S
showgun
Guest
Will it be this week fellas? Im thinking maybe Wednesday by 5. What does everybody else think? What was the date last year? Come-on somebody knows.....
L
LawDawg
Guest
RE: AZ draw
Yeah M1Fan, looks like I'm pretty much in the same boat. Don't really expect to draw 12AW late going in with 9 NR points.At least I'll add another B.P. Then hopefully go over this coming winter and take the H.E. course and add the permanent B.P.and cross my fingers for '09. Good Luck to the rest of you out there anxiuosly waiting for the last hoorahh!! LawDawg
Yeah M1Fan, looks like I'm pretty much in the same boat. Don't really expect to draw 12AW late going in with 9 NR points.At least I'll add another B.P. Then hopefully go over this coming winter and take the H.E. course and add the permanent B.P.and cross my fingers for '09. Good Luck to the rest of you out there anxiuosly waiting for the last hoorahh!! LawDawg
S
sndvls
Guest
RE: AZ draw
almost positive it was the 18th, last year.
almost positive it was the 18th, last year.
2
264X300
Guest
RE: AZ draw
I spoke to AZGFD guys last Saturday at the range and they said that they were trying for mid week. I predicted today some time ago, but I guess I was wrong.
Sure would like to know so I can plan the rest of my hunting seasons.
Seems that when they released the elk / antelope info they loaded the phone side first and then the internet. Just called the AZGFD number (602 942-3000 #2) at 1:24 PM local time and the results are still not available.
Oh well, soon I hope.
264X300
I spoke to AZGFD guys last Saturday at the range and they said that they were trying for mid week. I predicted today some time ago, but I guess I was wrong.
Sure would like to know so I can plan the rest of my hunting seasons.
Seems that when they released the elk / antelope info they loaded the phone side first and then the internet. Just called the AZGFD number (602 942-3000 #2) at 1:24 PM local time and the results are still not available.
Oh well, soon I hope.
264X300
D
dodge98
Guest
RE: AZ draw
I guess we will all sit with our fingers crossed!!!!!!!!!!!!!
I guess we will all sit with our fingers crossed!!!!!!!!!!!!!
M
mesquitehunter
Guest
RE: AZ draw
It's driving me crazy thinking about it.
It's driving me crazy thinking about it.
M
mesquitehunter
Guest
RE: AZ draw
I just checked on the internet and nothing yet
I just checked on the internet and nothing yet
fisrtcoueswas80inches
Very Active Member
- Messages
- 1,648
RE: AZ draw
I am thinking tomorrow, and I had that as my guess for quite a while. We will see!
Come on Coues tag!
I am thinking tomorrow, and I had that as my guess for quite a while. We will see!
Come on Coues tag!
DonMartin
Very Active Member
- Messages
- 2,077
RE: AZ draw
LawDawg:
Got some REAL BAD NEWS for you! You are NOT going to draw any of the late PREMIUM deer tags with 9 or even 10 points!
With the 20% pass rule in place for those with MAX bonus points, and with the 10% NR cap, you WILL NOT and CAN NOT draw a tag!
Just do the math!
All the NR tags for 13A, 13B, 12A West (Late) 12A East (Late) and 12B (Late) go to those with max points. There are just over 200 NR who had max points (11) going into this year's draw.
Now if you're good with a 12A West (early) or 12A East (early) or a 12B (early) tag, then you got a shot, but not at the premium late tags.
I'm teaching a one-day NR AZ Hunter Ed class on January 10, 2009 here in Kingman and you come on over and take it. I'll have the draw stats by then and will show you how it happens every year.
Lots of other places to apply for deer in AZ. But brother you are out of the game for those premium hunts.
Sorry,
Don Martin
LawDawg:
Got some REAL BAD NEWS for you! You are NOT going to draw any of the late PREMIUM deer tags with 9 or even 10 points!
With the 20% pass rule in place for those with MAX bonus points, and with the 10% NR cap, you WILL NOT and CAN NOT draw a tag!
