Cow hunts 2012

outdoorsdude · Feb 13, 2012

So, once again crunching numbers trying to find the three 'best choices' for my wife to draw a cow tag. (for the record she is 0 for 2, need to fire the statistician)

It is amazing to me how some Cow hunts actually have severely worse odds to draw than some MB tags.

Anyway, with the rule change to resident only, how is it going to affect the draw odds? will it really help? or will everybody go- "hey more tags better odds" and jump in the cow hunts thereby swinging the app. numbers and creating an inverse (worse odds)?

I know that only time will tell but it's kinda fun to speculate now. God help me for asking: What is your opinion on it?

Cuacopollo · Feb 13, 2012

I think cow draw odds will be only a bit better.... not many non-res put in for cows before anyway, so it won't change much.

Slygrrr · Feb 13, 2012

I always spend a week at my place in NM for the Thanksgiving holidays and usually am able to draw a late cow tag. Technically I am a nonresident and no longer eligible, I'm going to miss that.

greatwestern · Feb 13, 2012

LAST EDITED ON Feb-13-12 AT 02:10PM (MST)[p]Agree with Cuacopollo, don't think the antlerless draw odds will change much...I know quite a few people that apply for cow hunts for both their 2nd and 3rd choices after 1st choice bull, under the mistaken reasoning that ANY cow hunt likely has better odds than ANY bull hunt.

I think this explains the crowding of many antlerless codes. As much as many of us here may take them for granted, I believe the majority of appplicants don't really understand or even look at the draw odds reports.

30inchbuck · Feb 13, 2012

Odds will not change much, outdoor PM me with your location, wants, needs, Fairly good at stats also know the most of the units, elk numbers, success ect. Would be willing to at least give you my opinion on what would be your best 1st,2nd 3rd choice for the wife.

Outside of a horse is good for the inside of a man.

1FastGambler · Feb 13, 2012

You're actually asking a good question and have received responses from a couple top notch guys.

Here's my spin on it... (since you asked) haha!

The draw odds for any elk hunt will not change enough to matter as far as actually drawing tags more often in our lifetimes due to the new rules.

However I do think that the odds for certain units will shift due to the new rules. Some will get better, some will get worse because people will apply differently than they did in years past, but again, the overall odds will not change more than single digit percentages.

You're wife is 0 for 2 on what? Drawing a tag or filling a tag?
From the way your post is written I'll assume the first.

Take 30" up on his offer to assist, he will provide you with trustworthy info.

Personally I would want to know a few things before recomending which hunts you should put her in for. Such as, weapon preference, your location and willingness to travel, etc.

If she doesn't draw, you could always buy her a landowner tag to put some meat in the freezer. Price per lb of meat will go up dramatically, but getting to watch the wife drop and old dry cow is priceless, right?

Best of luck to ya!

ELKMAN · Feb 13, 2012

I agree some of the odds are unreal. Check out the odds for unit 34 rifle cow permits. They are harder then some bull permits to draw.

Decent units would fill up with non-residents. If there were 100 tags last year, now 22 more tags will go to residents.

cosmic_cowboy · Feb 14, 2012

I think in the past most cow tags went to 2nd and 3d choice.This year if you put a cow hunt 1st choice you have a better chance at drawing it in most units.

CC

outdoorsdude · Feb 14, 2012

Greatwestern- some of the numbers would indicate that yes ppl. do go cow on 2nd and 3rd.

I don't really understand the logic behind that one, if you want a bull- go bull all the way. If like for my wife , a cow will do, go cow all the way. How many ppl. also put rifle as first choice and then try archery for 2nd and 3rd? Me, I love archery, so its across the board- even fourth choice.

30in- thank you, a very generous offer

1Fast- She has watched me do it for years (even calling some now), just been wanting to turn the tables and be the support for once

Elkman- Yup! 34 is nuts! 10.5% between the three?!

Personally, I expect the cow pool to swell in app. numbers, but just a little. Some areas more so than others. I expect the same thing in the WMA hunts for the same reason.

coryb · Feb 14, 2012

I don't think the odds will change much. As was previously said, I think very few people understand and use the draw odds. Most people just put in for what they want.

I think more people will be putting a cow hunt for their third choice and the odds will actually go down on many hunts. I also think most people's 1st and 2nd choice will be the same as before and most MB or ES odds will be roughly the same.

CC-whether you put in for a hunt on your first or third choice makes no difference in whether or not you draw it. If that hunt is available when your app. comes up you get it.

We always put in for the best rifle bull hunts for our first choice (never drawn one) a really good hunt for our second (also yet to be drawn) and an archery hunt with good (50%) odds as a third. If we don't draw this we can buy a cow tag for a couple hundred dollars. No use in wasting your third choice on something that can be had so cheap.

I am interested to see how the odds really change, but it's fun to speculate.

Cory

outdoorsdude · May 8, 2012

Well- once again - the wife did not draw!

I will be in the Valle Vidal doing a OIL archery tag. But she didn't hit a single tag. Just goes to show you how important it is to be in the top of the stack when they start drawing!!