Draw Odds ?

[muzzhunter]

In the draw odds link on here it asks for your 2009 points. I'm wondering do they mean after the 2009 draw, so that would be points going into 2010? Or is it based off of 2009 drawing stats so they want points going into 2009 draw to make the accurate projections?
Thanks,
Dave

 

[Ram187]

I am not an expert but it has to be the points going into the draw, the points after are mean nothing till the following year.

 

[WapitiBob]

if it asks for 2009 points, the odds are those going into the 2010 draw. They just got the web site up with 2009 data (except NM).
Your point input will be what you will have going into 2010.

 

[Anaconda]

I assume 2009 points means going in to the 2009 draw.
If it means going in to 2010, I have an extra point, that's a good thing !
Founder, let us know !

 

[kilowatt]

If it means going in to 2010.

Brian

 

[JDC]

Arizona, Colorado, Utah and Wyoming have all been updated with the results of the 2009 drawing. To show the correct odds at your point level, you need to enter the points you had going into the 2009 drawing. We do not know what your odds are going into 2010 yet.

For the remaining states that use points, you need to go back one point further (going into 2008) as the 2009 odds have not been updated yet. They are on their way and I will get them updated as quickly as I can.

Jon
www.HuntersTrailhead.com

 

[muzzhunter]

Thanks for the clarification.

 

[WapitiBob]

>Arizona, Colorado, Utah and Wyoming have
>all been updated with the
>results of the 2009 drawing.
>To show the correct odds
>at your point level, you
>need to enter the points
>you had going into the
>2009 drawing. We do not
>know what your odds are
>going into 2010 yet.
>
>For the remaining states that use
>points, you need to go
>back one point further (going
>into 2008) as the 2009
>odds have not been updated
>yet. They are on their
>way and I will get
>them updated as quickly as
>I can.
>
>Jon
>www.HuntersTrailhead.com

So your draw odds site is showing the odds you had for the already concluded draw?

 

[fullcurl74]

By the way Jon, your website kicks a$$. I spend a ton of time looking at it, and I think it may help me get some tags this year.

Thanks!

 

[fatherofthree]

I questioned the accuracy of the posted odds in another thread and thought it might be interesting to people viewing this one as well.



"Look at an easy one just for kicks, pull up the odds for Johnson Mtn Ranch deer in Utah for 09. I chose this as it's fairly simple with only 2 regular tags.
One of the applicants with 4 points drew the bonus point tag so it leaves 5 people left in the drawing with 4,1,1,0,&0. Each get a chance for each point and one for this year. so the total NEW applicant chances are 11 (5,2,2,1,1) if you follow.

so if I'm one of the 2 chance (1 bonus point guys) your numbers say my odds are 40.8%. Simple math tells me that my chances are 2 in 11 for the first of the two remaining tags or 18%.

Suppose I didn't draw this tag (or draw the lowest number as we know how it works). Depending on if the guy with 5 chances or one with one chance drew the first tag, my next chances would be either 2 in 6 or 2 in 10. 33.3% or 20%. thus my best case scenario odds are 33.3% and worse case scenario odds are 20%."

 

[Moosey69]

>So your draw odds site is
>showing the odds you had
>for the already concluded draw?
>
Are you guys serious? Of course it is for the points going into the 2009 draw, unless someone has a crystal ball to tell them how many applicants states will have next year and what the tag allocations that are usually not set until the spring are there is no way of knowing what next years odds will be. But you can get a pretty good Idea of what your overall odds should be by looking at this years data.