Just do the math!
All the NR tags for 13A, 13B, 12A West (Late) 12A East (Late) and 12B (Late) go to those with max points. There are just over 200 NR who had max points (11) going into this year's draw.
Now if you're good with a 12A West (early) or 12A East (early) or a 12B (early) tag, then you got a shot, but not at the premium late tags.
I'm teaching a one-day NR AZ Hunter Ed class on January 10, 2009 here in Kingman and you come on over and take it. I'll have the draw stats by then and will show you how it happens every year.
Lots of other places to apply for deer in AZ. But brother you are out of the game for those premium hunts.
Sorry,
Don Martin
DonMartin
Very Active Member
- Messages
- 2,077
RE: AZ draw
Mike:
Good question...There were 50 permits, so assuming you are a NR we know that a max of 5 permits can be issued to NR under the 10% rule.
However under the 20% pass rule that means that those sportsmen with max bonus points (and who knows, maybe 8 is that magic number!) will get the first 10 tags.
So, If I were guessing--and this is only a WAG, I'd say you might have a chance. Not knowing how many other NR's with a bunch of points like you applied for the same tag is the real unknown in this equation.
If you were a resident, I'd say you have a GREAT chance to draw!
My lady friend applied for the same tag, and she's got just three points, but as a resident she always has a CHANCE!
You know, when I ordered the list of lucky deer permittees this year I forgot to order for that hunt, so I won't get the data to find out exactly what happened.
Don't know how many hardcore muzzleloader hunters are out there so this is just a crap shoot as to what will happen this year for that particular hunt.
No matter though, good luck!
Don Martin
Mike:
Good question...There were 50 permits, so assuming you are a NR we know that a max of 5 permits can be issued to NR under the 10% rule.
However under the 20% pass rule that means that those sportsmen with max bonus points (and who knows, maybe 8 is that magic number!) will get the first 10 tags.
So, If I were guessing--and this is only a WAG, I'd say you might have a chance. Not knowing how many other NR's with a bunch of points like you applied for the same tag is the real unknown in this equation.
If you were a resident, I'd say you have a GREAT chance to draw!
My lady friend applied for the same tag, and she's got just three points, but as a resident she always has a CHANCE!
You know, when I ordered the list of lucky deer permittees this year I forgot to order for that hunt, so I won't get the data to find out exactly what happened.
Don't know how many hardcore muzzleloader hunters are out there so this is just a crap shoot as to what will happen this year for that particular hunt.
No matter though, good luck!
Don Martin
B
bbgellerman
Guest
RE: AZ draw
The phone message changed...............no results though......
The phone message changed...............no results though......
RE: AZ draw
JFI i spoke to my contact at the g&f and I was told taht they are cleaing up the apps. Looking for duplicate applicants etc. People try and beat the odds by applying twice or even 3 times to get more opps to draw. burns me up, so they have to hand sort them and put them into the data base kick out any dupes so then after that they start the draw process. I dont think we will know before the 1st of August. But Im nt always right, determining the draw results is like being a weather caster for the monsoon season here. you never know when it will happen it just kinda surprises you. LOL. Good luck folks.
Bugler.
JFI i spoke to my contact at the g&f and I was told taht they are cleaing up the apps. Looking for duplicate applicants etc. People try and beat the odds by applying twice or even 3 times to get more opps to draw. burns me up, so they have to hand sort them and put them into the data base kick out any dupes so then after that they start the draw process. I dont think we will know before the 1st of August. But Im nt always right, determining the draw results is like being a weather caster for the monsoon season here. you never know when it will happen it just kinda surprises you. LOL. Good luck folks.
Bugler.
