EXPO ODDS

tyef350

tyef350

Active Member
Messages
347
How do they draw the winners? Looks like some people have better LUCK then others.

Brock Bowden of Syracuse strikes gold again!!!!!!!!

Mr. Jon Leonard from Wild Turkey Foundation in pics on the (raffle Girls) facebook sporting his sfw shirt strikes a Henry Mountains Management Buck tag. Just two people I noticed off the first pass. Must be nice to be lucky/foot in the door. That's just two that stood out to me.
 
I Guess there's one thing for sure!

Nobody will ever be Pissed at me!








[font color="red"]From My Smokin Cherry Red Hot Barrel & My Dead Cold Hands I Shall go down Fighting for American Pride & Rights!
I Know I'm Out Numbered by Pusssies & Brainwashed Democrats that'll Throw Their Hands in the air & I know I can't Lick the U.S. Military by Myself when they Turn on us but I'll make
you one Guarantee,They'll be Enduring a Situation where I Hope to Hell All Americans become True Americans once again & Stand up for their Rights!
 
I've seen multi people win over and over, some twice in one draw ( Adam Eakle) for example. There has been others. Just wondering if there hunting customer id helps them draw over and over. Did they post it late this year because they had to call all there friends and get there info?? I was told the hold up was Mr. Jon Leonard from Wild Turkey Foundation. They couldn't get ahold of him to get his info, because he was with Don Peay on a turkey hunt.
 
Well Tye!

Here's the Deal!

We can All Play if We'd Like!

But We can't All Win!

If these Names were Drawn Fairly & Legally which I Hope they were!

There's always gonna be Lucky People!

There's gonna be certain people from famous Organizations Draw a Tag or two!

I'm coming up on nearly 20 Years of not Drawing anything & believe me,I've played the Games and Gambled in Utah!

As I've said since time began:

I'll wait My Turn!

I'm more worried about the Quality of the Hunt/Animals going down than I am worried about when I might Draw!

Somebody is gonna be mad no matter what!

Somebody will always Holler Unfair!

I've Lost My Ass in Wendover several times!

Seen some Winners at Wendover!

I wasn't mad at the Few Winners I've seen Win!

I've had Friends draw EXPO Tags!

Was I mad at them?

HELL No!

Best of Luck to the Lucky Guys & Gals that did Pull Tags!







[font color="red"]From My Smokin Cherry Red Hot Barrel & My Dead Cold Hands I Shall go down Fighting for American Pride & Rights!
I Know I'm Out Numbered by Pusssies & Brainwashed Democrats that'll Throw Their Hands in the air & I know I can't Lick the U.S. Military by Myself when they Turn on us but I'll make
you one Guarantee,They'll be Enduring a Situation where I Hope to Hell All Americans become True Americans once again & Stand up for their Rights!
 
>I Guess there's one thing for
>sure!
>
>Nobody will ever be Pissed at
>me!
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>[font color="red"]From My Smokin Cherry Red
>Hot Barrel & My Dead
>Cold Hands I Shall go
>down Fighting for American Pride
>& Rights!
>I Know I'm Out Numbered by
>Pusssies & Brainwashed Democrats that'll
>Throw Their Hands in the
>air & I know I
>can't Lick the U.S. Military
>by Myself when they Turn
>on us but I'll make
>
>you one Guarantee,They'll be Enduring a
>Situation where I Hope to
>Hell All Americans become True
>Americans once again & Stand
>up for their Rights!

Bessy someone's always pissed at you! ;-)





Traditional >>>------->
 
I'm not mad at the winners. I just wonder how they do the draw. I've seen people win year after year ( Brock Bowden) for one example. I've seen a few people win two hunts at the same expo (Adam Eakle) for example. Then you see people that are tight with SFW (Jon Leonard) for example. Just makes you go mmmmmmm. I hope its done far, and not a lil dirty.
 
LAST EDITED ON Feb-22-14 AT 10:46AM (MST)[p]The Expo hunting tag draw is exactly like it used to be in Utah before the current preference point system. The newly termed "point creep" system.

Before the preference point system, when all sportsmen Limited Entry tags were randomly drawn, some sportsmen drew a lot more tags than others. I recall a local gentlemen that draw a very limited LE elk tag three out of five years and some his buddies couldn't and didn't ever draw an LE elk tag. Complaints about this kind of "luck" or "bad luck" are the very reason the preference point was implemented, so that "bad luck Cats" like elkassinate will eventually draw a tag. Go figure.

There is a fellow here in our little town that attends all the Banquets, MDF, SFW, RMEF, NRA, DU, NATF, you name it he goes. But......there are a lot of guys here that do the same thing. This guy is a school teacher, loves to hunt and volunteers for conservation projects, just like the rest of us. Not a lot of money to spend, not connected to any of the movers and shakers, doesn't have friends in high places. This is an absolute fact, antlerrick, Muley73, and other MM's know exactly who I'm talking about.

