draw odds?
- Thread starter BBB
- Start date
Its my understanding that the odds are based on those who applied for that unit as their first choice and those who drew it.
So if it says 100 applied and ten were drawn it means at least 90 had selected that hunt as their first choice but the ten that were drawn may or may not have had it as the first choice
So if it says 100 applied and ten were drawn it means at least 90 had selected that hunt as their first choice but the ten that were drawn may or may not have had it as the first choice
PleaseDear
Long Time Member
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- 10,435
Not sure if this will help ya out any more or not?
http://www.ndow.org/hunt/resources/odds/index.shtm
Robb
http://www.ndow.org/hunt/resources/odds/index.shtm
Robb
Thanks for your help. The draw odds posted only reflect the applicant's first choice draw odds. I'm trying to wrap my peabrain around the draw odds for the remaining 4 hunt choices.
If I don't draw my first choice, my understanding is they look at all 5 choices before they move on to the next selected applicant. So, how do you project the odds for your draw choices 2-5? Or can you? Do you think they would be similar to the 1st choice draw odds provided on MM data for each given unit? Or without the data that shows applicants choices 2-5, we won't know?
This time of the year a guy can drive himself nuts with draw data and anxiety!
If I don't draw my first choice, my understanding is they look at all 5 choices before they move on to the next selected applicant. So, how do you project the odds for your draw choices 2-5? Or can you? Do you think they would be similar to the 1st choice draw odds provided on MM data for each given unit? Or without the data that shows applicants choices 2-5, we won't know?
This time of the year a guy can drive himself nuts with draw data and anxiety!
sagebrush
Very Active Member
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I really pay no attention to draw odds in NV. I have drawn 5th choices with 2 points that guys with 10 points couldn't draw as a first choice. It's all about the random number generated for you.
I do pay attention to the number of non-resident tags available. I have drawn only one hunt that had just two non-resident tags.
I decide which units I want to hunt, apply and keep applying until I draw. Let the chips fall where they may.
I do pay attention to the number of non-resident tags available. I have drawn only one hunt that had just two non-resident tags.
I decide which units I want to hunt, apply and keep applying until I draw. Let the chips fall where they may.
BBB,
The draw odds presented here on MM take into account all 1st choice applicants (successful or not) and all successful applicants regardless of choice. Your understanding of the Nevada system is correct in that all 5 of your choices will be considered before moving on to another applicant. So with that in mind, the odds presented here can be considered as "Best Case". If I were able to include all 5 choices in my calculations, the odds would only go down from what is presented here. It would also introduce some inaccuracy due to the fact that some would have drawn one of their other choices and would no longer be a viable applicant for any other unit. In the past I have requested the applicants from all 5 choices but up to this point I have been unsuccessful in acquiring them. I will say though, that the odds considering all 5 choices would probably be quite depressing - especially if you are just starting out.
I hope that this helps.
Jon
www.HuntersTrailhead.com
The draw odds presented here on MM take into account all 1st choice applicants (successful or not) and all successful applicants regardless of choice. Your understanding of the Nevada system is correct in that all 5 of your choices will be considered before moving on to another applicant. So with that in mind, the odds presented here can be considered as "Best Case". If I were able to include all 5 choices in my calculations, the odds would only go down from what is presented here. It would also introduce some inaccuracy due to the fact that some would have drawn one of their other choices and would no longer be a viable applicant for any other unit. In the past I have requested the applicants from all 5 choices but up to this point I have been unsuccessful in acquiring them. I will say though, that the odds considering all 5 choices would probably be quite depressing - especially if you are just starting out.
I hope that this helps.
Jon
www.HuntersTrailhead.com
Nevada has a great system in that you can apply for the hunt of a lifetime that only has 2 tags and long odds but still draw a more reasonable hunt too.
There is no rhyme or reason to the odds just look at the application trends and try to put the 5 choices in the right order is all you can do.
There is no rhyme or reason to the odds just look at the application trends and try to put the 5 choices in the right order is all you can do.
You know real draw odds are worse than the best case, how much worse is just an educated guess. Better draw odds should be a good (not perfect) indicator of which hunts are easier to draw if you want to figure how best to use your five choices. It makes sense to make each choice down be somewhat easier to draw than the one before it, or at least close enough to be in grey area.
A
alhefner
Guest
I'm just using the odds as a guide myself...my first three choices are going to be for what I think would be the best hunting then the last two the best chances of getting a tag...
PleaseDear
Long Time Member
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+1 Elmer Fudd....
I do my top 3 picks with knowledge of the unit and experience from my past hunts on them.