P
Phinkle
Guest
RE: AZ draw
>JFI i spoke to my contact
>at the g&f and I
>was told taht they are
>cleaing up the apps. Looking
>for duplicate applicants etc. People
>try and beat the odds
>by applying twice or even
>3 times to get more
>opps to draw. burns me
>up, so they have to
>hand sort them and put
>them into the data base
>kick out any dupes so
>then after that they start
>the draw process. I dont
>think we will know before
>the 1st of August. But
>Im nt always right, determining
>the draw results is like
>being a weather caster for
>the monsoon season here. you
>never know when it will
>happen it just kinda surprises
>you. LOL. Good luck folks.
>
>Bugler.
I would think that the computer system they use would kick out any apps that have duplicate SSN#'s on them or Hunter ID's on them. Its funny how everyone knows somebody and everyone gets a different story. I have now heard that the draw has been completed, that the draw is complete but they have not loaded anything yet, they are double checking the load, and now they are still going through apps. Ugh....this is driving me insane. Need to stop reading this stuff.
>JFI i spoke to my contact
>at the g&f and I
>was told taht they are
>cleaing up the apps. Looking
>for duplicate applicants etc. People
>try and beat the odds
>by applying twice or even
>3 times to get more
>opps to draw. burns me
>up, so they have to
>hand sort them and put
>them into the data base
>kick out any dupes so
>then after that they start
>the draw process. I dont
>think we will know before
>the 1st of August. But
>Im nt always right, determining
>the draw results is like
>being a weather caster for
>the monsoon season here. you
>never know when it will
>happen it just kinda surprises
>you. LOL. Good luck folks.
>
>Bugler.
I would think that the computer system they use would kick out any apps that have duplicate SSN#'s on them or Hunter ID's on them. Its funny how everyone knows somebody and everyone gets a different story. I have now heard that the draw has been completed, that the draw is complete but they have not loaded anything yet, they are double checking the load, and now they are still going through apps. Ugh....this is driving me insane. Need to stop reading this stuff.
B
bbgellerman
Guest
RE: AZ draw
"People try and beat the odds by applying twice or even 3 times to get more opps to draw."
Please tell me you are not eligible to get a tag if you pull this trick. Otherwise, thats a great idea!
"People try and beat the odds by applying twice or even 3 times to get more opps to draw."
Please tell me you are not eligible to get a tag if you pull this trick. Otherwise, thats a great idea!
H
Heat
Guest
RE: AZ draw
All these posts about their "source" at Game and Fish crack me up. Year after year we hear about people's inside scoop and I haven't heard a single one be right yet. So far this year I've heard 3 people say they have the scoop and they're all different.
Unless your "source" is Harry Seck, or someone that works in the draw room, thier guess is probably no better than mine or yours or anybody else's.
This is just like when you ask 3 different WM's about an interpretation of the regs and get 3 different answers. Not all of them are on the same page at all. Half of these guys work out of their houses, so it's not like they're peeking in the draw room to see where things are at.
Nick
All these posts about their "source" at Game and Fish crack me up. Year after year we hear about people's inside scoop and I haven't heard a single one be right yet. So far this year I've heard 3 people say they have the scoop and they're all different.
Unless your "source" is Harry Seck, or someone that works in the draw room, thier guess is probably no better than mine or yours or anybody else's.
This is just like when you ask 3 different WM's about an interpretation of the regs and get 3 different answers. Not all of them are on the same page at all. Half of these guys work out of their houses, so it's not like they're peeking in the draw room to see where things are at.
Nick
M
maddglasser
Guest
RE: AZ draw
I called and they said they would be up at the least by late fall!
Travis
I called and they said they would be up at the least by late fall!
Travis
M
maddglasser
Guest
RE: AZ draw
I also talked to T-Bone (inelegentvernonboy) and he said they would probably be up by the end of January. So I think it's anybody's guess now!
Travis
I also talked to T-Bone (inelegentvernonboy) and he said they would probably be up by the end of January. So I think it's anybody's guess now!
Travis
RE: AZ draw
You know whats really funny? All the posts this year on this and other sites claiming the results wont be out till August, right before archery deer, etc. The apps were due the same time in June as they have been for a very long time. They now have two less species to draw for. It will be before August. People need to chill out.
