LAST EDITED ON Jan-16-15 AT 03:39AM (MST)[p]I have posted this on some other places and sites, but here is where the points are at going into 2015.
You might be surprised, as I was, at the number of NR sportsmen who have LOTS of bonus points, and with the state law mandated 10% cap, just how low the odds really are for those seeking premium muzzleloader or early rifle tags who are in what I call for the lack of a better term, "No Man's Land."
I'll start at 13 and go up from there since that is where Jeff is at.
13 Resident 296 NR 424
14 Resident 254 NR 316
15 Resident 201 NR 270
16 Resident 160 NR 234
17 Resident 113 NR 174
18 Resident 108 NR 99
19 Resident 55 NR 75
20 Resident 25 NR 45
21 Resident 15 NR 15
22 Resident 3 NR 3
23 Resident 0 NR 1
24 Resident 1 NR 0
25 Resident 0 NR 1
Now granted, MOST of those top bonus point holders (21-25) are most likely putting in for just early rifle tags, and while it it doesn't take nearly that many points to draw an archery tag, even in the better units, it is amazing to me just how many folks, resident and non-resident alike, who have 15 or more elk points in Arizona!
With the proposed split of tags for the non-residents in the top pool (G&F is proposing a 5% for the top bonus point holders, with the other 5% of available tags to be put in the general draw)this just MIGHT be the year that those listed here should maybe consider some different draw strategies...
I sure don't see you NR's with 13-19 points who are applying for those very limited rifle/muzzleloader bull tags doing well this year..
I think those NR's who are in the 20 and above pools are the ones who will draw MOST of those premium tags in 2015 and here is why.
For early rifle, if my count is correct, there will be about 264
early rifle tags issued for 8 different units in Arizona.
Another 153 early MUZZLELOADER tags will also be issued in 6 units.
That total is 417, and is just for rifle/muzzleloader.
IF NR's get a full 10% this year of those premium tags, that is what, 42 tags? 65 NR sportsmen have 20 or more bonus points. Add in another 75 sportsmen who have 19 points and who you know are probably applying for only premium tags.
That's what I see; I may be wrong on the calculations and assumptions, jump in if you got a different take on this.
Don Martin
Arizona Wildlife Outfitters
Unit 6A Muzzleloader bull. This is why I don't apply for bull tags anymore! You boys fight over them and good luck!