This gentlemen has won, 81 guns to date, and who knows how many other raffle items, over the last twenty years. It's fricking beyond weird, to the point he's now embarrassed every time he wins something, which is at every Banquet. Nobody is even ticked off anymore, everybody in the building just knows, right up front, "Bubba's going to win a gun or two again tonight".

Hell, on these Banquet raffles there's not even a computerized random drawing formula, it's just some kid putting his hand in a 5 gallon bucket full of raffle tickets and out come this guy's name again.

Some people just fall in a bucket of stink and come out with a pot of gold, no matter the odds or the draw system.

Back to the Expo, every year we go through the same concerns after the tag draws. There have been lengthy explanations, over years past, how the Expo Draws are done, who does them etc. If anyone is really fearful that something is amiss or rigged they should research the MM archives and read the posts regarding the concerns and information shared by others from the past.

DC
 
It's not rigged. No way! The reason some people draw multiple times is because they throw a crapload of money at it. I'm good friends with Adam and teased him for wasting so much money applying in that draw. But then he drew 2 tags. Both sucked, but none-the-less, 2 tags!

Lots of guys throw several hundred dollars into the pot each year. Far more than I, so they have much greater odds than I.

Brian Latturner
MonsterMuleys.com
Will you
LIKE MonsterMuleys.com on Facebook! I need a friend....
 
2lumpy can I get that's guys number? Im looking to buy a 7mm or something close to it. I would give him my raffle money so he can win a gun for me. ;) I live in Syracuse with Brock Bowden. I want to meet up with him and have lunch. Maybe if I shake his hand I can have some of his luck. Adam seems like a cool dude. I don't think he would want anything to do with a rigged draw. I was just using a couple examples of lucky a** people. I've seen people pull le deer and le elk tags at the same expo. Maybe next year ill give more money. ( probably not) :)
 
I've known Brock my entire life. To my knowledge he has no special connection. Just happens to be extremely lucky!

The first year I put in for tags at the expo was 2012. I drew a Pauns tag. Some would call that extremely lucky as well! I probably used all my luck on that one. But I'll keep putting in $20-25 each year and hope to get lucky again!
 
Ya I would say he is pretty lucky. This year he hit the San Juan elk tag. Anyone know why they took away the prize draw. Every year but this one if you put in for a 100.00+ they would put you in for guns, binos, etc.
 
The prizes went away and for what reason was not said. My opinion is that there was an agreement with money,$5 fee last year where Jim Karpowitz and SFW, MDF, and UWC met and had an agreement as to how much money could be kept by the groups and how much had to be earmarked for wildlife. That took away funds and some of those funds were used to get those prizes. Those prizes were donated at a reduced price. Just my opinion.
 
2nd year in row had cusin only put in 30bucks and drew a tag aint great. unbelivable is it now
 
You know, luck just doesn't seem to transfer well. We have people rubbing his head, kissing his ass....ets, having him write his name on their raffle ticket with their initials behind it, trading names for the evening, sending him home during the drawings, etc it defies every natural law in the universe. He wins, we rarely do.

Come on down, I'll personally arrange for you to meet a bona fide freak of nature.

I hope you draw two Expo hunt tags next year, serve you right!

DC
 
I don't Recall what the 2 Tags were that Adam Eakle Drew?

Wondering what they were?

And how He did?










[font color="red"]From My Smokin Cherry Red Hot Barrel & My Dead Cold Hands I Shall go down Fighting for American Pride & Rights!
I Know I'm Out Numbered by Pusssies & Brainwashed Democrats that'll Throw Their Hands in the air & I know I can't Lick the U.S. Military by Myself when they Turn on us but I'll make
you one Guarantee,They'll be Enduring a Situation where I Hope to Hell All Americans become True Americans once again & Stand up for their Rights!
 
>I don't Recall what the 2
>Tags were that Adam Eakle
>Drew?
>
>Wondering what they were?
>
>And how He did?
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>[font color="red"]From My Smokin Cherry Red
>Hot Barrel & My Dead
>Cold Hands I Shall go
>down Fighting for American Pride
>& Rights!
>I Know I'm Out Numbered by
>Pusssies & Brainwashed Democrats that'll
>Throw Their Hands in the
>air & I know I
>can't Lick the U.S. Military
>by Myself when they Turn
>on us but I'll make
>
>you one Guarantee,They'll be Enduring a
>Situation where I Hope to
>Hell All Americans become True
>Americans once again & Stand
>up for their Rights!

I know one was a turkey tag and can't remember the other one
 
LAST EDITED ON Feb-23-14 AT 08:13AM (MST)[p]Adam drew a turkey tag, and a Antelope tag. I think he was going to hunt the Antelope, and try to donate the turkey tag to a kid or something. Not sure how he did.
 