There is no way in hell they are still sorting through applications trying to throw out duplicates. Your source is pulling your leg.
I love sitting back and watching all this. Its better than the comedy channel.
It's Bush's fault!!!
You know whats really funny? All the posts this year on this and other sites claiming the results wont be out till August, right before archery deer, etc. The apps were due the same time in June as they have been for a very long time. They now have two less species to draw for. It will be before August. People need to chill out.
There is no way in hell they are still sorting through applications trying to throw out duplicates. Your source is pulling your leg.
I love sitting back and watching all this. Its better than the comedy channel.
It's Bush's fault!!!
I
isayNUNYA
Guest
RE: AZ draw
My contact said I more than likely would be getting a refund some time in aug.
Actually I really don't have a contact I was just trying to look cool. Anyway I should be getting a refund sometime in Aug.
---------------------------------------
"I needed a cheesy signature saying like everyone else"
My contact said I more than likely would be getting a refund some time in aug.
Actually I really don't have a contact I was just trying to look cool. Anyway I should be getting a refund sometime in Aug.
---------------------------------------
"I needed a cheesy signature saying like everyone else"
L
LawDawg
Guest
RE: AZ draw
Hey Don, thanks for the run down. I pretty much knew I didn't have much of a chance to draw the late hunt but I felt I needed to put something other than a point only # in just to make myself feel better due to my Daughter scheduling of all things a FALL Wedding !!! I knew it would at least guarantee me a B.P. I've already marked my calendar for the one day N.R. H.E. course then maybe I can get an idea of what 12 nr elk points might do for me. Thanks again.
Hey Don, thanks for the run down. I pretty much knew I didn't have much of a chance to draw the late hunt but I felt I needed to put something other than a point only # in just to make myself feel better due to my Daughter scheduling of all things a FALL Wedding !!! I knew it would at least guarantee me a B.P. I've already marked my calendar for the one day N.R. H.E. course then maybe I can get an idea of what 12 nr elk points might do for me. Thanks again.
tcinkgm
Member
- Messages
- 81
RE: AZ draw
LAST EDITED ON Jul-18-08 AT 00:02AM (MST)[p]while Don is statistically close, the tags do not go to the max point holders, they simply have a weighted chance in BP draw that ups the odds...it is not Colorado and AZ does not have a preference system, everybody does have a chance if the draw is done the way that G&F publishes the process...albeit a very slim one.
LAST EDITED ON Jul-18-08 AT 00:02AM (MST)[p]while Don is statistically close, the tags do not go to the max point holders, they simply have a weighted chance in BP draw that ups the odds...it is not Colorado and AZ does not have a preference system, everybody does have a chance if the draw is done the way that G&F publishes the process...albeit a very slim one.
goldhunter
Active Member
- Messages
- 434
RE: AZ draw
Don isn't statistically close - he is exactly close. You have ZERO chance in the Strip hunts and other high demand hunts if you are a NR and are off max points. That is unless you are thinking every other NR has applied through Cabelas and they send them all to the wrong address again.
Don isn't statistically close - he is exactly close. You have ZERO chance in the Strip hunts and other high demand hunts if you are a NR and are off max points. That is unless you are thinking every other NR has applied through Cabelas and they send them all to the wrong address again.
I
inelligentvernonboy
Guest
RE: AZ draw
The thing is with donny boys negatifity no won wood wanna be huntin. Tell ya the truth that north desert "the strip" is way overrated. Remember yous always has a chance always, don't let donny boy tell ya otherwise.
By the way, I did up and talk with a buddy o mine in A.J. over a beer who has a feller he knows that knows won o the fellers, whos uncle know some one who works the draw and has an inside look at the prosess. Now he figgers that them draw results 'll be up next cuppl o days meanin either end o this week or into next. So we's gonna know were we huntin reel soon boys, reel soon.
Good luck to ya'll.
May dixie live in our harts always.
