but ONLY the lowest number of the bunch is used for the actual draw. No matter how many people are on the app, only one final number is assigned after generating the those for the average BPs represented on that application. THEY DO NOT SEPARATE the apps by hunts choices or Res./NR at all!

Step 2:

They first look at the group of applications with the MOST BPs by starting with the one that has the lowest number, and so on and so forth. Since there are permits for EVERY hunt in the total allocated to the 20% pass, this application will automatically get whatever is listed as 1st choice. They continue through the list until ALL of those with the MAX BP are checked.

Obviously, a LOT of the prime permits will be doled out here for anyone who has one of them listed as a 1st or 2nd choice, but there will still be a BUNCH of permits left in the 20% pass.

For example purposes, let's say 210 permits went to the max point holders. Likely, those alloocated to the BP round for the most prime hunts will be all gone, as well. But that means there are still 3,100 permits available in the 20% pass. So now, they go to the next group with the most BPs and basically repeat the above.

They will continue this process until either none of the 3,310 permits are left or there are no more BP holders for those permits that are left. If permits remain, which is often the case for less desirable hunts (antlerless, etc.), they go back into the 1-2 pass.

Once the 20% draw is done, all the applications are reshuffled and renumbered, again using the BPs to determine how many numbers a specific app generates. The lowest generated number is given to each app; those with no BP get only one number. Again, there is NO separation by hunt choices or Res./NR.

Now, they simply go through the list of EVERY application, starting with LOWEST number first. Anyone who has a 1st or 2nd choice listed for any of the remaining permits as the list dwindles further will get one. This process will continue until they either go through the entire list of apps or all of the elk permits are gone.

TONY MANDILE

How To Hunt Coues Deer

 

[OutdoorWriter]

Bill,

Understand now. I misread what you were saying.

TONY MANDILE

How To Hunt Coues Deer

 

[we_B_huntin]

Thanks for the info. Special thanks to Bill and Tony for spending so much time explaining the draw to me. I have spent a lot of time trying to figure it out. I've looked through the regs and online and can't find this info. I have made several calls to AZGFD and couldn't get a good explanation. Now I finally understand it.
Thanks again.

 

[OutdoorWriter]

we_B_huntin,

Glad to help. I've been writing about this stuff for a few decades, so have most of it engraved on my brain. ;-)

Here are the URLs for the AGFD's explanations:

Bonus Point
http://www.azgfd.gov/eservices/BonusPointProcess.shtml

Drawing
http://www.azgfd.gov/eservices/BigGameDrawingProcess.shtml




TONY MANDILE

How To Hunt Coues Deer

 

[we_B_huntin]

Thanks again Tony you've been very helpful. I think I completely understand it now. By the way your buddy Duwane stopped by our camp this year in 36B and we fed him a steak and had a nice visit.

 

[OutdoorWriter]

>Thanks again Tony you've been very
>helpful. I think I completely
>understand it now. By the
>way your buddy Duwane stopped
>by our camp this
>year in 36B and we
>fed him a steak and
>had a nice visit.

Aahaa, you were in my favorite Coues unit. Let me know where you will camped next year so I can come down for dinner one night. ;-)


TONY MANDILE

How To Hunt Coues Deer

 

[we_B_huntin]

If we draw I'll let you let you know. Looking forward to seeing you.