CBO-Stimulus Bad Long Term for Economy

NeMont

Long Time Member
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What Obama is asking for is for us is to forgo future growth. In 2019 my youngest will be 22, why should we further mortgage his future because we are too selfish to make the tough decisions today.

We need industrialization in our economy not governmentization. Put capital to productive use not flushed down the drain of government spending.

http://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2009/feb/04/cbo-obama-stimulus-harmful-over-long-haul/

CBO: Obama stimulus harmful over long haul
Stephen Dinan (Contact)
Wednesday, February 4, 2009


President Obama's economic recovery package will actually hurt the economy more in the long run than if he were to do nothing, the nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office said Wednesday.

CBO, the official scorekeepers for legislation, said the House and Senate bills will help in the short term but result in so much government debt that within a few years they would crowd out private investment, actually leading to a lower Gross Domestic Product over the next 10 years than if the government had done nothing.

CBO estimates that by 2019 the Senate legislation would reduce GDP by 0.1 percent to 0.3 percent on net. [The House bill] would have similar long-run effects, CBO said in a letter to Sen. Judd Gregg, New Hampshire Republican, who was tapped by Mr. Obama on Tuesday to be Commerce Secretary.

The House last week passed a bill totaling about $820 billion while the Senate is working on a proposal reaching about $900 billion in spending increases and tax cuts.

But Republicans and some moderate Democrats have balked at the size of the bill and at some of the spending items included in it, arguing they won't produce immediate jobs, which is the stated goal of the bill.

The budget office had previously estimated service the debt due to the new spending could add hundreds of millions of dollars to the cost of the bill -- forcing the crowd-out.

CBOs basic assumption is that, in the long run, each dollar of additional debt crowds out about a third of a dollars worth of private domestic capital, CBO said in its letter.

CBO said there is no crowding out in the short term, so the plan would succeed in boosting growth in 2009 and 2010.

The agency projected the Senate bill would produce between 1.4 percent and 4.1 percent higher growth in 2009 than if there was no action. For 2010, the plan would boost growth by 1.2 percent to 3.6 percent.

CBO did project the bill would create jobs, though by 2011 the effects would be minuscule.
 
I'm starting to think we're screwed in any event. we can become a 3rd world nation now, or we can use whats left of our credit and become one later. guess which one I'm leaning towards?


On this, what gives with Wall Street? everyone including myself that I talk to thinks whatever stimulus they agree on will probably flop. but Wall Street is up 200 points today figuring the stimulus will get done soon because the economic news sucks so bad time has run out, what is up with this?

Wall Street is full of idiots this we know, but the fact just thinking the stimulus is going to be approved makes them giddy at the same time they watch the ship sinking makes me wonder if some of us are not seeing something? maybe they're just that stupid or maybe I'm being too negative? I don't know.
 
HD,

The Street is up the street is down. Whenever there is a bunch of money printed by any government it winds up in the stock market. The street knows that alot of this printed money is going to show up in the market and they are anticipating that. It is not a sustainable rise and nobody knows in the short term which way this thing is headed. Long term it should be obvious to most where it is headed.

Nemont
 
True, but the news is so bad it washes out any good news the stimulus talks provide.

We had the biggest jump in unemployment since 1974 in the headlines, yet the market has a rally on stimulus talks. we'll be lucky if the stimulus can temporarily stop things from getting worse, consumer debt and unemployment are so high it's going to take a lot just to hold ground so why the exitment? I see what you're saying but I think the optimism of the stimulus approval is way overblown in the actual marketplace, unless maybe they see something I don't.
 
American Express, JP Morgan, Citigroup and Bank of America had big moves today. All are fortune 500 and all are represented in the DOW.


Here is a snippet from the market watch:
Banking shares rallied for the second session as investors looked to Monday's announcement on how the government will use the remaining $350 billion of the Treasury's Troubled Asset Relief Program (TARP).

Bank stocks led the advance, including Dow components Citigroup (C, Fortune 500), American Express (AXP, Fortune 500) and JPMorgan Chase (JPM, Fortune 500). Bank of America (BAC, Fortune 500) jumped 25% after falling to a more than 20-year low Thursday.

Stocks gained Thursday on hopes about the bank bailout plan and better-than-expected monthly sales from Wal-Mart Stores. Throughout the week, investors have taken a measured response to news that has been bad, but not as bad as expected, including reports on manufacturing and housing. That optimism was sustained Friday.

Lots of data in regards to "hope" not much data that says things are going to get better. It appears the market is as addicted to bailout money as they were to easy credit. We both know where that ended.

Nemont
 
True, the flaw in my logic is when I think of buying a stock I'm thinking how will this perform in the future . one needs to think how will this stock do if I buy it this morning and sell it before I go to lunch. I underestimate the power of day traders on the market, and you just can't judge the health of the economy by it.
 

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