T-bone
The thing is with donny boys negatifity no won wood wanna be huntin. Tell ya the truth that north desert "the strip" is way overrated. Remember yous always has a chance always, don't let donny boy tell ya otherwise.
By the way, I did up and talk with a buddy o mine in A.J. over a beer who has a feller he knows that knows won o the fellers, whos uncle know some one who works the draw and has an inside look at the prosess. Now he figgers that them draw results 'll be up next cuppl o days meanin either end o this week or into next. So we's gonna know were we huntin reel soon boys, reel soon.
Good luck to ya'll.
May dixie live in our harts always.
T-bone
H
Heat
Guest
RE: AZ draw
>LAST EDITED ON Jul-18-08
>AT 00:02?AM (MST)
>
>while Don is statistically close, the
>tags do not go to
>the max point holders, they
>simply have a weighted chance
>in BP draw that ups
>the odds...it is not Colorado
>and AZ does not have
>a preference system, everybody does
>have a chance if the
>draw is done the way
>that G&F publishes the process...albeit
>a very slim one.
Hey bro, ever heard of the 20% bonus point pass drawing? Try reading ALL of the regs before you start trying to discredit someone who clearly is much more informed about the topic!
>LAST EDITED ON Jul-18-08
>AT 00:02?AM (MST)
>
>while Don is statistically close, the
>tags do not go to
>the max point holders, they
>simply have a weighted chance
>in BP draw that ups
>the odds...it is not Colorado
>and AZ does not have
>a preference system, everybody does
>have a chance if the
>draw is done the way
>that G&F publishes the process...albeit
>a very slim one.
Hey bro, ever heard of the 20% bonus point pass drawing? Try reading ALL of the regs before you start trying to discredit someone who clearly is much more informed about the topic!
M
mesquitehunter
Guest
RE: AZ draw
LAST EDITED ON Jul-18-08 AT 12:13PM (MST)[p]Hey T-Bone glad to have you back. I've been bored without you here. Now I got somebody to pick on ....LOL.....Oh yeah I checked out your profile and it states your name starts with a "C". So is your name Cletus.
LAST EDITED ON Jul-18-08 AT 12:13PM (MST)[p]Hey T-Bone glad to have you back. I've been bored without you here. Now I got somebody to pick on ....LOL.....Oh yeah I checked out your profile and it states your name starts with a "C". So is your name Cletus.
RE: AZ draw
Hey all i was trying to do was shed light on it. I could care less what you think. I work for the state and have pretty good access to a few things, The "contact" I have works in the office and is reliable. I wont bother next time yall can just wait it out arguing etc.
They do have to go over them by hand after they have been entered into the computer it still takes a human being to check, they dont have an automanted system to kick out dupes. And if there is a dupe they leave one in and yes they are allowed to be in the draw with "one" app.
Like I said, next time anyone asks a question I think i will just tell em piss off. That is why I left this site along time ago too many schmucks callin people names for trying to help out. Later.
Hey all i was trying to do was shed light on it. I could care less what you think. I work for the state and have pretty good access to a few things, The "contact" I have works in the office and is reliable. I wont bother next time yall can just wait it out arguing etc.
They do have to go over them by hand after they have been entered into the computer it still takes a human being to check, they dont have an automanted system to kick out dupes. And if there is a dupe they leave one in and yes they are allowed to be in the draw with "one" app.
Like I said, next time anyone asks a question I think i will just tell em piss off. That is why I left this site along time ago too many schmucks callin people names for trying to help out. Later.
M
maddglasser
Guest
RE: AZ draw
I don't think anybody was attacking you Bugler. Hell, I just we were passing time! Sorry if I offended you bud.
I don't think anybody was attacking you Bugler. Hell, I just we were passing time! Sorry if I offended you bud.
K
KaibabHntr
Guest
RE: AZ draw
I just checked online, FRI, 12:25 AZ time and they're up. I only purchased bonus points this year and its showing them...good luck!
I just checked online, FRI, 12:25 AZ time and they're up. I only purchased bonus points this year and its showing them...good luck!
