LAST EDITED ON Feb-07-08 AT 03:02PM (MST)[p]To answer the original question first, I'm guessing around 12 bonus points.
Now, I'm not saying residents will draw all the tags Goldhunter, I'm just saying its possible for one tag to pass to the general draw for non-residents, for deer included. This is even more probable for elk due to more residents with higher BP's than NR's. I have 11 this year for elk, and I don't even think I'll draw my archery bull tag this year with 11 as a resident!
I agree with you Don, it hasn't happened with deer yet since the 20% pass change, but it can. Its important to think about how we spread this word of draw odds though and its impact so here's my stab at it:
I did the math for deer, and I'm finding about a:
1 in 1300 chance
that one tag could pass through to the general pool for nonresidents deer. Not likely, but not unrealistic either. This is assuming that every single max piont holder applied all for same tag in 13B only, which is conservative.
I assumed that there were 16 tags for simplicity and to make it an even 8 and 8 split (17 last year for 13B). I also assumed that the drawing outcome would be approx. 30% residents and 70% for the first 10 tags. This is very realistic, and would mean 3 and 10 tags respectively. Then residents would need to draw all the remaining 6 tags, to be lopsided 9 vs. 7, and let one tag pass through. It doesn't have to happen in this exact order, since drawing 9 of 16 tags at .31% representation comes to 1 in 1100 odds. These are both more realistic estimates than any I have seen yet so I wanted it to be known. These odds were better that one tag will fall through to nonresidents in the general pass draw for deer, than I will draw either of the out of state sheep tags or raffles that I apply for every year! Think about that and what statements like "you have almost no chance" really mean, should I not apply for these tags since I have "no chance"?
I just wanted to put things into perspective for those telling nonresidents not to apply and they have no chance. NR's are usually going to draw 10% of the tags no matter in what pass, so its not going to affect my draw odds as a resident or yours, only theirs. Why not tell them to apply if they want, just they have a small chance and give some hope with more realistic numbers and let them make the choice! It only helps our state wildlife and that is what the money is ultimately for. I encourage all nonresidents to apply for any tag they wish (because are limited to 10%); they help the local economy and pay good money for their tags and license fees. I think more people need to think about how they spread word of negativity.
By the way, I bet I'll have 12 points for elk next year, and I apply for archery tags!