Group Odds ?

[grizzmoose]

Hi Guys,

I have 9 points for elk and a friend of mine wants to put in as a group for the Wasatch muzz hunt. I'm pretty sure he doesnt have any points though. I know this impacts my odds of drawing, but I'm not totally sure how the math works. Are my odds of drawings essentially cut in half, or does it not really work like that? If someone could explain how it works, I'd really appreciate it.

 

[elkfromabove]

LAST EDITED ON Jan-29-15 AT 08:34PM (MST)[p]>Hi Guys,
>
>I have 9 points for elk
>and a friend of mine
>wants to put in as
>a group for the Wasatch
>muzz hunt. I'm pretty
>sure he doesnt have any
>points though. I know
>this impacts my odds of
>drawing, but I'm not totally
>sure how the math works.
> Are my odds of
>drawings essentially cut in half,
>or does it not really
>work like that? If
>someone could explain how it
>works, I'd really appreciate it.
>
1/2 - If you were to apply alone, you would have 10 chances to draw a low number, 1 chance per point plus 1 chance for the current application.

But if you apply with your friend, they combine your points plus 1 per applicant for the current application, then divide by the number of applicants and then round it down. So, in your case it would be 11/2 = 5.5 rounded down to 5.

Edit: EMD (below) is correct. I didn't go that far into the system because the true odds are impossible to predict. We don't know the tag numbers nor do we know who or how many are applying for each unit or hunt. Besides, I didn't want to discourage you with Utah's nutty system.

 

[ElkManDan]

If trends follow your odds are worse than half if you put in with your friend. The last few years some of the individuals with 9 points going into the draw were in the bonus tag pool and therefore odds of drawing a muzzy tag with 9 points over the last 3 years ranged from 45 to 85%. With 4 points (9/2 and then rounded down) going into the draw your odds were about 13%. You'd be a pretty dang good friend to put in with him because it would really limit your odds of drawing.

That being said, with the new muzzy season and bad archery dates I wouldn't be surprised if all the bonus tags are gone before they get to 9 points and your odds of drawing in the random draw with 9 points would probably be around 25 - 30%

 

[BrowningRage]

I'd tell your friend that he can put in on his own, you on your own, and when you draw the tag, he is more than welcome to go along on the trip.

I'd do this for a couple reasons:

First of all, you won't get a tag if you put in with him. I know you have a 'chance', but let's just face it, you won't get it.

Secondly, filling two tags is a tall order no matter what the hunt is, let alone a muzzy elk tag. Your odds of a successful hunt are cut in half if you have two tags to fill, rather than just one.

Tell him if he really wants to be hunting with you, he can be a good friend and tag along on your hunt. That's the only real chance you guys have of getting that tag and hunting together this year.

"Therefore, wo be unto him that is at ease in Zion!" 2 Ne. 28: 24

 

[Vanilla]

Wasatch muzzy is an awesome hunt. I've helped two brothers each of the last two years. But it is a pretty tough hunt. Harvest rate was about 60% last year.

You are a long ways from drawing as a group. Probably 6-7 years. But even if you could this year, I would not want the pressure of TWO tags to fill. Better idea would be for you to draw, him to tag along and learn the unit some, then you return the favor when it's his turn down the line. I had an absolute blast the last two years not carrying around a gun.