R
redrabbit
Guest
RE: AZ draw
Species Application: DEER
Status: NOT DRAWN
Species Application: DEER
Status: NOT DRAWN
M
mesquitehunter
Guest
RE: AZ draw
Hunt # 1168 here ...Unit 39 thru 42 muzzy......It's gonna be great...
Hunt # 1168 here ...Unit 39 thru 42 muzzy......It's gonna be great...
S
showgun
Guest
RE: AZ draw
12B tags for us. Two years in a row... WOW
12B tags for us. Two years in a row... WOW
Buxndiverdux
Active Member
- Messages
- 139
RE: AZ draw
Congrats Troy!
Congrats Troy!
RE: AZ draw
>>LAST EDITED ON Jul-18-08
>>AT 00:02?AM (MST)
>>
>>while Don is statistically close, the
>>tags do not go to
>>the max point holders, they
>>simply have a weighted chance
>>in BP draw that ups
>>the odds...it is not Colorado
>>and AZ does not have
>>a preference system, everybody does
>>have a chance if the
>>draw is done the way
>>that G&F publishes the process...albeit
>>a very slim one.
>
>
>Hey bro, ever heard of the
>20% bonus point pass drawing?
> Try reading ALL of
>the regs before you start
>trying to discredit someone who
>clearly is much more informed
>about the topic!
Sorry to say it Heat, but he is technically right, it is a very slim chance. Don's statistics are statistics, not draw odds, which are very different.
No tags for me, just over the counter archery deer.
>>LAST EDITED ON Jul-18-08
>>AT 00:02?AM (MST)
>>
>>while Don is statistically close, the
>>tags do not go to
>>the max point holders, they
>>simply have a weighted chance
>>in BP draw that ups
>>the odds...it is not Colorado
>>and AZ does not have
>>a preference system, everybody does
>>have a chance if the
>>draw is done the way
>>that G&F publishes the process...albeit
>>a very slim one.
>
>
>Hey bro, ever heard of the
>20% bonus point pass drawing?
> Try reading ALL of
>the regs before you start
>trying to discredit someone who
>clearly is much more informed
>about the topic!
Sorry to say it Heat, but he is technically right, it is a very slim chance. Don's statistics are statistics, not draw odds, which are very different.
No tags for me, just over the counter archery deer.
no no offense taken. I just came in from workin on the fence line and i was pretty well smoked and baked. Gawwd it is hot down here. LOL but "my contact" was either wrong about them cleaning it up and taking the time to do it, thta was on wedesday he told me that, or someone was pulling his leg.
He works in the G&F office and even made the phone call while i was standing there. Oh well so much for insider networking.
My wife aqnd daughter both drew 12a west early. My son drew the youth hunt in 12aw. I unfortunately now have 5 bonus points added to the list of points I "drew" this year. It doesnt matter really I have just as much fun with them. Congratulations to all who drew and good luck. This will probably be a good year im guessing.
Hmm now whered i put that bear tag?
He works in the G&F office and even made the phone call while i was standing there. Oh well so much for insider networking.
My wife aqnd daughter both drew 12a west early. My son drew the youth hunt in 12aw. I unfortunately now have 5 bonus points added to the list of points I "drew" this year. It doesnt matter really I have just as much fun with them. Congratulations to all who drew and good luck. This will probably be a good year im guessing.
Hmm now whered i put that bear tag?
M
maddglasser
Guest
We understand!!
F
Flagstaff
Guest
I drew a late Unit 6A. I now need to get a lotto ticket!!!
H
Heat
Guest
RE: AZ draw
>LAST EDITED ON Jul-18-08
>AT 00:02?AM (MST)
>
>while Don is statistically close, the
>tags do not go to
>the max point holders, they
>simply have a weighted chance
>in BP draw that ups
>the odds...it is not Colorado
>and AZ does not have
>a preference system, everybody does
>have a chance if the
>draw is done the way
>that G&F publishes the process...albeit
>a very slim one.
