lostinOregon
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I have always taken an interest in numbers and draw odds. I watch folks every year on draw day telling me what tags they are going to draw, with me knowing good and well they will get beat by point creep. I find it also interesting that the publications all vie for the most "accurate draw odds" you can find. The draw odds that happened last year have absolutely no effect on this years draw. It can give you a good starting point, however it is not what you need to pay attention to. I have thought of starting a website based draw odds site, focusing on what it takes to draw this year, not last year. There are several factors that I look at, some of these include media attention to a unit, you-tube, and major hunting publications. This year is Colorado has been touted as the best dates ever for deer seasons. Founder asked me why I thought there will be point creep in Colorado this year. I answered him in a post, but thought I would give my reasoning with numbers also. I think it will be the worst we have seen due to all of the above factors. I have decided to break down unit number 66 2nd season for this post, because it is a popular choice and a very publicized unit.
In 2020, there was an increase of tags available to NR in unit 66. The tag increases were not allotted across the board evenly through all seasons. 3rd and 4th seasons had a reduction of tags, while the surplus tags were added to 2nd season. I believe this reduction in 3rd and 4th was due to the late season dates, with biologists making recommendations to slow the kill on mature deer.
In 2020 there were a total of 49 available non resident tags, up from 36 tags the previous year. These 49 tags were drawn from NR's who had 18 points down to 6 points. The most tags were issued to applicants with 6 points (10) for a 100 percent draw rate for 6 points and above for NR. Applications increased from 131 to 158 from the previous year. This season continues to receive more applications, and even with a substantial increase in tags, it still required 6 points to draw in 2020, as it did in 2019. The highest point applicant for 2nd season in 2019 was 14, and in 2020 it was 18, which showed people jumping in this with a very high point total (12 more than required).
The NR ability to draw a 3rd season tag is also a factor in 2nd season climbing in points required. In 2019 there were 15 tags issued to NR during 3rd season. In 2020 the tags issued were reduced to 12 tags. In 2019 tags were issued to NR in the 3rd season with 20 points through 17 points. In 2020 tags were issued to NR in the 3rd season with 23 points through 20 points, with 1 out of seven with 19 points drawing a tag. As you can see, the amount of points required to draw the 3rd season tag had continued to increase, while at the same time the availability of the tags is being reduced. That was a 3 point increase for 3rd season tags last year without the benefits of the later seasons this year. If you do not have at least 20 plus points, you won't draw a 3rd season tag in the near future. This puts people in no mans land, and with the late dates of 2nd season, I believe you will see a significant shift to 2nd season for the 2021 season.
The number of people with a high number of points is staggering. There are 181 NR's with 25 points or more. There are 1,162 NR with 20 to 24 points. There are 8,984 NR's with 10 to 19 points. The last group is the group that I expect to jump into the game this year realizing that they can't catch the 3rd seasons hunts and with the dates of 2nd, being the old dates of 3rd, cashing in their points.
I expect the 66 2nd season to jump at a minimum 3 points for a non resident to draw a 2nd season tag. I wouldn't be surprised to see it in the 4-5 point range. I guess at this point all I can do is sit and watch, hoping I am wrong.
Rich
In 2020, there was an increase of tags available to NR in unit 66. The tag increases were not allotted across the board evenly through all seasons. 3rd and 4th seasons had a reduction of tags, while the surplus tags were added to 2nd season. I believe this reduction in 3rd and 4th was due to the late season dates, with biologists making recommendations to slow the kill on mature deer.
In 2020 there were a total of 49 available non resident tags, up from 36 tags the previous year. These 49 tags were drawn from NR's who had 18 points down to 6 points. The most tags were issued to applicants with 6 points (10) for a 100 percent draw rate for 6 points and above for NR. Applications increased from 131 to 158 from the previous year. This season continues to receive more applications, and even with a substantial increase in tags, it still required 6 points to draw in 2020, as it did in 2019. The highest point applicant for 2nd season in 2019 was 14, and in 2020 it was 18, which showed people jumping in this with a very high point total (12 more than required).
The NR ability to draw a 3rd season tag is also a factor in 2nd season climbing in points required. In 2019 there were 15 tags issued to NR during 3rd season. In 2020 the tags issued were reduced to 12 tags. In 2019 tags were issued to NR in the 3rd season with 20 points through 17 points. In 2020 tags were issued to NR in the 3rd season with 23 points through 20 points, with 1 out of seven with 19 points drawing a tag. As you can see, the amount of points required to draw the 3rd season tag had continued to increase, while at the same time the availability of the tags is being reduced. That was a 3 point increase for 3rd season tags last year without the benefits of the later seasons this year. If you do not have at least 20 plus points, you won't draw a 3rd season tag in the near future. This puts people in no mans land, and with the late dates of 2nd season, I believe you will see a significant shift to 2nd season for the 2021 season.
The number of people with a high number of points is staggering. There are 181 NR's with 25 points or more. There are 1,162 NR with 20 to 24 points. There are 8,984 NR's with 10 to 19 points. The last group is the group that I expect to jump into the game this year realizing that they can't catch the 3rd seasons hunts and with the dates of 2nd, being the old dates of 3rd, cashing in their points.
I expect the 66 2nd season to jump at a minimum 3 points for a non resident to draw a 2nd season tag. I wouldn't be surprised to see it in the 4-5 point range. I guess at this point all I can do is sit and watch, hoping I am wrong.
Rich