>LAST EDITED ON Feb-23-14
>AT 08:13?AM (MST)
>
>Adam drew a turkey tag, and
>a Antelope tag. I think
>he was going to hunt
>the Antelope, and try to
>donate the turkey tag to
>a kid or something. Not
>sure how he did.

And you think somethings up with Him drawing a couple Tags like that?












[font color="red"]From My Smokin Cherry Red Hot Barrel & My Dead Cold Hands I Shall go down Fighting for American Pride & Rights!
I Know I'm Out Numbered by Pusssies & Brainwashed Democrats that'll Throw Their Hands in the air & I know I can't Lick the U.S. Military by Myself when they Turn on us but I'll make
you one Guarantee,They'll be Enduring a Situation where I Hope to Hell All Americans become True Americans once again & Stand up for their Rights!
 
It's not luck when a computer program selects the winners.

Somebody made the program Algorithm and it will repeat itself, continuing to select from the same areas more often than others.

You see it all of the time, computer programs repeat themselves

This is why guys draw multiple times.

It is not rigged, just a flaw in the program.

If your name happens to fall in the area the computer likes to select from you have a good chance.

A #16 seeds has better odds of beating a #1 seed in March Madness than someone drawing two tags in the same year but it seems to happen all of the time in the drawing but a #16 has never beat a #1.
 
Guess I need to Contact the Guy in Nevada that Figured out what makes a One Armed Bandit Pay Out!

Last I heard though He was in Jail!










[font color="red"]From My Smokin Cherry Red Hot Barrel & My Dead Cold Hands I Shall go down Fighting for American Pride & Rights!
I Know I'm Out Numbered by Pusssies & Brainwashed Democrats that'll Throw Their Hands in the air & I know I can't Lick the U.S. Military by Myself when they Turn on us but I'll make
you one Guarantee,They'll be Enduring a Situation where I Hope to Hell All Americans become True Americans once again & Stand up for their Rights!
 
>Yep, slots are the same way.
>You get in good with
>the bosses and they can
>tell you which one is
>about to pay off...

So?

You're Sayin I need to Suck Up to PEAYDAY?










[font color="red"]From My Smokin Cherry Red Hot Barrel & My Dead Cold Hands I Shall go down Fighting for American Pride & Rights!
I Know I'm Out Numbered by Pusssies & Brainwashed Democrats that'll Throw Their Hands in the air & I know I can't Lick the U.S. Military by Myself when they Turn on us but I'll make
you one Guarantee,They'll be Enduring a Situation where I Hope to Hell All Americans become True Americans once again & Stand up for their Rights!
 
Broadside,
I believe the same thing about computers, having worked on them for 35 years. I am sure the Nevada business that does the draws, for not just Utah, but other States as well, is well aware of the "randomization" software reality. It would stand to reason that each year they change the algorithm software, as you know, it's a very simple tick to cause the sequencing to change the randomization patterns. Got to believe it's a standard procedure.

DC
 
I've put $100 into the drawing for 2 years in a row, and I've drawn a tag both times. I am also the most unconnected hunter in the sport.

A couple weeks ago I saw a post on here, talking about the odds of drawing a tag; depending on what animals you put in for. I looked into last year's numbers and came up with better odds with my selected choices. Still took a whole lot of luck since my odds were more than 1 in 800.

Best of luck next year!
 
Elk, that's funny, I have to be careful how I word things.

Lumpy, I hope that they are always trying to make it better.
That would be the right thing to do.

Maybe we should do it like the powerball ping pong lottery. Sell tickets for $10 bucks a head and do it in the main expo hall. Now that would be fun to watch, probably turn out like UFC fight night in the crowd.

I try every year but haven't gotten lucky yet...
 
I've dropped 100.00-150.00 every year since it started. I'm thinking of just opening an account till I have enough built up for a nice hunt. ;)
 
>The prizes went away and for
>what reason was not said.
> My opinion is that
>there was an agreement with
>money,$5 fee last year where
>Jim Karpowitz and SFW, MDF,
>and UWC met and had
>an agreement as to how
>much money could be kept
>by the groups and how
>much had to be earmarked
>for wildlife. That took
>away funds and some of
>those funds were used to
>get those prizes. Those
>prizes were donated at a
>reduced price. Just my
>opinion.

No such agreement has been made! They only agreed to hold a series of meetings prior to the renewal of the EXPO contract in order to consider the future use of the $5 fees. There must be some other reason. Maybe we ought to ask them.
 