Sorry about the tone of my earlier post. It is possible I suppose that residents draw way more than their share of the tags in the BP round and one or two happens to get into the regular part of the drawing. I would expect the odds of that happening to be very low, but possible. But again, what are the odds it's going to get drawn by a NR at that point? Not too good from what I've seen of the stats.
I re-read your post and realized that there is that chance, however Don I believe has the facts from the previous draws and that's hard to argue with.
Nick
>LAST EDITED ON Jul-18-08
>AT 00:02?AM (MST)
>
>while Don is statistically close, the
>tags do not go to
>the max point holders, they
>simply have a weighted chance
>in BP draw that ups
>the odds...it is not Colorado
>and AZ does not have
>a preference system, everybody does
>have a chance if the
>draw is done the way
>that G&F publishes the process...albeit
>a very slim one.
Sorry about the tone of my earlier post. It is possible I suppose that residents draw way more than their share of the tags in the BP round and one or two happens to get into the regular part of the drawing. I would expect the odds of that happening to be very low, but possible. But again, what are the odds it's going to get drawn by a NR at that point? Not too good from what I've seen of the stats.
I re-read your post and realized that there is that chance, however Don I believe has the facts from the previous draws and that's hard to argue with.
Nick
S
sndvls
Guest
Nothing for me, but my eleven year old drew a junior 17b tag, and we still have his bull hunt in November. I guess our anxiety is over for this year's draw.
DonMartin
Very Active Member
- Messages
- 2,077
LAST EDITED ON Jul-19-08 AT 09:55AM (MST)[p]Heat:
After thinking it over, Jasn is probably correct in his assessment of draw odds vs statistics. Kudos to him!
It is true that someone COULD in theory draw one of those premium tags, though to my knowledge,(and I buy the lists every year!) no one has done it.
Example on how it COULD occur.
Even though there were over 200 NR with max BPs (11) for deer this year, say for some reason only THREE drew tags out of the first 9 that were given per the 20% pass rule. Under the 10% rule they could get a max of 4.
There were have been 34 tags left over for that second, regular draw.
So there would be one NR tag left over that COULD be drawn during the second (regular) draw.
That being said, let's go back and visit the statistics and see what has happened the past five years.
Has that scenario ever happened? NO
Could it ever happen? YES
Do I think it will ever happen? HECK NO, not when NR's with max points outnumber residents two to one.
The reasoning is purely mathematical in nature, so yep Jasn has a valid point.
But no matter how it is served up, the bottom line is that a NR who has less than max bonus points for deer and who applies ONLY for those premium hunts, in all reality is NOT going to draw a tag!
Don Martin
"That's my story and I'm sticking to it!"
After thinking it over, Jasn is probably correct in his assessment of draw odds vs statistics. Kudos to him!
It is true that someone COULD in theory draw one of those premium tags, though to my knowledge,(and I buy the lists every year!) no one has done it.
Example on how it COULD occur.
Even though there were over 200 NR with max BPs (11) for deer this year, say for some reason only THREE drew tags out of the first 9 that were given per the 20% pass rule. Under the 10% rule they could get a max of 4.
There were have been 34 tags left over for that second, regular draw.
So there would be one NR tag left over that COULD be drawn during the second (regular) draw.
That being said, let's go back and visit the statistics and see what has happened the past five years.
Has that scenario ever happened? NO
Could it ever happen? YES
Do I think it will ever happen? HECK NO, not when NR's with max points outnumber residents two to one.
The reasoning is purely mathematical in nature, so yep Jasn has a valid point.
But no matter how it is served up, the bottom line is that a NR who has less than max bonus points for deer and who applies ONLY for those premium hunts, in all reality is NOT going to draw a tag!
Don Martin
"That's my story and I'm sticking to it!"
S
sndvls
Guest
Fugitive, I sent you a PM and I live in the nortwest valley
H
HardcoreOutdoor
Guest
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