Draw Odds Question

[Wiszard]

I checked the NR Random draw odds and I am not sure if I am reading it right. Random draw states there are 63 tags allotted with 243 1st choice applicants. This is for Region D.
I then went to the preference points section and saw that around 50 applicants drew with one point out of 86 or so....a 68% chance of drawing approx. There was also a 100% line where applicants drew with 1 point. I understand that logic. My question is....an applicant can draw a region D tag with no points in the random draw? Or do you have to have one point and with that you still only have roughly a 68% chance to draw? I appreciate the help.

My guess would be that you'd have to have at least 1 point to draw a NR tag. Thanks.

Steve

Cancer doesn't discriminate...don't take your good health for granted because it can be gone in a heartbeat. Please go back and read the last line. This time really understand what it says.

 

[Soccerdude]

LAST EDITED ON Nov-24-19 AT 10:04PM (MST)[p]WY allots a certain number of tags to get drawn randomly after the preference point draw happens. In your example they had 63 tags to be given away in the random draw with 241 applications that didn't draw in the points draw.
If you draw in the random as a first choice you still lose your points. So about 25% draw odds in the random draw too.

If I am wrong someone correct us.

 

[nripepi]

You are both pretty much correct.

Wyoming issues 75% of the non-resident allotment to the regular price (cheaper) draw and 25% to the special (more expensive) price draw.

Of that 75%, Wyoming issues 75% of those tags (in this case a quota of 192 for Region D regular price) to a preference point draw where the person with the most points receives the tag.

and 25% to the random draw (quota of 64 for Region D regular price)

On the preference point draw, 0 persons with 0 points drew and every single person with 1 point drew. There were 52 tags remaining after the people with 1 drew and were distributed to groups of people that had more than 0 points. One could assume if you had more than 0.5 points averaged between two hunters last year that you would have drawn. I do not think that data is available to the public on the exact breakdown. If you had two persons with 1 point and 1 with 0 you would have gone in with 0.67 points and it was probably 100% draw.

So basically if you had 0 points last year or likely this year, your only chance is in the random draw where your odds were just under 24%.

Find a friend or two with 1 point and you should be good to go!

 

[Wiszard]

Thanks guys- That is what we figured. Next year I'll be going in with 0 points so I hope my odds go up. I appreciate the help.

Steve

Cancer doesn't discriminate...don't take your good health for granted because it can be gone in a heartbeat. Please go back and read the last line. This time really understand what it says.

 

[jm77]

LAST EDITED ON Nov-25-19 AT 04:14PM (MST)[p]>You are both pretty much correct.
>
>
>Wyoming issues 75% of the non-resident
>allotment to the regular price
>(cheaper) draw and 25% to
>the special (more expensive) price
>draw.
>
>Of that 75%, Wyoming issues 75%
>of those tags (in this
>case a quota of 192
>for Region D regular price)
>to a preference point draw
>where the person with the
>most points receives the tag.
>
>
>and 25% to the random draw
>(quota of 64 for Region
>D regular price)
>
>On the preference point draw, 0
>persons with 0 points drew
>and every single person with
>1 point drew. There
>were 52 tags remaining after
>the people with 1 drew
>and were distributed to groups
>of people that had more
>than 0 points. One
>could assume if you had
>more than 0.5 points averaged
>between two hunters last year
>that you would have drawn.
> I do not think
>that data is available to
>the public on the exact
>breakdown. If you had
>two persons with 1 point
>and 1 with 0 you
>would have gone in with
>0.67 points and it was
>probably 100% draw.
>
>So basically if you had 0
>points last year or likely
>this year, your only chance
>is in the random draw
>where your odds were just
>under 24%.
>
>Find a friend or two with
>1 point and you should
>be good to go!

Couple of things wrong here:

Regular/Special draw is 60/40 tag allotment.

The tag is 100% draw with no points in the special random or special points draw.

 

[Wiszard]

I see that it is 100% draw in special but $670 is not a value in my opinion. I will hope I draw in the random.

Cancer doesn't discriminate...don't take your good health for granted because it can be gone in a heartbeat. Please go back and read the last line. This time really understand what it says.

 

[BluffGruff]

Too each their own, but the tag cost is a minimal part of the expense of a hunt. I can find $240 or whatever the extra $ for the special tag in meals, gear, hotels, etc without much effort. Unless you're day tripping from the state next door, your lodging will be more than that, even if it's a tent.