Nope ~~ not on the OIL species (D-Ram, Mnt. Goat, Cali Ram, Rocky Ram) as they are ALL truely once in a lifeteme drawn tags----someday for most of us! ha
Monday/19th the Game begins in Nv.!!
The very best results to everyone!
Robb
I do my top 3 picks with knowledge of the unit and experience from my past hunts on them.
Nope ~~ not on the OIL species (D-Ram, Mnt. Goat, Cali Ram, Rocky Ram) as they are ALL truely once in a lifeteme drawn tags----someday for most of us! ha
Monday/19th the Game begins in Nv.!!
The very best results to everyone!
Robb
Califelkslayer
Long Time Member
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It's really a reference.
But elk for example: 1000s apply for the early hunt in Unit 16 thus the first choice for other units is less. But once they complete their other 4 choices, there is no telling what the real odds are. One year I did notice that only 4 people applied for a specific unit's Muzzy elk tag the year before. I realized that 100s may put it as their 5th choice but i applied for it as my 1st and drew the tag with only 7 NR PPs. I'll never know if I had the lowest possible random draw number availible.
IMO not a bad use of 7 NR PPs. Gets the waiting period started so you can play the game all over again.
But elk for example: 1000s apply for the early hunt in Unit 16 thus the first choice for other units is less. But once they complete their other 4 choices, there is no telling what the real odds are. One year I did notice that only 4 people applied for a specific unit's Muzzy elk tag the year before. I realized that 100s may put it as their 5th choice but i applied for it as my 1st and drew the tag with only 7 NR PPs. I'll never know if I had the lowest possible random draw number availible.
IMO not a bad use of 7 NR PPs. Gets the waiting period started so you can play the game all over again.
>+1 Elmer Fudd....
>
>I do my top 3 picks
>with knowledge of the unit
>and experience from my past
>hunts on them.
>
>Nope ~~ not on the OIL
>species (D-Ram, Mnt. Goat, Cali
>Ram, Rocky Ram) as they
>are ALL truely once in
>a lifeteme drawn tags----someday for
>most of us! ha
>
>Monday/19th the Game begins in Nv.!!
>
>
>The very best results to everyone!
>
>
>Robb
>
>I do my top 3 picks
>with knowledge of the unit
>and experience from my past
>hunts on them.
>
>Nope ~~ not on the OIL
>species (D-Ram, Mnt. Goat, Cali
>Ram, Rocky Ram) as they
>are ALL truely once in
>a lifeteme drawn tags----someday for
>most of us! ha
>
>Monday/19th the Game begins in Nv.!!
>
>
>The very best results to everyone!
>
>
>Robb
Pleasedear,
trying to understand your post on OIL.
In all practicality and realistically if a person draws one of the tags you mentioned as OIL, it probably will be his only tag for that species, especially for a non resident.
However, Nevada does not have OIL tags. They have waiting periods for all species. Once you sit out the waiting period you can apply for that species again.
Not trying to be picky but couldn't quite see where you were going with the post.
trying to understand your post on OIL.
In all practicality and realistically if a person draws one of the tags you mentioned as OIL, it probably will be his only tag for that species, especially for a non resident.
However, Nevada does not have OIL tags. They have waiting periods for all species. Once you sit out the waiting period you can apply for that species again.
Not trying to be picky but couldn't quite see where you were going with the post.
LAST EDITED ON Mar-20-12 AT 12:17PM (MST)[p]As for being able to know the true draw odds, I think you are all correct. It's about impossible to know. Maybe systems consultants could figure it out and put that info out.
Example.
I'll bet almost all the people who put in for unit 263 desert sheep resident, also put in for 253 and probably 252 as 2nd and 3rd choice and vice versa, and other trophy areas. Then factor in the squaring of bonus points that all these hunters have and the odds get very long indeed.
But, I still plan on drawing this year!
Example.
I'll bet almost all the people who put in for unit 263 desert sheep resident, also put in for 253 and probably 252 as 2nd and 3rd choice and vice versa, and other trophy areas. Then factor in the squaring of bonus points that all these hunters have and the odds get very long indeed.
But, I still plan on drawing this year!
Zim
Very Active Member
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- 2,291
Just submitted Nevada picks. Feels good to be done with apps for a month.
Due to my work situation, I'd like to burn some of my many points this year, so avoided all the HF top 6 for all species except lope. Even went for all 150" sheep units with 13 points. Hope to get something this year.
***********************************
Member RMEF, UBNM, UWC & the SFW Hate Club
Due to my work situation, I'd like to burn some of my many points this year, so avoided all the HF top 6 for all species except lope. Even went for all 150" sheep units with 13 points. Hope to get something this year.
***********************************
Member RMEF, UBNM, UWC & the SFW Hate Club
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