Draw odds are not easy math formulas.
I agree with that, and using either of Gohunt or Huntin Fool, you shouldn't just blindly follow what they show. For me, Gohunt is just part of the research. There is a lot more that goes into actually deciding what/where to apply. But why should I go research every little detail about draw odds when there is a tool that gives me a good indication of the odds? I can then focus my research on some of the other items that I want to have in a hunt.
Yes it is you divide the number of tags vs the number of applicants and move the decimal over 2 places and that's your percentage
God I hope everyone that I’m competing for tags with in the west thinks like you!
You hope they can do math?
No I hope they’re ignorant enough to think that draw odds = dividing the number of tags by applicants and moving the decimal over. Those are the kinda people who feed the game and fish budget without being in the way of me drawing a tag.
The pushback you'll get is that complex draw systems like AZ can't be viewed simply by applicants/permits. You have two choices that really matter for each application, and there are three draw cycles that look at applications differently.
I do agree while not having an huntin fool
So much of their advice is a crock of BS . You must use your own judgment as best possible !
Yea that's exactly how you figure out the percentage. Ignorant is being dumb enough to pay someone to figure it out for you and think they aren't protecting their own favorite areas to hunt on those platforms.
There really isn’t any draw system for NR that can be viewed that simply. Even NM you have to understand which ones will have available tags and why. That’s why I love guys like bookhead cuz they aren’t in line to even get tags most of the time when they put in.
Yea there are several systems you can view the applicants vs tags also any info these sites like hunting fool and gohunt have is all public info that they have obtained. Go put your head back in the sand
Please name one situation in any state for NR applicants where the odds of drawing a tag are total tags divided by applicants.
Every state
Yes you are correct. The info is out there publicly but it takes a significant amount of compiling for it to be useful. My time is valuable enough where I am much much better off spending $100 a year on a subscription to have that data then compiling it myself. I’m guessing by my interactions with you thus far your time probably isn’t overly valuable so you might be money ahead to spend a few dozen hours of your time with it and save yourself the $100.
Keep sending them your money bud. Those of us that are in line for tags appreciate it.
A few dozen hrs ? I know where I want to hunt in the states I apply that's all I need to know
Obviously I was talking about random odds and tags/applicants as a whole. Needed points to draw is even easier to see
So will go hunt give you better odds for your sheep tag? Nope your odds are what they are. And what 2 deer units I bet I can figure it out pretty quick if you tell me the amount of points you have
What do you mean you can't one look at the NM website shows the quota for every area the percentage of those tags distributed to nr and residents and the number of applicants
Based on how many pp tags alloted for max pt guys, yes, I put in for the toughest, 14k foot hunt. I have 14 deer pts. So a26, or a9. But I still want to see my odds. Elk? 15 pts. Killed my tule bull 16 years ago.
I don't play nm. Only 7% go to nr. I would buy a landowner tag and Have multiple bulls and lopes entered in the book.
What state for the deer?
You have 100% draw odds for a26 or a9 with 14 points next brain buster
NM has 3 choices. So you would have to figure out how many draw on what choice and then are removed from the draw and actually weren’t in against you for their second or third. Or just third if they drew second. You can’t compute even NM draw odds and they are by far the simplest. Also there’s an outfitter draw and depending on the amount of tags often times there’s only one in that and not in the non guided draw. There are literally tens of thousands of guys putting in apps for tags in states across the west every year with ZERO chance of drawing them. Happens in WY all the time, even in AZ. The desert sheep tag I drew last year had 90 some NR putting in for it that had zero chance of drawing it.
I know that. But max sheep? 14 tule pts. 9 lope pts. ???? Who knows. I am bow only so I play the odds.just get me a tag so I can hunt.
It's literally all on the NM website took me 15 seconds to find it
I get that.. the only point I'm making is its not impossible to figure this stuff out on your own it's easier to pay somone sure but not hard to figure out
I don't play nm. I buy landowner tags.
I know I'm responding to yotebuster
Exactly, a guy can over analyze and over analyze. Some of my best tags were drawn with the least % chances, but was the tag & season I wanted the most. Has worked out for me multiple times-lots of luck involved too. I’ve been fortunate in the draws.
I hear ya but also would say that putting the 1 or 3 most talked about hunts for your choices can leave a lot of people without tags. My brother puts down the top things recommended by Huntin fool for every state every year. He’s drawn 1-2 good tags in 20+ years of applying that he didn’t earn through preference points. I try to really analyze the numbers and put choices that are exceptional yet more realistic. Might seem that a 1:200 and a 1:800 odds sheep tag are both snow balls chances in hell, and that’s probably true, but fact of the matter is you can draw that 1:200 tag or others like it 4 times for every 1;800 tag. Will you? Prob not. I’ve drawn atleast 12-15 tags that were 1:50 odds or more, but if there’s a tag that is 1:1000 and one that’s 1:100 my brother is probably putting the former and I’m putting the latter. Both are gonna be incredible hunts, but a lot of times people will just see the one is harder to draw so they assume it’s better and then more people see that so they assume same and it likely is barely if any better then the next tier down. I use epic and online research to verify things as well as get ideas. I realize what you are saying is over the years you’ve grown bored with that and I may as well, but I do feel there’s some value in crunching numbers.
