Draw odds?

[NMBOWHNTR27]

I’m sure this has been around lots!
who is the most accurate draw odds for western states GoHunt, Epic Outdoors, Top Rut, or HF?

 

[lostinOregon]

They all have very similar draw odds. Being accurate is honestly irrelevant. Those odds have absolutely no affect on next years drawing. It will give you a ball park of what it has been taking for a certain tag to be drawn. You have to watch season dates, social media posts and what are the "top units" of the year to assist in figuring out if point creep will get you or not. The other key is to look at how many others applied for that tag and didn't receive the tag.

Here is a simple example. This year unit 999 was drawn 100% with 5 points and there were 100 tags available. You look at the draw data and there were 300 people who put in for the same tag, did not draw and have 4 points. So next year you put in with 5 points along with the 300 others thinking it will be 100%, when in actuality if all the same people apply with no newcomers, your odds will be 33%. That is how point creep happens and by watching the forums everyone is absolutely stunned that they didn't draw their tags.

Hope that helps,

Rich

 

[BroadHead]

I personally think it's a combination of those sites that you mentioned plus old fashioned homework to get an accurate reading of your odds for specific hunt units.

I'm in Nevada, so for last year, I used a combination of TopRut and Nevada's Big Game status documents. They complemented each other nicely.

 

[littlebighorn]

It's impossible to know your real odds for any given year because of the variables that effect them. Applicants jump from one unit to another, because of changes in unit success from one year to another, hunt dates, weather, etc. Point holders die, or give up, etc. etc.
So as has been stated, all draw odds posts are taken from the data that is not variable, and generally each service is pretty similar. I look at everything I have access to and make my best guess.

 

[Cheater]

It's impossible to know your real odds for any given year because of the variables that effect them. Applicants jump from one unit to another, because of changes in unit success from one year to another, hunt dates, weather, etc. Point holders die, or give up, etc. etc.
So as has been stated, all draw odds posts are taken from the data that is not variable, and generally each service is pretty similar. I look at everything I have access to and make my best guess.

Well said, use the draw odds as a baseline and try and estimate the other variables as best as possible.

 

[DW]

CPW website under hunting statistics.

 

[Bluehair]

According to Top Rut, I would not have been drawn when in fact I was. What DW said.

 

[sticksender]

Over the years, they've all updated and improved on their systems/calculations for historic odds. TopRut has been the leader in some cases the past few years, but the others are catching up.