>It's not luck when a computer
>program selects the winners.
>
>Somebody made the program Algorithm and
>it will repeat itself, continuing
>to select from the same
>areas more often than others.
>
>
>You see it all of the
>time, computer programs repeat themselves
>
>
>This is why guys draw multiple
>times.
>
>It is not rigged, just a
>flaw in the program.
>
>If your name happens to fall
>in the area the computer
>likes to select from you
>have a good chance.
>
>A #16 seeds has better odds
>of beating a #1 seed
>in March Madness than someone
>drawing two tags in the
>same year but it seems
>to happen all of the
>time in the drawing but
>a #16 has never beat
>a #1.

So, do they go by a person's name? Or is everyone randomly assigned a pre-drawing number? It seems a single alphabetical drawing could be more repeatable than a double numerical drawing. Maybe there's a way to "unrig" it, so to speak.
 
And the guys drawing have dropped 4 to 5 hundred or more every year. The odds are in their favor. Not saying that is what happening, But it sure could be. So pony up more cash on that next expo and see if it works for you. LOL

"I have found if you go the extra mile it's Never crowded".
>[Font][Font color = "green"]Life member of
>the MM green signature club.[font/]
 
LAST EDITED ON Feb-25-14 AT 01:28PM (MST)[p]LAST EDITED ON Feb-25-14 AT 01:21?PM (MST)

>Elk, that's funny, I have to
>be careful how I word
>things.
>
>Lumpy, I hope that they
>are always trying to make
>it better.
>That would be the right thing
>to do.
>
>Maybe we should do it like
>the powerball ping pong lottery.
> Sell tickets for $10
>bucks a head and do
>it in the main expo
>hall. Now that would
>be fun to watch, probably
>turn out like UFC fight
>night in the crowd.
>
>I try every year but haven't
>gotten lucky yet...

Now I'm embarrassed! I didn't mean it to be funny, but I'm glad you got a kick out of it. I obviously don't know how algorithms work and thought a double draw would help eliminate some of the repetition. However, now that I think about it, repetition is as much a part of luck as is randomness and it isn't any more fair to try to eliminate some of it than it is to try to increase some of it. IMHO, of course.

Regarding holding the draw in the main EXPO hall, that would be a great idea, if it could be done. I'd bet that there would be people attending the EXPO just to see it. However, I'm not sure I'd want to be there if I was one of the winners! I might not get out of there alive or with all body parts intact.

As it is now, the drawing is held at the Salt Lake DWR office on the Tuesday after the EXPO at 11:00-11:30 with generally only a few "interested" parties attending although anyone can. And it's only a 15 minute computer process. It's not well known, but whether or not that's an intentional move for whatever reason, I couldn't say. (Not enough room? too formal? security?) I tried to get there this year, but babysitting 3 grandkids took priority. Maybe next year after my wife retires!
 
Sorry Elkfromabove, I was talking to Elkassasin about it being funny that we needed to suck up to PEAYDay.

I don't know what they sort by, haven't seen the program but it's obvious when you see the repetition of things. Like 2Lumpy says, they are probably aware of it and continue to make changes each year to make it more and more random.

This year the computer seemed to like Vernal, for what it's worth, or LaPoint, I mean how many people from LaPoint attended the expo and 5 guys from there drew.

And yes there are people involved with SFW and MDF that draw and there are people that hate SFW and MDF that Draw. I don't think its rigged, just a flaw in the way the computer selects.

I personally think the most random way is the Ping Pong Balls

If they try and adjust it, maybe next year the computer will like the word "Broadside" or "Ass" for whatever reason. LOL
 
>Sorry Elkfromabove, I was talking
>to Elkassasin about it being
>funny that we needed to
>suck up to PEAYDay.
>
>I don't know what they sort
>by, haven't seen the program
>but it's obvious when you
>see the repetition of things.
> Like 2Lumpy says, they
>are probably aware of it
>and continue to make changes
>each year to make it
>more and more random.
>
>This year the computer seemed to
>like Vernal, for what it's
>worth, or LaPoint, I mean
>how many people from LaPoint
>attended the expo and 5
>guys from there drew.
>
>And yes there are people involved
>with SFW and MDF that
>draw and there are people
>that hate SFW and MDF
>that Draw. I don't
>think its rigged, just a
>flaw in the way the
>computer selects.
>
>I personally think the most random
>way is the Ping Pong
>Balls
>
>If they try and adjust it,
>maybe next year the computer
>will like the word "Broadside"
>or "Ass" for whatever reason.
>LOL


Hey Broadside!

Don't Try Shiftin the Blame on Me!:D:D:D









[font color="red"]From My Smokin Cherry Red Hot Barrel & My Dead Cold Hands I Shall go down Fighting for American Pride & Rights!
I Know I'm Out Numbered by Pusssies & Brainwashed Democrats that'll Throw Their Hands in the air & I know I can't Lick the U.S. Military by Myself when they Turn on us but I'll make
you one Guarantee,They'll be Enduring a Situation where I Hope to Hell All Americans become True Americans once again & Stand up for their Rights!
 

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