draw process question?

[adubs]

I'm taking a risk of sounding like and idiot but after not drawing the past two years while applying with an outfitter I have some questions about the process of the drawing. This in no way is a complaint about the NMFG or the state of NM. I love hunting NM and will be buying a LO tag again this year just like last year and I love that I have a "chance" at drawing a tag every year for Elk in that state.

However, I was told by 2 different outfitters and the HF that during the draw proccess they look at your first three choices before drawing the next name out. With that thought in mind I apply for 2 prime hunts with low odds and then as my third choice I pick a hunt with high odds of drawing thinking if I don't get lucky and happen to be one of the first names drawn that I would still have very good odds of securing a tag. After not drawing the past two years I looked more closely at the odds and noticeD that virtually nobody ever draws their 3rd choice and the odds fall off greatly after your first choice. After talking to an official from the NMFG he told me that had I put my 3rd choice as my first choice I would have most likely drawn the tag. How is that possible if they truly randomly draw names and look at our first 3 choices before going onto the next applicant?? Hoping someone can explain this to me?

Thanks,

Adubs

 

[efnm]

Hi adubs,

I just created an account to answer this (long time lurker, hello forum!) - the official was a dolt and you were right. There will always be some people who put those hunts as their 1st choice, so you will see them getting it, but it still comes down to the order your application was pulled and checked for open hunts. In other words you're doing it right.

I know it can be frustrating, I just started hunting a few years ago and I've YET to draw an elk tag despite putting 35% and 45-50% draw odd cow hunts as my third choice for 3 years running. That is statistically unlikely to happen but it has for me. Then again I drew some sort of oryx tag this year, so go figure.

Source of procedure is NM G&F's own site:

"All drawing applications are shuffled like a deck of cards and randomly assigned a sequence number. A computer program then examines applications in order according to the sequence number assigned. When an application is examined, the computer attempts to fulfill the first hunt choice, subject to the quotas described above. If the first hunt choice is already filled, the computer will try to assign the second choice to that application and then the third choice."

 

[Sierra]

Putting your 3rd choice first does not increase your odds of drawing a tag. It may slightly increase your odds of drawing that 3rd choice, but that comes at the expense of drawing your 1st and 2nd choice. The odds of drawing one of your choices remains the same.

Where are you getting your odds? HF dramatically overstates the odds.

 

[5yearcoueshunter]

I could be wrong, but I think the official from G&F was mistaken. Based on how the draw is explained, it wouldn't make any difference if your 3rd choice was your first choice. It all just depends on the order YOUR application is pulled out for that species. I know people that have drawn tags as their 3rd choice that was actually my 1st choice and I didn't draw. I've drawn several tags on my 2nd choice that was still very difficult draw odds. I think the drop off you are seeing in 3rd choice is just because the majority of hunts are difficult to draw so if you get lucky and have your name pulled early in the order, you are more than likely going to get your first choice whatever it is. Also I think there are some people that don't understand the draw process and just grab 3 hunts and don't order them by hard to easy. In those cases again if they get lucky in the order, they will get their first choice no matter what it is.

Hope that makes sense.

Travis

 

[nm_alazan]

The drop off you see on third choice is because you don't know how many folks who had a particular hunt as third choice actually drew their first or second choice which would remove them from the denominator when calculating third choice odds.

The way you are applying is the correct way to do it. If you flip it (highest odds first, lowest 3rd), you haven't reduced your overall odds of drawing a tag, just the odds of drawing a 2nd or 3rd choice (which can go down to zero chance), and lots of people incorrectly apply this way.

I've drawn 3rd choice probably 6 or 7 times in the last 10 years using your process, so it does work.

Good luck,

 

[ElmerFudd]

They go down your choices in order when your number is called and give you the first available choice before looking at the next application. This makes it tough to calculate draw odds as most apply for tough draws with the first choice and increasingly easier draws for second and third. So... draw odds for the apparently easier to draw hunts are really much worse than they appear at first glance. I seem to draw my third choice more than any other. It looks like I got my third choice elk hunt this year from the early check.

 

[JRABQ]

Most everything posted above is correct; the Game & Fish guy was wrong. Switching your 3rd choice to your 1st choice will not increase your odds of drawing a tag. As Sierra said, it might increase your chances of drawing that particular tag (at the expense of the other 2 choices), but not your overall chances.

I posted this on bowsite a few months ago to show some examples;

http://forums.bowsite.com/tf/regional/thread.cfm?threadid=221685&MESSAGES=24&state=NM

 

[chase]

I have drawn all of my tags as 3rd choice, (with the exception of ibex).


https://www.facebook.com/chase.christopher.98
https://www.facebook.com/soulofthemountain

 

[ducksbucksandbulls]

>I have drawn all of my
>tags as 3rd choice, (with
>the exception of ibex).
>
>
>https://www.facebook.com/chase.christopher.98
>https://www.facebook.com/soulofthemountain


I'm with you.
I have drawn 3 tags the last 5 years all on my 3rd choice

Same with AZ,
Always on my 2nd choice their.

 

[FieldingT]

I think it is correct to say: a hunter is drawn and he is matched with his choices based on avalability. If you are the first hunting drawn for say elk all your choices are avalible. You will get your first. If you are the 25,000st hunter drawn they go through your choice which all may be filled and the move to the next hunter. My statagy has been, since my first choice has only 5 NR Outfitters, my second choice has 50 NR Outfitters. NMDFG has told me they match hunters to hunts not hunts to hunters.

 

[mozey]

You're doing it right--sounds like a simple matter of the lottery gods not being kind to you. If you're a non-res, which I'm inferring by some things you stated in your post, your odds are way down from what they used to be when NM changed the ratios. But the way you're doing it will still give you your best odds of eventually drawing a hunt.

 

[NorthNMhntr]

+1

 

[junior]

We bought a elk landowner tag the first year we applied. Have yet to draw a elk tag! We chalked it up as, the G&F must have us labeled! "These guys will buy a tag if they don't draw"
We have tried everything, but have struck out the last decade.lol

Then you hear of nonresidents getting the same tag year after year. What's interesting is you don't hear of many getting back to back if they harvested the year before?

Dam Computers!

 

[JRABQ]

Here is a diagram I recently made that helps visualize how the draw works in NM (and similar states) where they pull your application and look at all your choices.

For simplicity I only used 2 choices in this example, but the idea can easily be extended to 3 choices.

In this example the two choices; A and B have draw odds of 20% and 50%. (how to determine the correct odds is another matter).

If you only make one choice; for hunt A your application has to be in the top 20% of the stack to be drawn, and likewise hunt B has to be in the top 50%.

If you now make two choices; A(1st) & B(2nd) your overall odds are still 50%. Your odds of getting hunt A are 20% and hunt B are 30%. If you reverse the order you will never draw hunt A, and you will draw hunt B with 50% odds. In essence your choices "overlay", and the order is important. A lot of guys who posted above understand this already, but I thought the diagram would still help.