He could draw in the random pool but he won't draw as a 2nd choice because there are more applicants than tags, thus creating the "2 point pool". All first choice apps are looked at before they go to 2nd choice so there would have to be fewer applicants than tags.
If only one applicant applied and he had 2 points (creating the illusion of a 2 point pool) the remaining tags would go to the 2nd choice applicants where points are not used, removing the 2 point criteria.
So, after all that mumbo jumbo, if he looks at the random draw odds for 2010, deducts the 1st choice applicants from the available tags, then compares those remaining tags to the 2nd choice applicants he can see his odds of getting the tag as his 2nd choice.