LAST EDITED ON May-30-09 AT 02:43PM (MST)[p]I know this was started in another post, but I have some numbers:
The hunt consultants were saying that with a worsening economy, draw odds would get better. Maybe, but check out Colorado's Hunt Recap Summary and Preference Point requirements already available for elk for the draw that just posted (sorry that the tables I made don't align)
2008 2009 % change
#Licenses avail. 140,000 132,000 -6%
#1st choice apps. 195,000 190,000 -3%
#Non-res apps. 87,000 80,000 -8%
OK, I'll give them that overall average odds improved, but not much. Now look at a highly-sought after unit to see if it tracks with average odds. I'll just use unit 61 1st season rifle bull for example
2008 2009 % change
#Licenses avail. 111 111 0%
#1st choice apps. 1,596 1,587 less than 1% drop
#Non-res apps. 456 452 Less than 1% drop
#Res. Points req?d 8 9 +13%
#Non-res points req?d 13 14 +14%
At least for Colorado, the economy didn't improve draw odds much, if at all for average odds (an 8% improvement for non-res apps means a hunt that had 10% chance of drawing will have a 10.8% chance of drawing when you consider demand regardless of points.)
Based on my small survey of one quality unit, the odds worsened with respect to preference points by 13% for residents and 8% for non residents even in this "bad" economy. I don't have time to survey other units, maybe others can. I suspect the quality units in states still not drawn for 2009 will track with Colorado.
This is why when people lobby for more quality draw units in place of OTC or low demand hunts, I cringe. Even if every unit in the west were draw, there are more of us applying by far than there will ever be licenses available, even in "bad" economies.
The Christian
The hunt consultants were saying that with a worsening economy, draw odds would get better. Maybe, but check out Colorado's Hunt Recap Summary and Preference Point requirements already available for elk for the draw that just posted (sorry that the tables I made don't align)
2008 2009 % change
#Licenses avail. 140,000 132,000 -6%
#1st choice apps. 195,000 190,000 -3%
#Non-res apps. 87,000 80,000 -8%
OK, I'll give them that overall average odds improved, but not much. Now look at a highly-sought after unit to see if it tracks with average odds. I'll just use unit 61 1st season rifle bull for example
2008 2009 % change
#Licenses avail. 111 111 0%
#1st choice apps. 1,596 1,587 less than 1% drop
#Non-res apps. 456 452 Less than 1% drop
#Res. Points req?d 8 9 +13%
#Non-res points req?d 13 14 +14%
At least for Colorado, the economy didn't improve draw odds much, if at all for average odds (an 8% improvement for non-res apps means a hunt that had 10% chance of drawing will have a 10.8% chance of drawing when you consider demand regardless of points.)
Based on my small survey of one quality unit, the odds worsened with respect to preference points by 13% for residents and 8% for non residents even in this "bad" economy. I don't have time to survey other units, maybe others can. I suspect the quality units in states still not drawn for 2009 will track with Colorado.
This is why when people lobby for more quality draw units in place of OTC or low demand hunts, I cringe. Even if every unit in the west were draw, there are more of us applying by far than there will ever be licenses available, even in "bad" economies.
The Christian
